The Champions League game to watch in each timeslot

Hey friends, if you’re wondering why today’s newsletter is a little late, it’s because the water pipes in my house froze. Apparently -30 celsius/-22 fahrenheit is the point at which things can go horribly wrong even in an insulated house with a functioning furnace. We pointed a heater at the pipe and thankfully it’s fine now.

Anyway, welcome back to the Champions League! If you’re interested in how a professional bettor is looking at these games, you can check out the premium newsletter here. We’ve reached the part of the competition where some teams have been mathematically eliminated and a handful of others need to win this week to keep their chances alive. Two particularly desperate teams — Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City — play each other.

You probably already knew that game would be on our list of ones that we’re watching. Here’s one more for each timeslot. —KM

Early Tuesday — Monaco vs. Aston Villa

These two teams both look like good bets to make the 2nd stage of the competition, but they’re in a tough battle for top 8 and guaranteed progression to the round of 16.

The January transfer window doesn’t look like it’ll be a particularly eventful one, but Aston Villa have been in the news. They’ve already signed forward Donyell Malen, and that’s led to speculation about whether they’ll cash in on Jhon Durán. They’ve rejected a £57m bid from West Ham, quoting them (and PSG) a price of £85m.

In the Premier League, Duran has genuinely taken a big step forward and is producing the kind of shot volume and quality you’d expect from an extremely expensive striker. In Champions League, he’s been a bit luckier and less productive, putting up just 0.86 xG.

But Duran’s scored 3 absolute bangers against top opponents from those lower quality chances, and he seems like he’s able to do that kind of thing a bit more often than your average striker. Combining that skill with actual consistent shooting output is going to make him the kind of player someone takes a big financial risk on. I just don’t know if it’ll be an £85m one.

On the other side, Monaco have been a really solid attacking team in both Ligue 1 and the Champions League. Their defense has let them down a bit against top competition, which has hurt their ability to create chances on the counter at CL level, but they’re still a really good all-around attack.

They just need to stop giving up really high quality chances. The biggest defensive metric they drop off in at CL level is xG per shot, and their opponents have 4 goals from inside the 6-yard box in the competition.

Late Tuesday — Atlético Madrid vs. Bayer Leverkusen

These teams are currently separated by 7 places, but only 1 point. If either wins, they’ll be in a great position to finish top 8, while the loser will likely drop out of those positions. A draw would set up a very dramatic final day for both.

Bayer Leverkusen has a lot of young players who get a lot of hype for potential rich club transfers. 28-year-old streaky striker Patrik Schick is not one of them, but he’s on one of his crazy hot streaks at the moment. He scored this weekend, and he’s up to 12 goals from 6 xG in the Bundesliga. He will soon disappear again, but this is certainly fun while it lasts!

On the other side, please enjoy this glorious defensive radar. Atléti buy and sell star players while changing between back 3 and 4 formations from season to season, but they never change their core identity.

Through several eras of ultra-high pressing or low block defending coming into fashion, Atléti have remained the one team that’s always amazing at preventing high quality chances for opponents while sitting in shape and letting them have as much of the ball as they want. No one else has a defensive radar that looks like this.

Diego Simeone is one of one.

Early Wednesday — Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Brest

Brest are one of the best stories of the Champions League this year, sitting in 6th with a low budget and a squad of undervalued veterans that resembles an island of misfit toys. Shakhtar haven’t been able to play in their home stadium for a decade, but they’re still competing at the highest level. I’m very much rooting for both of these teams to progress.

We’ve highlighted Shakhtar midfield Georgiy Sudakov on this newsletter before, and he continues to be a consistent playmaker at Ukrainian league and Champions League level. It might not happen this January, but someone in the top leagues is going to buy this guy and build their team around his playmaking ability.

Meanwhile, on the other side, we’ve got one of my favorite players. Billy, this is Ludovic Ajorque. He’s 2 meters tall and the best striker in the world at winning aerial battles. His defect is that he doesn’t shoot the ball. I think we can sign him for 2 baguettes and a wedge of brie.

Late Wednesday — PSG vs. Manchester City

The Big One. A virtual eliminator. If either team loses this game, they’re going to be in deep trouble on the final day. If it’s a draw, they’ll both go into the last round needing a result to progress. And this is just to get top 24; they’ve been virtually eliminated from top 8.

On the City side, I wanted to highlight the Champions League performances of Phil Foden, which have been surprisingly very good. He had a dreadful first half of the season in the Premier League (before picking up his form recently), but he’s never really stopped being PHIL FODEN in the Champions League. Even as his team has faltered, he’s been an effective shooter, dribbler, and passer.

This makes me really hopeful that Foden’s poor first half of the Premier League season was a bit of an anomaly and he’ll be back to superstar production shortly.

PSG have recently made a huge transfer, signing Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Napoli. He won’t be available for their next two Champions League games, but I would like to once again highlight the case for why they didn’t need him at all.

Bradley Barcola and Lee Kang-In are both being linked to moves away from PSG following Kvara’s purchase, and my big question is: Why? These dudes are not just total studs, but complementary ones. Lee is a top creator and Barcola a top scorer.

These should be your cornerstone pieces! Build the team around them! Keep them and buy players in other positions that have different skills! It’s as if PSG’s management thinks players are only valuable to them if they’ve become big names outside of PSG, and guys who made their name at their club aren’t real star players. Maybe they’ll get over their weird inferiority complex someday.

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