United management thinks Mainoo is better than Xavi

Before we get going today, I wanted to shout out the excellent job Patrick and Ravi are doing with the podcast.

• We had a special episode with Ali from NTT20 talking about the Championship this week.

• The most recent episode is on Man United’s new signings, Liverpool’s superstars running down their contracts, and Kingsley Coman.

• If you prefer classic audio-only podcasts, just search for “The Transfer Flow Podcast” on Apple or Spotify, or pop the RSS feed into your platform of choice.

• Thanks!

Talking about how Kobbie Mainoo is not yet one of the best players in the world seems to piss people off. Folks did not like when Ted pointed out that he is excellent for a teenager, but not actually good yet.

For all the hype, the Euros were pretty much the same story as his debut season at Manchester United.

He shows flashes of brilliance, but regularly disappears from games, which is fine because he is a teenager with about 2500 pro minutes under his belt. He’s not supposed to be a Champions League-level starter. You can count on one hand the number of 8s who have reached that level before their 20th birthday over the last couple of decades.

So why are we talking about this again? It’s not because I have any desire to put down one of the most talented young midfielders on the planet. It’s because Manchester United will be starting their season on Friday with Mainoo as their centerpiece, with virtually no cover for him.

I do not think there should be any pressure on Mainoo to be anything more than a young player learning his trade this season. He could make no positive contribution to Manchester United and I would still be extremely optimistic about his long-term upside. But here’s the thing: Manchester United’s management are the ones putting pressure on Mainoo to be an immediate star.

Not vocally, of course. Erik Ten Hag says all the right things in the media. But with their squad construction, United have made it clear that they believe in Mainoo’s ability to be a great player immediately. They haven’t signed a midfielder this transfer window, despite their midfield looking genuinely appalling for most of last season. Everyone they’ve been linked to is a pure defensive midfielder to partner with Mainoo, not a box-to-box runner or deep-lying playmaker to rotate with him.

A couple of former United players have been a bit less conservative than Ten Hag in their evaluations of Mainoo while working as TV pundits. Paul Scholes famously exclaimed “he’s better than me,” which United needs to be true. Scholes didn’t play for United’s senior side until he was 19, and was 23 by the time he made his England debut. Rio Ferdinand compared him to Clarence Seedorf, who’s a bit closer. Seedorf starred for Ajax in the Champions League at 18, earning a move to Serie A.

The better comparison than Scholes and Seedorf — both in style of play and what United is hoping to get out of Mainoo this season — is Cesc Fabregas, who was Arsenal’s player of the season at age 19. But Fabregas also had 2 years of being an excellent rotation player ahead of that, banking double Mainoo’s current pro minutes before the start of that campaign. Similar things could be said about his countryman Jude Bellingham, who had played in 134 pro matches ahead of his breakout 2022-23 Bundesliga campaign for Borussia Dortmund.

Pick out any star central midfielder you’d like to compare Mainoo to, and they probably started looking like one of their club’s best players a year or two older than Mainoo is right now. Steven Gerrard — debut at 18, made the leap at 20. Xavi — debut at 18, made the leap at 21. Luka Modric — debut at 19, arguably didn’t properly make the leap until 22.

And yet, Manchester United have put themselves in a situation where their success is predicated on Mainoo making that leap right now, at age 19, with 2500 minutes of pro experience. I think he’s talented enough that this is possible, but we have a lot of history to suggest he likely needs one more year, even if he’s on a Ballon d’Or-type trajectory.

I hope we’re about to watch the otherworldly superstar leap of a generational player. But if all we get is “normal” superstar development — Mainoo following the same trajectory as Gerrard, Modric, and Xavi — United won’t be competitive for top 4 this season. That’s unfair to Mainoo, but I’m not the one who built the squad.

—KM

News and rumours

• Related to the above, Christen Eriksen has reportedly been told he’s free to go find a new club. I agree in principle with selling a 32-year-old who is in the final year of his contract and who’s declined physically, but uhhhhh, you guys need bodies. Perhaps this means a Sander Berge deal is imminent?

• Also, just making up a totally fake rumour: Should Man United look into Leon Goretzka? Bayern have told him he’s not in their plans. He should be available for virtually no fee as long as someone takes his wages. He’s 29 and likely declining, but still a totally decent all-around 8. If you can get him on loan, it’s a good one-year stopgap to let Mainoo slowly but surely turn into That Guy.

• Tottenham Hotspur dropped a surprise transfer this morning without any prior reporting indicating it was about to happen. They’ve signed 19-year-old winger Wilson Odobert from Burnley for £25m + £5m in potential add-ons. Odobert is a super athletic dribbly boy who scored for Burnley in their Championship opener, but he needs to round out his game to turn into a good player for Tottenham.

• Spurs have also been linked to Juventus DM Manuel Locatelli, who would cost them in the neighborhood of £20m. In the same vein as Mainoo at United, Spurs are in need of a bridge between what Archie Gray is now and what they think he will be in 2 years. Locatelli fits the bill as a reliable, no nonsense DM. Basically no upside, though.

• Ipswich have signed Sammie Szmodics from Blackburn for £9m, and he has one of my favorite AM radars ever. Who needs to dribble, pass, or play defense? Just fucking score.

• Chelsea bought Noni Madueke for about £30m, he had a debut season that I’d classify as OK, and then they bought his replacement. Liam Twomey reports they want £60m to sell him. If you think he’s that good, why did you just pay £60m for a guy to replace him? Anyway, I think he ends up leaving this summer for much less than that.

• Newcastle apparently has full tunnel vision, because they’ve returned with a £65m bid for Marc Guehi. We’re now in full “don’t do that” territory in my opinion, but he’s a good player and money is only real to them for PSR purposes, so it’s unlikely to hurt too bad.

• I really like Liverpool women’s signing of Swedish striker Cornelia Kapocs from Lindköping. Her goal-scoring has dropped off a bit after her team had a rough offseason, but she was lethal in a 3rd place team last year with 18 goals in 2100 minutes.

• It’s not just the Prem, but almost all European football that returns this week. If you’re not familiar, I recommend familiarizing yourself with the website LiveSoccerTV.

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