Variance Betting -

So… welcome back to Variance Betting. You are not receiving this by mistake. I sent it out to everyone this week, partly because Kim is on vacation and I had a crazy week, and partly as an apology for all the weirdness that happened with the auto-renewals on monthlies and yearlies… to make a long story short, the tier system in BeeHiiv is a fraction more confusing than I expected. We’re still working through the kinks and refunding all old monthlies, though they may take a couple of days to complete.

And I’m giving away this week’s edition for free to everyone, to make sure that those who wanted to renew and didn’t get a chance to adjust their subs still have time.

tl;dr Free Premier League and Championship analysis for all. For one week, anyway. Huzzah. -TK

Note: If you want to continue receiving my gambling analysis every week, the link to upgrade to a paid subscription is here.

Public Expected Goals for the Premier League can be found at FBREF.
Some of our main principles were covered in the first VB newsletter.
More information on Asian Handicaps/Spreads can be found here.

Some notation uh… notes: For the most part, we will bet Asian Handicaps or Spreads. The reason for this is they tend to have the lowest vig, and they are usually around 50/50 bets. Some people have made small fortunes betting the three-way moneyline historically (also called 1×2), but that’s not where our focus is going to be, and you typically are charged more bets on those lines by the bookies.

Handicaps are listed focused on the home team. So below, West Ham is a half goal underdog currently to Chelsea. A bet on West Ham will cost you $116 to win 100. A wager on Chelsea would be $100 to win 105.

If you see “pk” it means pick’em from American parlance. It is the same as a 0 Handicap.

At reader requests, I have added both American Odds and Decimal Odds to the reviews.

Market-Implied Numbers

English Premier League

Tottenham v West Ham -1.25 2.07/1.85 OR -1.25 +107/-118
Ted’s Bets: Spurs -1.25

Barring West Ham’s timely beatdown of Ipswich just before the international break, they have been quite bad so far this season. Was the trashing of a promoted team enough to get them on track? And what to make of the Spursiest Spurs that e’er did live in that Brighton match?

The xG numbers suggest there’s value in Spurs this week at 1.25. My gut agrees with this as well, but there’s a chance that feeling is spur-ious. We’ll keep an eye on the injury list coming back from break to see if anyone important is missing for the home side, but it looks like they are healthier than they have been in a while.

Southampton v Leicester -.25 2.09/1.83 OR +109-120
Ted’s Bets: No Bets

Welcome to the English Championship betting segment, a bit early. If you’ve been following basically any of our content, you’ll know I think Southampton need to move on from Russell Martin. They did not do that during the break, which means he could be here until at least November now.

LCFC have basically the same expected goal difference as the Saints, and the match is down South, which means we get to sit back and throw popcorn at whichever side plays worse in this one.

Fulham v Aston Villa -.25 2.12/1.81 OR -.25 +112/-124
Ted’s Bets: No Bets

This is such a frustrating line and yet another example of how betting has gotten harder these days. A decade ago, Fulham are probably somewhere between .25 and .5 goal underdogs at home here. This line is unfortunately very fair, and I might even lean a bit toward Villa being super capable of gumming this up for a low-scoring draw.

I have the tiniest temptation of Under at 2.75, but not enough to place a bet - Villa’s high-scoring affairs early in the season put me off.

Ipswich v Everton -.25 2.09/1.83 OR -.25 +109/-120
Ted’s Bets: Everton +.25

Oo, another cellar 6-pointer. Ipswich have been have been bad, but weird. Everton have been mostly bad, but normal. Ipswich have had a fairly tough schedule across the seven matches, but Everton’s haven’t been cupcakes either.

I feel like this is a free quarter goal against a promoted team with Sean Dyche on the other side of it - kind of have to take it.

Manchester United v Brentford -.75 1.87/2.04 OR -.75 -115/+104
Ted’s Bets: Brentford +.75

One of our keys to Brentford as a potential bet is: Is Christian Norgaard healthy? They have had injury struggles as a whole thus far, but when healthy, Brentford are better than their expected goal difference. They beat up on the relegation contenders at home, but lost to Liverpool, City, and Spurs, all away.

