We've reached Maximum Spursy

Welcome to the October International Break. If that makes you sad, it’s clear you don’t work in football or gambling. That last stint of mid-weeks nearly killed me…

But what a weekend of football! We’re going into the international break on a high — maybe not as high as David de Gea is today, after taking an entire year off, and then coming back to save not one, but two penalties en route to a 2-1 win for Fiorentina over AC Milan.

But yeah, stonking weekend of action before the interlull. I’m still buzzed. —TK

Chelsea 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest

We don’t usually start with the Sunday slate, but people don’t criticise our running order like they do Match of the Day, so we do what we want.

This match… had some of the best GK performances we have seen this year on both sides. 8 shots on target vs. 9, in a 1-1 match means there were some octopus arms involved to keep things level. And these weren’t softies collected from range. They were bullet headers, and evil Cole Palmer double saves, with full credit to both Murillo and Robert Sanchez between the pipes.

Less credit goes to James Ward-Prowse, who had to dive and grab the ball in order to stop a Chelsea counter and picked up a red card in the process, stressing Nuno’s remaining hairline to the maximum. We love JWP as a delivery device, but he’s probably too slow to be counted on in the Premier League at this stage of his body.

The lesson going into the break for Blues fans is that the attack is firing on all cylinders, but the defense remains ropey and can’t be relied on to put teams away and keep them there. Fourth in the table is good though, especially if Emery keeps playing for grindy draws against the likes of the Mighty Manchester United.

Brighton 3 - 2 Spurs

Spurs opened the scoring with a Brennan Johnson goal, created off a lightning break from a tackle in midfield. There’s frailty in Brighton’s system right now, and this wasn’t really a surprise. I’m on record as thinking Brennan Johnson is Officially Good, which has to feel nice to Spurs fans. You lot can stop waffling about his performances and instead sit back and appreciate that you have one of the best young forwards in the Premier League.

Maddison squeaked a second goal in under the keeper on another mini-break (because I said nice things above about GKs, I can also say here that Verburggan should have saved it), and that was all she wrote, right?

Not so fast, my friends. Teams are legally obligated to play not just one, but two halves of football (ah, ah, ahhhh) in Premier League matches and shit got Spursy in half number two.

The meltdown started 3 minutes into the second half, with Udogie fluffing the clearance of a cross and Yankuba Minteh pounding home the mistake. Then both Udogie and van de Ven failed to shut down Rutter in the box and he evened the scoreline.

The third came off a throw-in and a spectacular sliding cross from Rutter to DAT GUY Danny Welbeck. “That’s just crazy!” We agree.

There was a savage cutup of Spurs CBs (mostly van de Ven) being a step slow the entire game, but DMCA appears to have killed it. Spurs are delightfully Jekyll and Hyde this year, giving fans the highest of highs and lowest of lows in the same games. Who could ask for anything more?

Manchester City 3 - 2 Fulham 

You know the worry I posted about City not being able to create great chances right now without Rodri around? I don’t know why it’s a problem yet, and I’m not sure Pep does either, but it’s almost certainly A Thing.

There was so much to talk about with this match. Like how insanely frustrating it is to be an Adama Traore fan (two breakaway 1v1s with the GK and both right at Ederson). Or how I was talking shit about Mateo Kovacic being a luxury player (I was a big, early fan) at this point in his career, and he immediately scored two in this match (STFU, Knutson).

Or how Kyle Walker is maybe, finally, a little bit past it when it comes to defending elite speed players. (Dude’s 34. He’s had a GREAT run. [Yes, pun intended]. But also, everyone gets trounced by Adama soooo maybe not? Eh, probably.)

Or most importantly, the assist from Raul Jimenez for Pereira’s goal. Are you kidding me?!? That’s Guti backheel assist territory, except Jimenez did it against Man City and not lowly Deportivo.

According to the scoreline, City put this to bed fairly early, but it was never really comfortable. Meanwhile, Fulham and Forest are the problem teams of the midtable so far this year, and you can expect them to put in real performances against anyone.

Brentford 5 - 3 Wolves

The Bees appear to have solved one of the 90 minutes of football — the first. I’m not sure how replicable it is across teams, to be honest, but they seem to do it with regularity scoring 4 times out of 7 matches. I won’t cover it here, but we will have a large segment on it for the Monday podcast this week, so check it if you want to hear more. Teams like PSG and Real Madrid have also been tinkering with kick-off plays recently, and it’s long been part of the Red Bull strategy across most of their coaching tree, but I can’t remember this many goals coming as a result.

The difference when Brentford have Norgaard and when they don’t is one of the most dramatic in the league. Wolves had 3 goals off 1xG in this match, and they were largely contained in attack. Meanwhile, defensively… I don’t want to give Brentford that much credit because Wolves were calamitous.

