Why Liverpool should bounce back against Milan

Hello friends, and welcome back to the UEFA Champions League. It’s a bit different than you remember it, which has been discussed ad nauseum elsewhere. If this is somehow the first you’re hearing of this, the new format is explained here.

We’re going to take a look at every game this week, but first, a little bit of business.

Apologies if you’re one of the Variance Betting subscribers who did not receive the email for yesterday’s post, Ted’s review of the Premier League week. I figured out the issue causing that problem, and you should be getting all free and paid newsletters to your same email again. If you’re not a Variance Betting subscriber and you’re interested on hearing about the bets Ted is making and why, you can sign up here.

OK, onto the good stuff. I’ve picked out a game from every window that I’ll be watching, and then there will be short bits on the other games at the end. A good place to find match times and TV/streaming info for your territory is LiveSoccerTV. —KM

Young Boys vs. Aston Villa — early Tuesday

Young Boys’ qualifying round win over a much more experienced and better funded Galatasaray was a bit shocking. Even more shocking is their performance in the Swiss Super League thus far this season: Young Boys are bottom of the table with no wins from 6 games. However, they’re undefeated over their last 7 matches in all competitions, with the Swiss Pokal giving them an opportunity to bounce back against some lower league opposition.

The stats suggest Young Boys are trying to play a high pressing system, but haven’t sorted out how to do it yet. Their PPDA is a low 7.36, but they’ve conceded a ton of high quality shots from through balls, and a pretty shocking 16 shots per game total.

But Villa isn’t likely to see that system. We’ll see if Young Boys are a bit better in the 4-4-2, lower block, counter-attacking setup they used against Galatasaray.

As for Aston Villa, I do not know what to make of them yet. They’re looking decent by xG, but have allowed some crap goals and relied on some absolute bangers to get results. The really good news: Youri Tielemans has been one of the best midfielders in the league, and if he continues to play the same way, the Villains are going to start getting some normal-looking wins.

AC Milan vs. Liverpool — late Tuesday

Even though Liverpool got a bad result against Nottingham Forest over the weekend, there’s plenty to like about the way they’ve been playing. On the podcast, The Boys mentioned that Arne Slot focused on stabilizing Liverpool’s defense first, and now the attack will need to follow.

It’s true that Liverpool’s defense is looking much better to start this season. They won’t be happy with their defending on the counter that led to Forest’s winner, but generally, they’re better at preventing their opponents from getting good shots in every single phase.

Their opponents in this game, AC Milan, posted a much-needed 4-0 victory over Venezia this weekend. But they weren’t significantly improved over previous poor performances: The goals came from a goalkeeper blunder, a poorly defended set piece, and two penalties. Their non-penalty xG difference is only +0.73 through 4 Serie A games.

Milan played extremely wide in that game, with their fullbacks getting on the ball more than any other players. They’re heavily focused on getting the ball to Rafael Leão and Christian Pulisic on the wings, and letting them create chaos by cutting inside towards the edge of the penalty area.

I think we’ll see Liverpool try to funnel Milan towards their right side a lot, and to great success. Emerson Royal and Davide Calabria, whoever plays, are average on the ball. Luis Díaz has been working very hard in the press this year, and Alexis MacAllister has been extremely effective at winning the ball and starting attacks on Liverpool’s left side of the pitch.

Sparta Prague vs. RB Salzburg — early Wednesday

I cannot pretend to have great insight on the strength of the Czech league relative to other smaller leagues in Europe, but Sparta Prague are currently dominating domestically. They have 19 points from 7 games, and their only draw was a game where they had 2 more xG than their opponents.

For the transfer-interested crowd (presumably all of you), 21-year-old Czech international defender Martin Vitík is probably coming soon to a big league club near you.

Speaking of young players who are probably going to make transfers to bigger leagues soon: The entire RB Salzburg squad. Basically everyone you will see on the pitch is between 18 and 23, and could very easily be sold for an 8-figure fee tomorrow.

But to pick one out, attacking midfielder Oscar Gloukh is in ridiculous form to start the year. His passing from deep, passing around the box, and shooting have all been great.

PSG vs. Girona — late Wednesday

The departures of Artem Dovbyk to AS Roma and Savio to Manchester City have hurt the Girona attack considerably. They’re still looking like a solid defensive unit that could frustrate Paris Saint-Germain, but I don’t expect them to generate many high-quality shots. Somehow, their best attacker at present is 37-year-old Cristhian Stuani.

PSG are trying to re-invent themselves following the departure of their three global superstar forwards, and an injury to starting center forward Gonçalo Ramos isn’t making that easy. Over the weekend, they opted for the falsest of false 9s, with Marco Asensio taking up the “center forward” position.

