We're getting 2 very different Champions League semifinals

With apologies to Liverpool fans, who will make an extremely credible argument that they’ve been much better than Arsenal this season, this is about the best UEFA Champions League semifinal we could have hoped for.

We’ve got the 2nd best team from England, the clear best from France, and I think the best from Italy and Spain as well. Those latter three have been the 3 best teams in the world this year, and Arsenal are certainly good enough to cause any of them problems.

I think they’ve also been drawn into the most interesting possible combination of tactical matchups, though the first tie we’re going to talk about might not end up as the most thrilling to the neutral viewer. Let’s talk about them.

Arsenal vs. PSG

In attack, these two teams have been in different classes during the Champions League. Of course, Arsenal have played most of these games without one of either Bukayo Saka or Martin Ødegaard.

Interestingly, Set Piece FC has also not been outstanding at generating great set piece chances during the Champions League. I don’t think Arsenal have magically gotten bad at them, and I’m interested to see what they cook up with their best takers available once again.

While PSG have been brilliant, they definitely can get frustrated when it’s not going their way and start ripping hopeful shots from 20+ yards, as reflected in their pretty meh xG per shot. Arsenal can be very good at forcing teams to do this.

As seen here:

These teams have been equally good defensively, but they’re doing it in different ways. PSG are more of a pressing team that makes it difficult for opponents to play out of their own half, while Arsenal is happy to let opponents have the ball in areas they deem to present little danger.

Arsenal and PSG met in the league phase, and the Gunners will be hoping for a repeat performance. They took a 1-0 lead early, then successfully managed to turn the game into a boring, defensive slog, preventing PSG from generating any kind of threat.

Since that game, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has arrived in attack, while 20-year-old João Neves has settled into his role and now looks considerably more confident passing and carrying forward against high level opposition.

I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of shot volume or goals out of this tie, and it’s likely to be a very defensive chess match.

Barcelona vs. Inter Milan

On the other hand, the tie between Barcelona features the world’s best and most aggressive attack against a team that’s excellent at sitting in a 5-3-2 defensive shape and launching quick counter-attacks to their skilled and athletic striker partnership. This one could give us some fireworks.

The attacking style comparison is exactly what you’d expect. Barca is insane. Inter doesn’t rack up huge shot volume numbers.

Defensively, we see two extremely different teams. Inter are outstanding at defending their penalty area. They give up a ton of shots from outside the box, but very few high xG chances. Barca give up fewer total shots through a very aggressive press and high defensive line, but when they do get beat, it’s for super high value chances. For this reason, Inter present a bit of a matchup nightmare for Barca.

These teams haven’t played yet, but the closest comparison I could find was the game between Barca and Atalanta, who also play 3-5-2 with quick counters towards an athletic striker partnership. Atalanta are much more of a pressing team than Inter in most Serie A games, but they played similarly to how you’d expect Inter to when facing Barcelona. And I think the Champions League semifinal matches might look a lot like this.

Arsenal-PSG might have 1 goal over 180 minutes, but I bet Barca-Inter has a goal every 20 minutes or so.

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