The Champions League game we're watching in each timeslot

Did you enjoy the international break? I rode my bike a lot, played some video games, went to the DMV to get a new ID. And now I’m thrilled to get back to the variety of football I love, the Champions League.

There are 4 timeslots for games this week, so we picked out one to watch from each. The easiest place to find times and TV/streaming listings for your country is LiveSoccerTV.

Tuesday early — AC Milan vs. Club Brugge

Despite reports from apparently all of the Italian, Portuguese and German press that Paulo Fonseca is constantly on the verge of getting sacked, I like what he’s got cooking at AC Milan at the moment. Zlatan Ibrahimović might not like him, but he’s got Milan 4th in a tough league, and 2nd on Understat’s expected points. They also happened to beat Inter.

I think their issues are more personnel than coach-based. They have a lot of the same type of midfielder — guys who can provide one moment of magic, but are inconsistent performers who provide minimal help to the defenders behind them. Youssouf Fofana was a decent signing as a DM, but Fonseca’s cycled through Tijjani Reijnders, Ismaël Bennacer, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Yunus Musah as his partners, with none performing particularly well.

Fonseca is getting a ton out of the attackers though, with Christian Pulisic improving further following last year’s career-best season and Rafael Leão continuing to be one of the most productive dribblers in Europe. But the really interesting guy is one who looked to be an afterthought inexpensive depth piece: Tammy Abraham!

Tammy’s not finding the production to match the underlying numbers yet, and he had a pretty comical miss against Udinese on the weekend, but he’s slowly building form after returning from a bad injury. If Abraham keeps playing like this, the goals are going to come, and then so is the big permanent transfer.

Milan’s opponents, Club Brugge, are off to an understandably shaky start this year after doing a lot of transfer business in the offseason. But there’s signs that things are turning around for the better, with a win over Sturm Graz in the last round of Champions League and another victory last weekend against Westerlo. Their xG difference is up to +0.87 per 90 in the Belgian league, and big offseason signing Christos Tzolis is playing well.

I like Milan to win this game and give Fonseca a little job security, but their midfield issues keep me from saying that with any kind of confidence.

Tuesday late — Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund

A clash between two teams that should be a lot better than they are, based on their squad’s talent level.

We’ll start with Madrid, who got a good vibes result this weekend. Away win against a good opponent! Vini Jr. and Kylian Mbappe both scored! They had lower xG and didn’t have a shot in the last 25 minutes of the game! Wait, that last one’s bad.

Madrid still lack a consistent progressive midfield passer, since Luka Modrić can’t play 90 minutes twice a week at his current age. His through ball assist to Vini suggested this team can be great if they can ever find a younger guy to replace Modrić and/or Toni Kroos, but they don’t appear to have an internal solution. The current 4-4-2 diamond is doing a better job of creating quality shots than the 4-3-3 they started the season with, but I don’t know if Carlo Ancelotti can scheme around lacking an elite passing midfielder.

Nuri Şahin continues to dance on the edge of getting sacked at Dortmund, though his team performed better than the scoreboard indicated in a 2-1 win over St. Pauli over the weekend. I have not particularly enjoyed their super narrow 4-3-3 with “wingers” who are actually center forwards or central midfielders who do not look comfortable in wide positions. They’re also playing a lot of defenders who are good passers, but bad at actual defending. An Emre Can-Pascal Groß double pivot does not provide a lot of cover in defensive transition.

I’m not high on either of these teams’ trophy-winning prospects this season. But Dortmund’s team seems uniquely ill-equipped to handle the individual brilliance of Vini and Mbappe.

Wednesday early — Atalanta vs. Celtic

You’re going to laugh at me for saying this, but Celtic’s 7-1 loss to Dortmund wasn’t that bad. The xG difference was less than 1 goal, and Dortmund’s xG was under 3, even with the two penalties. A combination of lucky finishing and a couple whoopsies from Kasper Schmeichel made what should have been something like a 3-1 win for Dortmund look crazy.

But I still have no idea if Celtic are good enough to compete with clubs from the big leagues, and Atalanta are the exact type of team you do not want to see them come up against if you’re rooting for Scotland to boost their coefficient. They’ve got 18 goals in 8 Serie A games, and it’s coming from about 18 xG.

One player I’ve really enjoyed watching is their new signing Mateo Retegui, a physical striker who joined from Genoa for €28 million. He’s got 8 goals in 8 games, overperforming his xG because of some really brilliant headed finishes.

Retegui usually drifts right in Atalanta’s 3-4-2-1/3-5-2 system, where Ademola Lookman is kind of a weird half-forward, half-attacking midfielder who spends a lot of time in the left half-space. This should put him in direct opposition with Liam Scales, who’s been very good in the air this season, but he’s not gone up against strikers with the quality (or pure muscle) of Retegui.

Wednesday late — Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich

The big one, and possibly a preview of the final.

I think it’s very cool that we’re in a season without a clear super team, and big question marks around all of the big clubs that we’d expect to be competitive to win the competition, but these are the two best teams in the world at the moment. Bayern Munich and Barcelona’s attacks have been absolutely outrageous in their domestic leagues so far this season.

Harry Kane and Robert Lewandowski, probably the two best center forwards of their generation, are defying any ideas of age-related decline. Kane has 8 goals in 7 Bundesliga games, and had a 4-goal performance against Dinamo Zagreb in this competition. Lewandowski has 12 goals in 10 La Liga games, and scored twice against Young Boys.

They’re obviously doing this thanks to some elite support, with Raphinha and Lamine Yamal having outrageous seasons for Barcelona, while Jamal Musiala and Michael Olise emerge as superstars for Bayern.

In the premium gambling post, Ted said I’d have some analysis on this game, but I cannot help you make a gambling decision here. I don’t know how to separate these teams, and I have no desire to pick a winner. I’m just going to enjoy watching what could be the highest quality football match played anywhere in the world this year. —KM

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