Is Zirkzee Good Enough?

Welcome back to The Transfer Flow.

I did a small thread on Twitter yesterday looking at Bologna’s Joshua Zirkzee and whether he would be a good fit for Arsenal or Manchester United. (Or Chelsea, or any top PL club, really.)

On the surface, a lot of things make sense. He just turned 23 in May and played nearly 32 90s for a team that will be in the Champions League next season. (The mighty Bologna.) He absolutely passes the eye test for scouts at 1.93m tall, with fairly good technical ability and plenty of strength and pace on display to survive in Serie A.

It’s only when you get to the stats that the problems arise.

When parsing player valuations and potential transfers, it helps to have a consistent framework to work from. I introduced one we still use regularly back in 2017 when discussing how to value a baby Kylian Mbappe. But when it comes to looking at transfers from the outside and answering the key question, “does this make sense?” there’s a slightly different approach.

Looking at the data and knowing Zirkzee has been a centre forward, what are you getting? Last season it was average goal output, shots from poor locations for a CF, and not a lot of dribbles. But… very high pressure output, and good creativity for his teammates in the Open Play xG created (for the old stats nerds, think open play Key Passes or Shot Assists).

Looking at the scouting tape (and not just highlights on YouTube), you see he’s playing a funky link-up/hold-up role, but despite his height, he isn’t winning anything in the air, and he’s also not a high volume dribbler. And the turnover numbers indicate he leaks possession constantly. Maybe that’s the role, but the same problems existed back at Anderlecht.

Sky has him with a rumoured release clause €40M, which these days would be great value if you were convinced he’s a good, young CF now and future starter for your PL team.

However, the question we have to ask now is, “Who is fighting for this? What story are they telling to justify paying the release?” And that’s where this rumour falls apart for me.

Maybe you sort of waive away the league transition and agree to assume Italy Serie A is as good as EPL. You still aren’t buying a high volume scorer or a truly elite creator in one of your forward positions.

Maybe you think his role at Bologna is holding him back? His last two seasons are both at Bologna and are mostly the same. Maybe he is the perfect player for the role he plays? Fair enough, but among all the interested teams, who actually needs a player that plays that role? Coaches will not adjust their tactics on a consistent basis for this type of output.

Maybe he could do better in a different tactical system… but you’re going to pay a price to find out. And if you were the one fighting for this in the recruitment meetings, that price could be your job if he washes out after a year or two. Maybe if you believe all of the above and he’s staying in Italy, you pay that release clause thinking he can become more than his current output. But no smart teams are plonking down €40M for what he did last year. €25M would probably be the point at which I’d feel like I’m getting priced into that deal in the current market.

Rumours and News

• Benjamin Sesko is staying in Leipzig, as reported by basically everyone. Probably the right choice, but depending on price the top PL teams will feel they missed out on this one.

• Phil Foden is rumoured to be in line for £375K a week. Given he was one of the best five players in the PL last season and he’s just entering his prime, that seems mostly fair?

• Bayern are apparently moving forward with buying Fulham’s Joao Palhinha for £30M. I wanted to hate on this, but if you just want someone to clean things up behind all the good players, this doesn’t feel that bad. OTOH Fulham suggesting he’s worth twice what Bayern are offering seems dubious, even when there are too few good DMs around.

• Frenkie de Jong is out of the Dutch squad for Euros and Ian Maatsen is in. I think Maatsen is very exciting, so Chelsea are probably rubbing their hands together at the thought of him being in the Big Shop Window while needing to sell.

• Chelsea have allegedly agreed terms with Crystal Palace’s Michael Olise. We like Olise, and he correctly has many admirers across Europe right now. I sense Palace want to keep him and see what Glasner can with a full pre-season with the squad this season, which in turn means Chelsea are going to pay A LOT to get him out there.

• Romano says Bruno’s release clause is still valid. Look for a deeper dive on Bruno and Douglas Luiz (whose agent seems to have him in the transfer market every summer, even when no one is really interested) in here tomorrow.

• Sporting Lisbon reportedly interested in buying Wolves winger Chiquinho (as reported by O Jojo). This rumour is really only included here because I wanted to type ‘Chiquinho.’

• Bayer Leverkusen’s Jonathan Tah, one of the largest humans we have ever stood next to on a pitch, has apparently agreed to move to Bayern Munich this summer. We’ve been touting him as a CL-ready defender since about 2017. Sometimes it just takes the uh… 7 additional seasons for the hype to pay off.

• Oh, and I know he seems to be a walking punchline unto himself, but Engerland forward Harold Kane was stupendously good at Bayern Munich last season. Seriously, WOW.