Which EPL players are in great form over the last 10 games?

We’re now deep enough into the Premier League season that things have shifted pretty significantly from early season form and narratives. So I got the idea to set a cutoff of right around the holiday period — about 2 months, and 10 games for most teams — and see who’s been balling since then. I’ve picked out a few different categories to look at so guys at several positions get some love.

A note: I could have included Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk for a couple of these, but you already know they’re the best players in the league and the cornerstones for the heavy title favorites. They also started the season just as strong as they’re playing right now. They’re both world XI dudes at the moment.

OK, on to slightly more surprising top performers. —KM

xG + xA: Jean-Philippe Mateta

He was mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter as being on excellent form for Crystal Palace, but I’m not sure I realized exactly how good. His 0.73 xG + xA over the last 2 months is ahead of even Salah and Alexander Isak.

Mateta was very good last year with 16 Premier League goals, and it’s remarkable how dramatic his mid-career turnaround has been. In his first 3 seasons and 58 Premier League appearances for Palace, Mateta scored 8 goals. He’s got 27 in his last 61 league games.

Ball-winning: Idrissa Gana Gueye

Everton fans were not too pleased with me for saying that Gueye shouldn’t be starting for them anymore and accused me of not watching the games. I think we had a bit of a misunderstanding. It’s not that I think Gueye isn’t good enough to play for Everton at the moment — obviously he is one of the best ball-winning midfielders in the Premier League — it’s that Everton ostensibly has ambitions beyond the current moment.

This is a club with new ownership that’s putting the club on a stable financial footing, and that’s opening a brand new stadium next season. They spent many years as a fixture in Europe, and even finished top 4 once in the Premier League era. Their fans would (very credibly!) argue that they’re historically one of the biggest teams in the country. Everton’s ambition can and should be to qualify for Europe almost every season, and someone who is currently 35 is not going to be a part of the next Everton side reaching that accomplishment.

Everton has already secured safety, and it’s time to start thinking about the next long-term project. It doesn’t really matter if Gueye is better than Tim Iroegbunam right now. Averaging 1.5 points per game instead of 1 for the rest of the season means nothing to Everton. There is no world in which giving a 35-year-old starts is moving them closer to reaching top 7 in two years.

Sorry for the massive sidebar. Gueye is winning a high volume of tackles and interceptions, a high percentage of tackles, and his ball-winning is helping his team get points right now.

OBV: Yankuba Minteh

Will we stop doing this bit for the rest of the season? Well, I’ll try to control myself, but I can’t speak for Ted. I looked for someone else to highlight but he’s actually just the leader in StatsBomb’s OBV model over the last two months. This is the same shape as his season-long radar, just better in every way. The kid’s improving at a rapid rate.

Playmaking: Mikkel Damsgaard and Trent Alexander-Arnold

I have no idea how Brentford is going to react to the vultures circling over their entire squad this summer. They managed to keep the gang together last year, but the bids are likely to be a bit too big for their stars this time around, especially Mikkel Damsgaard.

Bryan Mbeumo might get more hype and Yoane Wissa is bagging the goals, but this is the dude making everything tick. Mikkel Damsgaard is an outrageously high value passer and dribbler in the center of the park, and Europe’s biggest clubs are going to be salivating over what he can bring to their attack.

I know I said at the top I was leaving out some Liverpool stars due to a heavy “no duh” factor, but Trent Alexander-Arnold is on such outrageous form that I couldn’t omit him. He’s top of the entire league in deep progressions over this timeframe, and also #1 in a couple important metrics that don’t make the radar: open play passes into the box and line-breaking passes completed.

Generally playing center back well: Dean Huijsen

The standout guys in one particular stat don’t usually perform great at the others when it comes to center back (besides Virgil). But one guy who seems to be pretty good at everything is Bournemouth’s Dean Huijsen, who is just 19 years old.

Virgil’s the only other player who’s giving their team anything resembling this combination of ball winning, aerial ability, and passing quality. He only cost £13m. Beyond outrageous value for money.

Goalkeeping: Alphonse Areola

This one surprised me. Areola had a poor start to West Ham’s season while their defense was out of sorts under Julien Lopetegui, but he’s looking a lot more confident in Graham Potter’s better structured setup. He’s not coming off his line at all — either in possession or to make claims — and it seems to be leading to much better outcomes.

Most coaches would love to have an Ederson at their disposal, but forcing more traditional goalkeepers to play like that often has disastrous consequences. Adjusting to get value out of the skills your players do have seems a lot smarter.

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