Variance Betting - It's finally here!

Welcome to Variance Betting. This is our subscription newsletter than focuses on betting in the English Premier League and English Championship.

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Normally, non-subscribers won’t receive these emails, but for the next two weeks after launch, you’ll get them in your Inbox to remind people they exist.

Thank you again for the support, and please enjoy!

—TK

Principles of Variance Betting

1) Discount bookies are better than bonuses
Why? Because we intend to be long-term winners, and so paying less every time you bet lowers the rate you need to win at in order to be profitable. Bookies that are highly bonus-focused will usually be the same ones that limit or kick out winners, and they won’t want our action.

Maybe you can’t play at a discount book right now, and that’s okay. But maybe that’s also an important thing to look into if you want to do this for real. Places like Pinnacle have existed for 25+ years and their customers adore them.

2) Price Shop
This mostly aligns with number 1. The better the odds you are getting on each bet, the less you have to win in order to hit profitability/the more profits you have at the end of the season. Therefore it’s useful to have the ability to bet at a few different places so you can get the best price each time.

To put this another way, when you are putting down tens of millions of dollars of wagers across a year, pennies really add up. We have a professional mindset - we care about pennies.

3) Work with Models and Knowledge
We’re going to talk about two models through most of our betting. The first is Market-Implied, which is what the bookies think these teams should be rated based on past lines. And the second model is expected goals. There are different versions of these models, but FBRef has a free one that you can access and investigate.

We use the models as baselines, then layer in specific extra knowledge we have about injuries, coaches, mismatches, whether one team has stopped paying their players, etc and use that to figure out if we want to bet or not.

4) Early Season is Tricky
Unless you are a pro or have been doing this a long time, the start of a new season should be a very cautious time to place bets. The reason for this is that the models are still learning how good these teams are and it takes 5-10 games in some cases for dramatic changes over the summer to become apparent.

On the other hand, if you have a lot of league knowledge, this is a very fruitful time of year to bet. The computers are all out of whack with reality and aren’t going to catch up for a few more weeks. If you’re good, maybe that’s free money.

I am starting out cautious, but you do you.

5) Your Bets are Your Own
I am posting my analysis and my wagers. We are also posting Market-Implied numbers every week for you to use. Beyond that, any wins and losses are your own choices. This is purely recreational - only bet what you can afford to lose, and try to have a good time.

The Actual Betting
For this season, bet sizing is going to be small. The reason for that is this is recreational gambling. I can lose $200 a bet all season long, and I’ll feel like an idiot, but it won’t impact my bottom line or my mental health.

I know a billionaire who cut his teeth on sports betting, but about a decade ago, he gave it up. Now this is a man who fucking loves sports and could lose max bets on any major league for the rest of his life and not meaningfully impact his net worth. In explaining why he had to give it up, he told me, “it occupies too many brain cycles. It’s far more valuable for me to be doing and thinking about my business and my life, but all I could do was think about sports.”

In my case, I am happy to follow these two leagues almost every day of every week, but if you need a mentally tidy brain space, you’re not alone.

The bet size doesn’t mean I’m not taking this seriously - I totally am. If I ever wanted to return to professional betting where each wager is the size of a new car, I’d want proof that I still have a decent edge, and this is a testing ground for that. Regardless, the point here is to discuss process and have fun. And maybe sweat a little while the games are on.

The rest is for Premium Subs only. Have a great weekend!
—TK