It's too good to be true

Today’s Victor Osimhen rumour seems pretty out there (his agent even called it “fake news”), but several fairly reliable sources are reporting it. David Ornstein, Ben Jacobs, and Gianluca Di Marzio are all saying slightly different versions of the same thing: Chelsea and Napoli are discussing a swap where Romelu Lukaku moves to Naples and Osimhen heads to Stamford Bridge.

Osimhen has a €130m release clause, but no one’s paying that. Napoli are willing to negotiate deals that value him at €100m, but Chelsea probably can’t make that deal this window without getting themselves into PSR trouble come June, even if they amortize the fee over a period of time extending to the heat death of the universe.

So, the proposed deal: Lukaku valued at €30m, Osimhen valued at €100m, Chelsea pays somewhere in the neighborhood of €70m. The hang-up — and oh boy, is this a massive hang-up — is that Chelsea has proposed a loan with a buy option for Osimhen, while Lukaku moves the other way permanently, according to Ornstein. Napoli think this is a load of bullshit, according to Di Marzio, and want to make sure they get their money.

If you’re wondering why the hell Napoli are even willing to entertain these conversations for a big-time striker that was once the centerpiece of their team, it’s mostly because he’s asking to leave and not training with the first team. Also, their new manager is Antonio Conte, who apparently loves Lukaku like a son.

I’m sure player and club sides would give different accounts of who initiated Osimhen and Napoli’s problems, but that whole TikTok meme calamity probably didn’t help. Osimhen signed a one-year extension with a raise after that incident, but never seemed to hit his absolute best form.

Chelsea, and any other club that comes in for Osimhen, are mostly willing to pay a huge fee for his prior year production. Osimhen was the best striker in Serie A during the 2022-23 season, when he led the competition with 26 goals.

But his dropoff wasn’t that steep last year. His performances fell off a bit immediately before and after the TikTok incident, and he went away for Africa Cup of Nations, but he was still really good otherwise. Osimhen was 90th percentile or better in Serie A for xG, total shots, and touches in the box per 90 minutes in an “off” season. This is barely even buying the dip from Osimhen’s next club.

I, and most of the football media, have been extremely critical of Chelsea’s transfer policy under the Todd Boehly and Clearlake regime. But if they manage to get Osimhen on loan with a pure buy option, or an obligation that only triggers if difficult performance criteria are met, it’s a ridiculous coup.

If a deal seems too good to be true, it probably is. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Aurelio De Laurentiis step in, put his foot down, and say we are not letting this guy go cheap. But Napoli have backed themselves into a corner by abusing their best player on social media, leaving him out of their preseason, and hiring a manager who’s desperate to sign Lukaku.

We’ll just have to wait and see what happens, but I truly cannot believe this is happening.

—KM

News and rumours

• Fulham are going to sign Emile Smith Rowe for £27m + £7m in incentives, which is a lot of money for a guy who has 500 Premier League minutes in the last two seasons.

• The hot trend of the window is: If a fairly big name attacker who’s on a minor downward trend is available, link them to Aston Villa. The latest one is Raphinha, who Barcelona are truly desperate to sell. He’s certainly a fun player, but not a good one for the wages and fee he’s likely to command.

• Villa is also one of the teams linked with Hoffenheim striker Maximilian Beier, whose release clause is €30m. He ran a little hot last year, but this is still very nice from a 21-year-old on a Europa League-level team, in his first season as a first choice starter.

• Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has admitted that AC Milan defender Malick Thiaw is a “very good player,” rather than declining to comment about him when asked at a press conference. So if you’re a Tea Leaves Reader, have fun with that.

• It’s a rare treat when we get a bunch of interesting women’s football stories in the same day, so let’s do those. England international Jess Carter has moved from Chelsea to Gotham FC in the US, one transfer window after her partner Ann-Katrin Berger made the same move. She’s a versatile defender who’s pretty uniquely suited for the outside of a back 3, but played in the center of a back 4 plenty for Chelsea. I suspect Gotham will start her at right back.

• Chicago Red Stars have signed Brazilian international Ludmila from Atlético Madrid. She’s a quick striker who’s an elite dribbler, but doesn’t have a very good goal-scoring or assisting record. I’m not sure about this one, she’s kind of a perfect coach bait player — one whose positive qualities pop on tape, but who isn’t actually productive.

• Julia Zigotti-Olme has moved from Brighton to Bayern Munich after rejecting a contract extension. Zigotti-Olme was stripped of the captaincy at Brighton last season and claims she was never given a reason why, so it’s not too shocking she wasn’t interested in a renewal. Kind of a weird move — Brighton will have a tough time finding an equivalent replacement, but I also don’t think she’s good enough to start big games for Bayern.

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