This €80m winger transfer is a curious one

The January transfer window often includes lots of noise about big transfers that don’t actually get done, with player or club deciding to wait until the summer to get the deal done. But there’s plenty of smoke around Khvicha Kvaratskhelia making an immediate €80m move from Napoli to Paris Saint-Germain.

Fabrizio Romano says all parties are involved in negotiations and they’re progressing well. Santi Aouna and Gianluca Di Marzio are saying similar. Nico Schira believes his base salary will end up being around €9m, which is probably more than Napoli would like to pay anyone.

Kvara’s gotten a lot of well-deserved hype in recent years, but Antonio Conte’s system has not been too kind to his numbers this year. He looks like vaguely the same profile of player, just a little bit worse.

He’s actually adjusted pretty well, and has been a very productive passer. But he’s simply not getting the same volume or quality of shots that he did in the previous two seasons.

The money spot for Kvara’s shooting is in line with the left edge of the 6-yard box, between 6 and 12 yards away from goal. In previous seasons, he’s been able to get to this spot with pretty incredible regularity, scoring a ton of goals and regularly generating 0.2 xG+ shots.

This season, he’s not really getting there at all.

It’s not like Kvara’s been unproductive though, despite the dropoff. He’s 7th among Serie A wingers with more than 600 minutes played for xG + xA this season. Notably, he’s also played way more minutes than any of the guys above him, and his durability is a big plus for any potential buying team. Kvara played 34 games in each of the last two seasons as well. The best ability is availability.

I’m inclined to believe that Kvara is, in most situations, closer to the player he was last season than the one he has been this season. He’s going to play a lot better in a team like PSG that primarily plays 4-3-3 and likes to dominate possession high up the pitch. A lot of things about this transfer pass the smell test — Napoli should probably sell before his value drops from spending more time with a coach that he doesn’t really fit with, and PSG plays in a way that suits Kvara’s talents.

But I’m also wondering how PSG have decided that Kvara is worth €80m to them, specifically. Because they currently have a right-footed left winger who’s doing this:

It’s possible that there’s another part of this story we haven’t heard yet, like PSG negotiating a 9-figure sale for Bradley Barcola, or their management believing his future is at center forward. But personally, if I had a left winger putting up numbers like this, I wouldn’t want to screw with him. I think that PSG should be plotting how to build around and get the most out of Barcola in his current role, and buying Kvara doesn’t fit with that at all.

PSG also just bought Désiré Doué, who is performing just fine for a 19-year-old bench player, and has Xavi Simons out on loan at RB Leipzig. Usually I would not bat an eyelash at PSG paying €80m for an early prime age player with no significant red flags. But perhaps their resources could be used on absolutely any other position?

I’m interested to see if other corresponding moves happen that lead to Kvara to PSG making sense, but right now, I’m wondering what the hell they’re going to do with an entire squad full of right-footed left wingers. —KM

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