Manchester United, on the other hand… are a conundrum. In their favour, they have had a fairly tough schedule to start the year. Not Wolves tough, but Liverpool, Villa, Brighton, Spurs, and Fulham are all handfuls. But, they also only have two wins.

Brentford feels correct to me.

Newcastle v Brighton -.5 2.01/1.90 Or -.5 +101/-111
Ted’s Bets: Brighton +.5

Newcastle’s metrics suggest they are closer to 14th than 7th. Brighton have been bumpy the last few weeks, but are still one of the seven best sides in the league in my opinion. Isak and Callum Wilson are out.

Barring major injury issues, I am very happily betting Brighton at +.5.

Bournemouth v Arsenal +.75 2.02/1.89 OR -.75 +102/112
Ted’s Bets:

Arsenal stomped Bournemouth last season 3-0 and 0-4 home and away, and they are arguably a touch better this year. The problem is, so are Bournemouth, by quite a bit. At 1.25 I would definitely bet on B’Mouth. At 1, I’d have a solid lean and probably a small wager. .75 isn’t quite big enough to pull the trigger, but Arsenal have A LOT of potential missing starters coming out of the break.

You’ll need to see the lineup to figure this one out.

SUNDAY

Wolves v Man City +1.75 1.85/2.05 OR -115/+105
Ted’s Bets

Poor Wolves. This schedule is torture and it doesn’t lighten up for two more weeks. Given the insanity of the Brentford match, I found myself wondering how big the line would have to be to actually have a bet on Wolves. Maybe +2.5? Or Haaland out and +2? Either way, no thank you to either side of this one.

Liverpool v Chelsea -.75 1.87/2.04 OR -.75 -114/+114
Ted’s Bets - Under 3.25

Sunday matches have been so good to start the season. That’s aided by the fact that there are just a lot of interesting, big teams this year to schedule. Liverpool come into this match in first and looking truly defensively sound for the first time in years. However… one of the reasons for that is a schedule where they have only played bottom half teams thus far. (That includes Manchester United, and should probably give more credit to Forest, but whatever.)

So they are excellent defensively, and facing one of the more talented attacking teams in the league. Whee! Which one of these will bend?

If Liverpool had faced a tougher schedule or this line were slightly smaller, that’s a happy Liverpool bet at Anfield. As it is, and especially coming out of an international break, I was going to leave this handicap alone, but the Market-Implied numbers are aggressive. I think I may have to bet Liverpool.

However, I DO like the Under on 3.25. Sometimes these big matches go weird, and Chelsea are certainly capable of giving up easy goals, but Liverpool seem to be able to stifle everybody, so anything over 3 seems too high.

MONDAY

Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace -.25 2.07/1.85 OR -.25 +107/-118
Ted’s Bets: Forest -.25

This could turn into mud, but given what the models say, I’m basically forced to bet Forest at anything under -.5. They are way better than Palace so far this season, and even if I believe in Glasner long term, the weighting of recent matches needs to be respected.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

Warning - Friday Match!

Leeds v Sheffield United -.75
Ted’s Bets: Under 2.5

Sheffield United top the table, but Leeds are the best team in the league. This line is (un)fortunately spot on. If you were degen who wanted action on a Friday night, you’d take Under 2.5, even if I’m still smarting a bit from the madness of the Sunderland v Leeds 2-2.

Update: Busy week for me, so I wrote most of this on Tuesday. The Under has moved to 2.25, and the Leeds line is now -.5, which Market-Implied thinks is a bet. I think the Blades’ are a little better than their metrics and will leave this alone, but you do you!

Luton v Watford -.5
Ted’s Bets: No Bets

Luton have figured out exactly nothing this season after coming down from the Premier League. Watford, meanwhile, are the division’s chaos team. Their expected goals numbers are among the worst, but they sit in 6th place right now having Boro last time out.

After digging into their form, the main clue I found was that Watford’s good performances almost exclusively come at home. BUT… Luton’s good performances don’t really happen anywhere.

I am waving a big no thank you to both sides.

Preston v Coventry Pick’Em (0)
Ted’s Bets: Coventry, 0

Preston are currently sitting one point above Coventry this season, which feels both weird and unfair, but that’s the Championship for you. PNE have had two solid results the last two outings, a grindy 0-0 at Burnley where both teams nullified the other, and a romping, deserved 3-0 win at home against Watford. I am… intrigued.

