Best I can do is £68m

We’ve received a lot of lovely praise in the last month as people continue to discover us, but perhaps none so eloquent as this.

"I am reading it on the bog.
It's perfect pooping material."

My focus for the rest of this week will be getting the pre-season gambling stuff out the door before I go to California on an extended family holiday. The focus will be on outrights and season points totals in the Premier League and Championship, plus a little bit of an explanation how betting with models works (at least for me).

Much like the transfer and football analysis we already produce, the end goal for all of the gambling content will be to make people smarter. And to have a bit of fun. That’s it. These will be video-based because there’s a lot of talking and showing that I don’t have time to condense purely into words and pictures right now.

There’s a new TTF pod up covering potential Mo Salah replacements, Desire Doue rumours, and a bit on the USMNT coaching search. You can find it on YouTube here, or the audio RSS feed here.

Guest Pods
Despite knowing absolutely nothing about Fantasy Football, I was invited on the Above Average FPL pod, where we discussed Calafiori to Arsenal, completely nerded out about set pieces, and got into the weeds a bit on regression to the mean vs whether great finishing is sustainable (looking at you, Phil Foden).

Despite not being Irish, I was also invited on the Irish Mags Show last week to discuss various Newcastle rumours. I’m bringing this one back because the Malick Thiaw rumours heated up a lot this week and we went in depth there on Thiaw and Antonio Silva, plus some Mbuemo and Elanga chat.

One more quick note before I leave you to mull over the delicious transfer rumors in peace:

PRESEASON DOESN’T MATTER!

I know that was a bit loud, but some of you really needed to hear it.

—TK

News and Rumours

• Speaking of preseason not mattering… anyone else watch Celtic-Man City, see those Matt O’Riley passes, and think “some top league club should sign this guy???” Jokes aside, Atalanta are interested after presumably watching his actual league games. They have an agreement with the player, but they’re not thrilled with the £30m price Celtic have quoted them.

• I’m surprised the Viktor Gyökeres rumours have been light this summer, but links to Arsenal and Chelsea are starting to pop up. His release clause is £68m, and you can see why Sporting are demanding it in full.

• Yeah, there’s some significant xG overperformance here, but this still rocks. Gyökeres is also physically imposing and had 7.45 xG assisted last year, so he’s not just a tap-in merchant. He’s 26, but a late bloomer who didn’t put a ton of minutes on his legs in his early 20s. And his price landing somewhere between the rumored fees for Artem Dovbyk and Victor Osimhen feels correct.

• Arsenal are also looking into Marc Guehi, and could “swap” Eddie Nketiah in the deal. That’s in scare quotes because true swap deals never happen, but a pair of inflated sales to do some PSR gaming is a thing that’s become increasingly common.

• Tottenham have been linked to 18-year-old South Korean wonderkid Yang Min-hyeok, who’s going to play against them in a friendly next week. Son comparisons are lazy, but he is indeed an athletic, dribbly right-footed winger. He’s also smaller and trickier than his countryman and potential future club teammate.

• There’s a pretty funny right back situation brewing with Man United and West Ham. Both teams are interested in Bayern Munich’s Noussair Mazraoui… kind of. West Ham are looking at him as a potential alternative if they can’t agree to a deal with United for Aaron Wan-Bissaka. United are only interested in Mazraoui if they sell Wan-Bissaka to West Ham. So it’s a giant three-way staring contest.

• PSG and Saudi clubs have been linked to Bruno Fernandes, which I assume actually means Bruno Fernandes wants Manchester United to give him a raise.

• After missing out on Jaden Philogene, Ipswich are looking to sign Sunderland’s Jack Clarke, who is kind of like Jaden Philogene From AliExpress.

• Enzo Maresca doesn’t seem to like Chelsea’s current goalkeepers, so they’re moving for Villarreal’s Filip Jörgensen, reportedly making a €20m bid. He’s fine. He is not obviously the next great GK, nor does he have any big red flags. The price is also not amazing but just fine. I guess this is an improvement for Chelsea?

• West Ham are negotiating for winger Crysencio Summerville, but they’re not close to an agreement yet. They’re bidding £20m, Leeds want £35m. He’s just 22 and went absolutely sicko mode in the Championship last year, so Leeds should stand their ground.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.”