Can West Ham afford this gamble?

All transfers involve some element of risk, but West Ham United are heading to the roulette table and putting most of their bankroll on red. If Fabrizio Romano is to be believed, the Hammers have bid £30m for Aston Villa striker Jhon Duran and are actively involved in negotiations to get a deal done.

I’m imaging one hell of a fight in the West Ham scouting department ala Brad Pitt and the old guy in the movie you’ve all seen. On one side, there’s the nerds, saying this guy is too high risk for us to drop £30m on. You’re already gambling signing any striker for that kind of money who only scored 5 goals last season, but Duran did it running hot. He gets very few high percentage looks.

There are some elements of his data profile that make him look a little better. He’s good at carrying the ball forward. His shot volume on a per 90 basis isn’t bad. But this still isn’t an obvious £30m player.

On the other side of the table is a guy going “just watch him, you dork.” And yeah, this is a player whose highlights absolutely pop. Duran’s combination of size and pace is impressive. He can hold off a big defender with his back to goal and play a good layoff pass. He can dribble past his man. His shot power with his left foot is some Thor’s hammer type shit. He’s got a beautiful swing Billy, the ball just explodes off his bat when he makes contact.

Sorry for the Moneyball joke, but I understand how a scout can watch Duran and think that this is a guy who has all the tools to become one of the best strikers in the Premier League. But he isn’t right now. He’s not even close, which is why Aston Villa are negotiating to sell him. And for West Ham, specifically, this is a gamble they can’t afford to take.

West Ham’s current center forwards are 34-year-old Michail Antonio and 32-year-old Danny Ings, both of whom appear to be in rapid decline. Jarrod Bowen has proven capable of playing center forward competently, but he’s a superstar on the right and should play there when possible. This is not a team that is in a position to shoot for the moon on a mega high variance prospect.

If Newcastle or Tottenham was making this move, I still wouldn’t like it, but I’d be more inclined to say that it’s OK for them to take a wild swing. West Ham is a team that needs to get a prime age dude they’re really confident can score 10 league goals.

Feel free to pull this up to dunk on me when Duran turns into The Next Falcao, I won’t get mad. The thing with putting it all on red is it hits 50% of the time. That doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.

—KM

News and Rumours

• A quick correction to yesterday’s newsletter: Viktor Gyökeres’ release clause is £86m, not £68m. The numbers got turned around in Kim’s head. That’s quite a difference! Arsenal probably shouldn’t pay that much.

• I (Ted) am catching a great deal of stick in both TTF Slack and social media for saying Preseason Doesn’t Matter yesterday, as newfound/oldfound favourites like Matt “Baba” O’Riley and Nkunku proved to be an enjoyable watch for some.
  
  I have heard your “Bitch, don’t kill my vibe,” sentiments and flatly rejected them. Talk to us when the season begins.

• While I’ve been trying to talk both Arsenal fans and Arsenal’s recruitment team [wave] into my Fabian Ruiz romance, I also kind of talked myself into Nico Williams during the Euros. Which is almost always a bad idea and yet seems like a lot of fun at the same time. The current situ is: Arsenal still (allegedly) have interest, we know that if he goes it will be for the amount at the release clause, and it’s probably up to the player whether he stays in Spain or goes to one of the various other suitors.

• Atletico Madrid are “extremely confident” of securing a deal for Chelsea’s Conor Gallagher? That’s some transfer whiplash for you, right there.

• Respect to Fabrizio and team if he’s getting this level of detail about how transfers in Italy will be paid. This is what he reported on Matias Soule to Roma (not Leicester).
  
  There’s no distance, agreement in place just being completed on formal details with Juventus — as revealed tonight.

  ◉ €26m fixed fee.

  ◉ €2m easy add-ons.

  ◉ €2m difficult add-ons.

  ◉ 10% future sale percentage.

• In Negotiations Through the Press news, we have the latest on de Ligt from Sky Germany.
  
  Manchester United have offered just under 40m euros (£33.6m) for Netherlands centre-back Matthijs de Ligt but Bayern Munich will not accept less than 50m euros (£42.2m) plus add-ons for the 24-year-old.
  
  de Ligt’s future performance is a pretty big wild card, and his wages are probably massive as well, so we’ll see where this ends up.

• Paul Gorst says Trent’s going to sign a new contract at Liverpool, because of course he is.

• Fulham are nearing agreement with Arsenal for Emile Smith Rowe. The total package price is allegedly around £35M, probably laden with incentive clauses. We are cautiously optimistic about ESR’s future, and it appears Fulham are too.

• Newcastle’s reported offer for Malick Thiaw is “about £35M.” Expect the Italian team to hold out for considerably more before letting the physically gifted 22yo centerback go.

• Rangers are willing to listen to offers for Todd Cantwell, who is now 26. Remember when he was the next big thing coming out of Norwich? Us too.

• Someone in a group chat went to Iceland this week, and I was reminded that Everton paid £42.5M for a nearly 28-yo Gylfi Sigurdsson in summer 2017. I dubbed it The Welsh Job. We just don’t see moves that dumb in England any more. I miss them. But not Gylfi because, well… you know.

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