Variance Betting - English Champ Weekend 28Mar2025

Author

Ted Knutson
March 28, 2025

We’re back. In case you missed it, I did a mini-recap and status update for the season on Monday.

We’re now entering the slightly bumpy period toward the end of the season where some games mean A LOT more to certain teams than other ones, so positions will get a little more naturally cautious at times. We also have a full season of model data with these squads baked into the algorithms that generate the lines, so most of the advantage has played out. There are still a few decent bets to be found though.

FRIDAY FEATURE
Sheffield United vs Coventry -.25 1.83/2.09
Bets: No Bets

The knocks at Sheffield United remain extensive - it’s good that they have a crazy deep squad because that injury list never seems to get shorter. It’s kept them more approachable than they probably should be given the talent on tap, but whatever. They ground out a win in a basically even derby match before the break.

Coventry are not as good as their season metrics, and that defense in particular looks like it’s a bit more ropey under Lamps. It’s still fine, but not like… Leeds or Burnley level. You can’t fall in love with this lot, even if they are a decent shout to make the playoffs.

If the Blades were healthier, this is a home team bet. As it is, this line is fine for me.

SATURDAY
Hull vs Luton -.25 1.92/1.95
Bets: No Bets

Luton seem to have been doomspiralling for most of the season, but they have 2 wins and a draw in their last 4 matches. That includes a 2.75xG performance against Boro last time out, without a red card - it’s one of the most baffling performances of the entire season.

(Derby meanwhile have three wins in a row under Eustace. The bottom of that Champ table is VEEEEERY interesting right now.)

I don’t have a lean either way on this one, but the result is kind of a big deal.

Watford vs Plymouth Argyle -1 2.03/1.85
Bets: No Bets

NO THANK YOU.

Middlesbrough vs Oxford United -1 2.00/1.88
Bets: Oxford +1

So uh… last time out Boro were dominated by Luton. Yes, that Luton. No red card, no weird period, just utter domination by a relegation team. Watford are the chaos team, but Boro have had by far the weirdest season in this league.

So what does that force us to think about this match, where they face another near relegation team, but this time at home?

I don’t think Oxford are good. They had a nice little run where things were shored up defensively, they got a bunch of points, and then everything went back to how it was. Not good.

But Boro matches feel like volatility factors - I almost want to bet +.5 on Oxford to get the odds because this line respects Boro as a playoff team and they just don’t perform like that right now.

Cardiff vs Sheffield Wednesday +.25 1.79/2.10
Bets: Cardiff +.25

I expect one team from Sheffield to be away favourites in Wales, but I’m not sure it’s this one.

Leeds v Swansea -1.75 1.93/1.92
Bets: No Bets

Swansea have had a tidy little run to get out of relegation threat, but I expect them to roll over and play dead here, especially given Leeds are almost back to full health and very deep.

Sunderland v Millwall -.75 1.83/2.05
Bets: No Bets

Both of these teams are very wounded, and while Sunderland are much deeper, the line is also strongly shaded toward them.

Burnley v Bristol City -.75 2.01/1.86
Bets: No Bets

Correct line is correct.

Portsmouth v Blackburn Rovers -.25 2.00/1.87
Bets: No Bets

It is VERY clear Rovers are less defensively sound under Ismael than they were under Eustace. So on initial look, this feels like Rovers might have value based on the season, based on the current coach, I would steer clear. If Pompey were healthier, I might even lean their way at home, but they are not.

Norwich vs West Brom -.25 1.95/1.92
Bets: Norwich -.25

Norwich are probably the most volatile team in the league this season that I am still interested in betting on regularly.

I like West Brom more than I used to because they have an attack again. But I have this like at Norwich -.5 or so. Let’s go, Canaries!

Stoke vs QPR -.25 1.99/1.88
Bets: No Bets

Speaking of bubble relegation teams… Stoke are dangerously close and have some of the worst metrics of the lot. They are, however, improving. Sloooowly. If we give credit for Stoke’s small improvement, this line is basically perfect.

An annoying week all around, but it’s also kind of what you expect from late-season lines after an international break.

Good luck,

—TK

Market-Implied Model Stuff

Our link to Bet105, one of the best discount bookies out there.

Some notation uh… notes: For the most part, we will bet Asian Handicaps or Spreads. The reason for this is they tend to have the lowest vig, and they are usually around 50/50 bets. Some people have made small fortunes betting the three-way moneyline historically (also called 1×2), but that’s not where our focus is going to be, and you typically are charged more bets on those lines by the bookies.

Handicaps are listed focused on the home team. So assume West Ham is a half goal underdog to Chelsea (+.5 -116/+105). A bet on West Ham will cost you $116 to win 100. A wager on Chelsea would be $100 to win 105.

If you see “pk” it means pick’em from American parlance. It is the same as a 0 Handicap or Draw No Bet.