Which left back would you buy?

There are a lot of big clubs in the market for a new left back this summer, and there happen to be two excellent ones at mid-table Premier League clubs. Bournemouth and Fulham’s directors of football have probably already resigned themselves to having to sell, and are now just hoping the market is robust enough for them to maximize return.

Milos Kerkez and Antonee Robinson are already getting linked to every rich club around, and it seems like a foregone conclusion that one of them will go to Liverpool. There are probably one or two other clubs currently having an internal debate about which one of these players they’d like to prioritize going after early in the window. So I thought it would be fun do to a little comparison.

One of the most interesting discrepancies is that Robinson has a much higher volume of possession-adjusted tackles and interceptions, but the ones that Kerkez is winning are having a more positive OBV impact for his team. Robinson is just generally creating more and considerably better in the air.

Kerkez has captured a lot of attention for his spectacular assists this season, and he’s certainly delivering a lot of crosses into high-value areas.

But Robinson is rinsing him (and everyone else) in this area, with 10 assists this season. There’s no more effective crosser in the entire Premier League.

I decided to have a little dig into some other numbers that I’d want to evaluate if I was putting together a scouting report on a fullback, and Robinson’s beating Kerkez in most areas.

Though it’s interesting that Kerkez is passing either forwards or backwards so frequently, and sideways so infrequently relative to Robinson. My next step would be to look into whether that’s down to team style or decision-making. Robinson’s Pass OBV is a lot better than Kerkez’s, and I suspect he’s making better choices with the ball at his feet.

For some context, here’s the attacking style radar for both teams. Bournemouth’s attack has been generally quite a bit better than Fulham’s this season, in case you were wondering if Robinson’s numbers are just being inflated by his coach or teammates.

So the answer is Robinson, right? Well, it’s not that simple. Kerkez is 21 years old and in just his second season in English football, while Robinson is 27 and has required quite a few seasons of playing regularly for Fulham to get to this level. Robinson is likely near his peak and may decline before the end of his next contract. Kerkez might not even hit his peak in that same timeframe.

Kerkez is also likely to be the less expensive player for PSR purposes, even if he ends up going for a larger fee. If Robinson is sold for £30m and signs a 5-year contract that runs until his age 32 season, his transfer fee will count as £6m per season on the books. If Kerkez is sold for £40m, but signs a 7-year contract because he’s a much younger player, his amortized fee on the books is £5.7m per season.

Which player is the better buy probably depends on the rest of your squad construction and where your team is in its competitive window and on age curves. Robinson will probably be the better player next season, but Kerkez will almost certainly be the more productive player over the life of the contract.

If I was Liverpool, I’d push all-in on win now, given that you’ve only got two more years of Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk on your team and performing at top level. This might be a bit of a controversial take; I understand the argument that they should get younger and ensure they can remain competitive into a new era. But there’s no guarantee you have stars like this again anytime soon, and I think Liverpool should push the accelerator to the floor until the wheels fall off. —KM

Over on the Premium newsletter, Ted details his bets for the Premier League and Championship weekend, with a lot of advice on stuff you should avoid and why as we get into dead rubber territory for quite a few teams. There’s still some decent value to be found, though, and Ted’s made quite a bit of money betting against Manchester City this season.

If you want Ted’s bets and reasoning behind them in your inbox every week, you can upgrade here.

Games we’re watching

Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund — I wouldn’t normally expect this one to be terribly competitive, but Bayern are a bit banged up and behind in their Champions League tie, so they need to rest a bunch of players. An upset win for Dortmund gets them back into the race for CL places.

Real Betis vs. Villarreal — Two really entertaining teams, and in a dead heat for what is likely to be Spain’s final Champions League place.

Atalanta vs. Bologna — Bologna lost their manager to Juventus, sold Josh Zirkzee to Man United, and they’re… on basically the exact same points-per-game and goal differential. Lmao, lol. Anyway, huge game in the top 4 race, Atalanta is actually in danger of falling out of a CL place after 3 consecutive losses.

Monaco vs. Marseille — Potential banger here. Lots of overlap with the main PL and Bundesliga windows here and I think I’ll watch this instead. Every race for CL places is crazy at the moment; these teams sit 2nd and 3rd, but with 4 teams behind them in striking distance.

Newcastle vs. Manchester United — The Prem has by far the least interesting matchups this weekend. I guess this is the best one?

Stuff we’re reading

Oliver Kell at Total Football Analysis breaks down the game of Adam Wharton, who Crystal Palace are going to get a lot of offers for this summer.

Grace Robertson at Grace On Football offers up some optimism for the England tenure of Thomas Tuchel.

Llew Davies at Scouted dug into tracking data to find players who fit a profile they’re calling the “developer,” midfielders who get things progressing forward with smart runs.

Keiron O’Connor at Swiss Ramble analyzes the finances of Chelsea, who got to pretend they didn’t lose £70m by moving assets between companies they own.

Daniel Taylor at The Athletic explains why Liam Delap is about to be the subject of a large bidding war.

Josh Bland at Against The Run Of Play wonders what’s so nostalgic about classic football sticker albums.

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