I like this solution — Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembélé are really threatening as wingers that stay high and run in behind. Ruiz-Neves-Lee looks like a well-balanced midfield that’s capable of getting them the ball while also keeping a good shape defensively. Luis Enrique might be cooking.

Feyenoord vs. Bayer Leverkusen — early Thursday

I was pleasantly surprised at the degree to which Leverkusen was able to keep the band together and avoid getting absolutely raided by Premier League vikings this summer. They’re looking great too, putting together a dominant performance in a 4-1 win over Hoffenheim this weekend.

Victor Boniface and Florian Wirtz have picked up where they left off last season, but the addition of Martin Terrier to the front line appears to have leveled them up significantly. Now let’s hope he can stay healthy, something he hasn’t been able to do the last couple of seasons.

Xabi Alonso will have to set up his press to limit the effectiveness of Feyenoord left center back Dávid Hancko, who has started just about every good attack his team has had this season. He’s completed more passes into the final third than any of their central midfielders.

Atalanta vs. Arsenal — late Thursday

Haven’t seen Atalanta in a while? Well, they’re still the same classic Gian Piero Gasperini team you know and love. Ademola Lookman fits the team like a glove in his weird half-winger, half-CAM role in their 3-4-2-1. Charles De Ketelaere is doing a good job of replacing Teun Koopmeiners in the more standard attacking mid role. These guys are fun.

I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of the North London Derby from Arsenal, simply because Atalanta are so different to Spurs. Their shape and speed in attack will likely cause Thomas Partey and/or Jorginho to actually move from their positions, so Arteta will likely need to cook up a different kind of plan. Namely, one that has Declan Rice doing a lot of running.

While I think Atalanta presents some big matchup problems from open play, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Gunners win this with set pieces. Atalanta have conceded a shocking 4 goals from 3.39 set piece xG and 16 set piece shots so far this season.

Here’s the rest of the games.

Tuesday

Juventus vs. PSV — Early days for Thiago Motta, but Juve’s attack looks TERRIBLE.

Bayern Munich vs. Dinamo Zagreb — Bayern rocks, they should win. But eyes on Martin Baturina and Petar Sučić, who could be the next great Dinamo midfield products.

Real Madrid vs. Stuttgart — The “can Vini and Mbappe play together” narrative is either calming down or heating up after this one, because Stuttgart’s defense looks bad. They better score.

Sporting Lisbon vs. Lille — We’re going to be on Viktor Gyökeres Watch these next 8 games, because he’s going to remain the subject of interest from rich clubs. They want to see if he can score against opposition better than he sees in the Portuguese league.

And a question I have about him: Isn’t that a lot of blocked shots? Does this guy have a problem getting his shot off quickly?

Wednesday

Bologna vs. Shakhtar Donetsk — Post-sales and manager loss Bologna look awful, it’ll be stunning if they aren’t one of the teams completely eliminated from this first phase.

Celtic vs. Slovan Bratislava — There was a really funny Slovak league game where Slovan Bratislava only had 1 xG less than their opponents, but lost 5-0. In any event, Celtic should be slight favorites here. Curious to see what kind of player Matt O’Riley replacement Arne Engels develops into. He seems like a hard worker and good dribbler, but not an O’Riley-like assist monster.

Manchester City vs. Inter Milan — It’s the classic Inter 3-5-2 you know and love, trying to stop Erling Haaland from doing Erling Haaland things. Fun matchup.

Club Brugge vs. Borussia Dortmund — Former Norwich man Christos Tzolis is already going nuts for his new club, and could cause Dortmund some serious problems. Dortmund had a good result over the weekend, but with some outstanding finishing and very few good shots.

Thursday

Red Star Belgrade vs. Benfica — Following some huge departures, Benfica’s attack has been extremely disappointing so far this season. Meanwhile, Crvena zvezda are in great form. Could be an upset possibility.

Brest vs. Sturm Graz — Brest made minimal changes this offseason after qualifying for the Champions League for the first time, and despite that, are off to a truly horrific start in Ligue 1. Another upset possibility.

Monaco vs. Barcelona — We’ve discussed Barcelona quite a bit here already this season. Hansi Flick rules and they’re a joy to watch. I think they’ll win this game, but I want to give some props to Monaco for their transfer window. They made some dramatic changes this offseason, added a lot of highly rated teenagers, and they’re playing well. Lamine Camara looks like he might even be an upgrade on Youssouf Fofana.

Atlético Madrid vs. RB Leipzig — Probably deserved the feature slot, I’m a bit annoyed this is on at the same time as Atalanta-Arsenal. Leipzig should theoretically be a dynamic attacking team, but their god mode front 3 hasn’t gotten firing yet this year. Atléti is still trying to figure out if Alexander Sørloth or Julián Alvarez is the better partner for Antoine Griezmann, but it’s very much a champagne problems situation. Atléti looks awesome.

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