The Bees desperately need the period of the break to heal up. Wolves need it to figure out whether they are switching head coaches now, or waiting until November, but there seems to be only one destination on their road this season: relegation.

Aston Villa 0 - 0 Manchester United

Fuck, I bet on Unai Emery’s team… again. Only a half loss this time, as this game was evenly dreadful, and shame was shared for both sides. (For the record: My betting is down for the season, but was positive this weekend.)

.49 xg to .39… in “favour” of Villa. Utter dross, when United had been pussycats versus every other decent team they faced this season. Le mew, le sigh.

Speaking of only one destination — Ten Hag is definitely getting fired. The only question is when, and the “when” will be decided by when their top target is available. Graham Potter has been making media rounds, which suggests he wants to be in the frame for jobs at least by next summer. Others are available, but do they want the job, and do United want them? We’ll find out, eventually.

Everton 0 - 0 Newcastle United

Everton finally failed to let the opposition score a goal. Oh, Newcastle deserved to. Pickford saved a penalty, but the Magpies had lots of chances. For Everton, this is a case of bad process, good result — and similar against Crystal Palace — versus better process, bad results from earlier in the year.

Dyche doesn’t have all the pieces needed for this team to even be decent, but they have 5 points, Leicester, Ipswich, Southampton, and Wolves exist, and cavalry should be coming in January.

For Newcastle… welcome to regression to the mean. This was a good game from them, especially without Isak. But football happened.

West Ham 4 - Ipswich 1

I described my bet on Ipswich +.75 away to West Ham as probably “loose.” We’ll leave it at that and move on, but I’ve linked the highlights for you if you want to run it back.

Improbably, West Ham have 8 points, -1 goal difference, and are 12th in the table. Which is two spots above Man United. I am personally hoping they keep Lopetigui around so I can keep betting against him. “Look! Signs of life! It was just a slow start. They’ll be great this season, I promise.”

I saw this video of the Bowen goal and remembered that James Yorke did a detailed scouting report on Bowen back when he was at Hull, and the most impressive thing about him was how good a finisher he was with both feet. As a dad coach, there is nothing better in life than seeing your kid comfortably use both feet in shooting and long passing situations — it’s like you’ve given them a cheat code. Bowen has that one in spades.

Leicester 1 - Bournemouth 0

I am the Bournemouth jinx. When I bet on them, they fail to cover. And when I don’t, they come through with flying colours. Unlike Forest and Fulham, Bournemouth are just a touch too inconsistent and mistake-prone to make a real run into the top half of the table. Maybe Iraola will get this sorted, as the squad is fairly young, but it’s pretty frustrating to watch as a gambler and a fan of their transfer window.

Re: the match… Leicester were dominated again in expected goals, but part of that was score effects. I’m not sure we learned much outside the fact Buonanotte can hit the ball really hard and true with his left foot.

Crystal Palace 0 - Liverpool 1

Palace can’t stop teams from taking shots. Letting Liverpool take lots of shots (16 in this match) will eventually result in lots of goals. In this particular case, it was the first shot that resulted in a goal, but that’s just a sequencing observation.

The one note I have on Liverpool right now is that their set piece xG is a crater, which is something Edwards and Hughes need to push Slot on during the break. Letting Arsenal steal the Set Piece FC label for themselves is criminal. Either Brentford or Liverpool are the hereditary holders of this title, and ceding it entirely should not be an option.

Arsenal 3 - 1 Southampton

Just the uh… 29 shots for the Gunners. To go along with the 36 against Leicester last weekend. Kai Havertz is having a great run of form this season, but Bukayo Saka is a marvel. He is Arsenal’s most important and irreplaceable player. StarBoy is someone on par with the glory days of Van Persie, Fabregas, and even Pires, but at the same time he feels so different as a player.

Every week Saka manages to change games with a quiet dynamism. Because of his positional width, teams can’t overcommit to defending him high without ruining their shape and getting punished across the pitch. But he’s a physical mismatch in either pace or strength against every fullback he faces, and his ball control and delivery are exquisite. If he spoke Spanish, there would be constant stories in the media about an eventual move to Barcelona or Real Madrid. As it is, he’s a North London and English national treasure.

Southampton stressed the Arsenal defense in the first half and off set pieces, and as happy as Gunner fans seem to be with Calafiori, he can still get done by good wingers out wide. Archer’s goal was a nice finish, but Havertz’s shot to tie it up was ludicrously well-struck. No one saves that chance, ever.

The two goals to put it away were partly about Saka’s delivery, and then a nice team goal where Havertz basically got a second assist sitting on his ass at the halfway line, and Saka finished it, beating his man in a race to claim a dumb touch in the box from Southampton’s defense on the break.

The Saints make it too easy for anyone to play against them, but especially for the teams with real talent. They’ll never feel secure in the lead this season as things currently exist.

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