Covs got pummeled 3-0 at Leeds, put up a 3-0 win midweek at home to Blackburn, and then barfed a 1-2 loss at home to Sheffield Wednesday. Yuck. And yet…

The model thinks Coventry should be favourites. I am not excited about it, but unless there are very good reasons not to, we do what the numbers say.

Oxford v West Brom +.5
Ted’s Bets: No Bets

If you were following a couple of weeks ago, you’ll know that WBA are doing this weird thing where they stop taking any shots for like 20-25 minutes in games where they are in the lead. Which is bad strategy and potentially sandbags their numbers for how good they really are.

Irritating as hell, and makes me lean WBA by a touch, but not enough to place a bet.

Cardiff v Plymouth -.5
Ted’s Bets: No Bets

Cardiff replaced their head coach just a bit before the break and seem to have had a pleasant new coach bounce, with 4 points from their last two matches. They only have 5 on the season. They aren’t good, but they might be a snaffle better than their league table position of rock bottom.

Plymouth have the worst metrics in the league, but are capable of taking scalps at home this season. Compared to their table positions, it’s clear the gambling markets DO NOT have any faith in Plymouth right now.

Millwall v Derby -.5
Ted’s Bets: Millwall -.5

Millwall’s expected goal difference is on the cusp of automatic promotion territory. Seriously. Derby are fine, but given it’s at Millwall, we’re definitely forced into betting on them. (Again. Sigh.)

Middlesboro v Bristol City -.75
Ted’s Bets: No Bets

Boro are very good, while Bristol City are a touch better than average, but so many draws. They also haven’t faced any of the rock stars in the table just yet.

My instinct says Boro take care of business at home, but the model numbers feel the line is fair, so nothing from me.

Blackburn v Swansea -.5
Ted’s Bets: No Bets

I have been cleaning up on Under bets when Swansea is involved. However, Blackburn games have the joint-most goals in the league so far. Possibly unfairly? In order to suss that one out, I would need to watch more film than I have time for this week.

Neither of these teams is very good, but this line is spot on.

Stoke v Norwich 0 (PK)
Ted’s Bets: Norwich 0

Norwich were on an absolute tear going into the break and were probably sad to let everyone else take a breather. Re: their opponents this week, minus a thumping of Portsmouth in Stoke, Stoke City have been fairly dire this season.

Unless a lot of players are injured, not having Norwich as favs feels delightfully mad, in our favour.

Sheff Weds v Burnley 0 (PK)
Ted’s Bets: No Bets

The only thing I enjoy betting on Burnley matches is Under. They don’t attack like a team of their budget should in this league, and it’s both dumb and confusing. The gambling markets clearly agree, because Sunderland, WBA, and Leeds would all be solid favs at Wednesday, but Burnley get a juicy bagel as the handicap.

The total is 2.25 as well, so we’re below the happy 2.5 goal threshold, and there’s no joy in mudville.

QPR v Portsmouth
Ted’s Bets: No Bets

Pompey had basically the hardest schedule on the planet to start the year. They finally got a breath of fresh air in a trek to stoke, and lost that 6-1, so the theory that it was purely the schedule keeping them down suddenly looks a touch less rosy than it did three weeks ago.

I want to say QPR are better than their table position, but that insane Plymouth Argyle match early in the year is still partly juicing their metrics, so they might be exactly as bad as their league table position.

The gambling markets have declared Portsmouth dead, and until someone miraculously discovers a heartbeat, we’re going to acknowledge that opinion.

tl;dr ew, smelly. do not want.

SUNDAY

Hull v Sunderland
Ted’s Bets: No Bets

Hull were on a roll going into the break, but ran into a buzzsaw in Norwich. Sunderland were juuuust about to lose 1-2 to Leeds in the Friday showcase until Meslier messed that one completely up, and they ran away holding a draw near and dear to their little hearts.

The Tigers’ pattern so far has been to smoosh most of the bad teams and roll over and play dead against the really good ones. Sunderland’s table position is a reflection of defensive dominance at the Stadium of Light, but they have leaked goals regularly so far in their travels. That makes me wary, so I’m going to leave this be.

—TK