Weekend of the Underdogs, and Chelsea

And more odd choices from team social media

Author

Ted Knutson
December 09, 2024 • Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

I had the best betting weekend of the season, finishing +6 on all wagers across the Premier League and Championship. I’m due to post updated stats tomorrow in the midweek Variance Betting edition covering the Championship and UEFA CL. If you want to get access to the analysis and support our project, the link to the premium subscription is here.

For those of you unfamiliar, +6 on 13 wagers (two wins in the Champ were half wins) is a LOT. Even at relatively small stakes, that’s over £1100 in winnings.

But, given there’s a giant slate of games coming this week, and I had a very busy, wind-aided energy drain of a weekend, forgive me if the roundup is a little more succinct than usual.

Which is a shame, because often the best writing and analysis comes out when basically EVERY big team struggles like they did this weekend.

BENDER OF THE WEEKEND. Brentford had a six-goal festival at home again, and still couldn’t win back their title belt.

The world is a strange place.

And so are Spurs.

Cucurella spotted Spurs a two-goal lead (the first with an AMAZING finish from Dom Solanke, and the second a seeing-eye wurm-burner from Kulusevski that snuck into the bottom corner). I mean… technically, that’s a bit harsh on Cucurella because he merely gave away the possessions that lead to the goals, but he was a bit of a dick with his body language as he came over to the sideline to change his boots.

BUT ALSO… who among you wouldn’t be confused and frustrated and totally fucking embarrassed if that happened to you in front of 63000 fans and the entire world viewing audience? Football is a tough sport.

Chelsea’s home highlights CUT OUT BOTH SLIPS for the first goal. He apparently “got nabbed” by Johnson for the first goal.

It’s like cutting out Steven Gerrard’s slip at Anfield against Chelsea and pretending… anything else happened.

Chelsea’s social media people can move from their current roles to new roles in Elon Musk’s American Government Pravda department whenever they are ready. Maybe they kept the Abramovic-era social media team, and have been doing this since before YouTube existed? Who knows. Kultur can be sustained a surprisingly long time.

Thankfully for Chelsea fans, Sancho hammered one in off the far post to claw one back early, setting up the absurdity of the second half nicely.

The uh… Spurs “defending” for the two penalties… my goodness. At least we got the slickest panenka in ages from 🥶 Palmer out of it, right?

Chelsea fans were ready to write off Enzo Fernandez a month ago, but with three goals since just the last international break, he’s now he’s a goal-scoring 8, and who doesn’t love that?

And I won my intuition bet against Spurs defending, despite Cucurella’s shoe problems. Better lucky than good sometimes.

xG on this match was weirdly about even for both teams, and a LOT happened that won’t be contained in the short highlights above. Feel free to watch the extended director’s cut on YT somewhere, but be aware that the bloody team social media teams are censoring important moments now, the donkeys.

THIRTY YEARS. Forest’s first win at Old Trafford in 30 years happened on Saturday. Given all that time Forest were not actually in the Premier League, now we can restart the clock and not care about this stupid stat any more.

[Programming Note: We’ll cover Dan Ashworth leaving United on the Monday pod.]

What we DO care about, however, is Milenkovic scoring a header off a corner in the first two minutes of the match. Did a certain gloriously attractive transfer duo predict that the large lad with great aerial ability might be useful to this team in the summer? Maybe…

Did we also expect him to come good at Old Trafford?

Look, the summertime predictions aren’t that specific. Lower your expectations.

I found the xGChain passing map for United really interesting.

There is a LOT of central congestion and relative success here (though a rebound shot into a open goal will do that), but I’m curious if this is more accidental, or the slow formation of a consistent plan. United’s build-up has been flaccid thus far under Amorim, as he figures out which parts work and which fail (see Everton example below, where most of their success came off pressing blowups from Amad).

ANYWAY, back to this match… it was weird and wonderful for non-United fans, though special credit should be given for Bruno Fernandes’ recovery back to central position for his goal - that’s pretty unusual and clever.

And the world really needs to take note of Chris Wood, who is in the form of his life (scoring 2*xG) and creating So. Many. Problems. for opposing defenses, in the best of ways.

Arsenal fans love to melt down. I don’t want to say they are the best at it, because Liverpool and Spurs fans keep this particular category very competitive, but bumps are catastrophes and molehills are often mountains.

This week’s meltdown seems to have taken the Set Piece FC title they so loved in midweek (and they scored off another corner here) and turned it into a rod to self-flagellate.

My take is that:

1. Fulham are actually pretty good defensively, as noted by both their goals conceded table position and the difficulty other good teams have had beating them this season, and…

 
2. It is very difficult to have great open play creation when you have a ton of defensive injuries, especially to your fullbacks. Just ask Pep! Arsenal’s most important side is their right one, where Saka and Odegaard operate. Missing a functional fullback to pair with them (and Partey is barely a functional midfielder at this point, let alone a fullback), is a big fucking deal.

The good news is the shots were 2 to 12 in Arsenal’s favour.

2 shots, away, in a Premier League match. A bit game-state-aided, but still 🧑‍🍳💋.

I think we’ve probably covered Man City’s problems enough for now. And maybe Palace’s too. Both of these teams are holding on with their fingernails, waiting for the transfer window to open.

Ongoing YT Social Clips Note: Palace’s walk out intro was 25! seconds this week on a 2:54 highlight. AND THEY HAD 25 SECONDS OF OUTRO. Your team played Premier League giants to a standstill, and you cut 30% of the highlight time off. What are you doing? Why?

COKE-FUELLED HOME FORM CONTINUES FOR BEES.

We have had to upgrade the Brentford Home Match drug of choice.

Note: We regret any suggestion that cocaine is an acceptable drug or that the English upper class does far too much of it. We also regret not betting on the Over in this match. Thank you for your understanding.

The Collins goal in this one is effectively a Brentford kickoff routine that comes from a GK dead ball in their own half, and leads directly to a Bees goal.

Even now, teams rarely come close to optimising dead ball/restart outcomes at any level.

And just wait until all these motherfuckers start generating long throws. (FYI: Ipswich scored off one this weekend.)

Owners and Directors of Football: If you want to throw consulting money my way, I will help your team succeed more in these phases. I built the Brentford program and Jover at Arsenal innovates on a lot of my work. But we bring goals, so it ain’t cheap.

Reply to this email to get in touch. - TK

Guess which game was the one bet that I lost in the Premier League this weekend? GUESS!

I’m not even mad, I’m just disappointed.

The highlights of Duran’s work for the first goal and then Villa trying to find a second are worth your time for entertainment purposes only.

It feels like something might be cooking here for Leicester, but I want more info before I hop in.

The Vardy goal was a lucky one that came off a shot deflection that fell to his feet. But the last one… high press destruction and then Vardy unselfishly passes for the equaliser. Very very much not the first time we have seen shit like that from the Brighton defense in possession this season.

Also, Brighton are really struggling with the minnows in the league. They have drawn matches against all four teams they have faced in the bottom 5. That will keep you out of the CL spots.

I don’t think Ipswich can stay up like this, especially when playing at home, but I’m also not sure what they can or should do differently that would produce better results.

Iraola is definitely the hot name in all of the Big Team head coach rumours now. And deservedly so.

—TK

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