Variance Betting - Premier League Analysis, 20th Sept Weekend

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Welcome back to betting, Mr. Knutson. Nice to see you again!

Last week’s results were not great. Losing weeks happen, but we are definitely a process-oriented operation. While the results were poor, the process (thankfully) looked a bit different. Given the expected goals numbers, we win the Bournemouth bet 84% of the time, and we win at least part of the Spurs bet 72% of the time, which made me feel a bit better about the thumping.

But there’s another way to assess wagering, especially in the early-ish market, and that comes back to Line Movement.

Ehhhhh, Ted... just looking at your closing line value for week 1 and I see: Bournemouth, Spurs, Brighton, Leeds, Millwall, Sunderland all materially good (with Lecister and Forest pretty flat) ... I assume there's some run good there and you're not just that far ahead of the game... :D :D

Anyway, safe to say I'm glad I signed up!

I’ll probably make this an entire section in an Intro to Gambling course when we launch it, but one way you can evaluate the sharpness of your bet versus the wisdom of the market is to look at your wager compared to the Closing Line Value at kickoff. If you got better prices than the CLV, you were probably on the same side as the sharp action in that game, especially if it moved significantly before post. If the market is moving against you regularly, then that means you might be “a square,” and potentially on the wrong side of the smart money.

If you have great CLV and bet regularly at discount books with low vig, you can actually lock in profit by cashing out of your bets before post, because the lines move so much that you can bet the other side at a profit. It’s not a recommended strategy because the expected value of your wager is better than the cash-out value of your bet, but regardless, it’s an available option.

Anyway, what one kind reader noticed was despite losing overall last week, our CLV was very strong across almost all of our bets in week 1. That’s a decent indicator that we might have a clue if it’s sustained over the long run.

Now there is no chance my bets actually move markets. First of all, I only bet $200 a shot right now. That is the tiniest drop in the bucket for a PL match day. Second of all, I have not earned any respect with regard to the market, or that we even know what we’re talking about.

What it might be is an indication that the guy who used to work in one of the world’s smartest sportsbooks, and who worked alongside one of the world’s best sports betting hedge funds (for those who got lost, said guy is me), at least has a similar process to the smart action.

Which is really fucking great until all your bets and their bets lose, and then you get sad on Sunday and do it all over again next week.

The best pros tend to win 54-55% of their bets. That’s a lot of losing, and ugly streaks are part of the deal. Shake it off and get back to work.

Public Expected Goals for the Premier League can be found at FBREF.
Some of our main principles were covered in the first VB newsletter.

Some notation uh… notes: For the most part, we will bet Asian Handicaps or Spreads. The reason for this is they tend to have the lowest vig, and they are usually around 50/50 bets. Some people have made small fortunes betting the three-way moneyline historically (also called 1×2), but that’s not where our focus is going to be, and you typically are charged more bets on those lines by the bookies.

Handicaps are listed focused on the home team. So below, West Ham is a half goal underdog currently to Chelsea. A bet on West Ham will cost you $116 to win 100. A wager on Chelsea would be $100 to win 105.

If you see “pk” it means pick’em from American parlance. It is the same as a 0 Handicap.

At reader requests, I have added both American Odds and Decimal Odds to the reviews.

All bets and analysis are below this line, and visible only