The Champions League game to watch in each timeslot

Most weeks we’ve done this column, it’s been pretty easy to pick out the Champions League games I’m most interested in watching, and I can catch the rest via the Golazo channel on a 2nd screen and/or a highlights show later. But I’m going to have to carve out some time for replay watching this week, because it’s banger central.

Over on the premium newsletter, Ted has his bets for Tuesday’s Champions League and EFL Championship games. He’s up on the season in England, but down in Europe, and it’s interesting to see how the process improves as he gets back into the full-time gambling thing.

He’s going to start increasing bet sizes proportional with subscribers soon, and you can upgrade here.

OK, onto the games. —KM

Early Tuesday: Girona vs. Liverpool

One of the big favorites playing the early window? Is this allowed?

Liverpool has been on a tear in Champions League this season, and they’ll be big favorites against a Girona team that looks like they’re on their way to exiting European competition. I don’t have a lot of match-level analysis here; Liverpool is better in every way and should win, but maybe they don’t because Girona have La Liga level players and sometimes stuff happens.

Arguably Liverpool’s top Champions League performer this campaign has been a player who has been fairly disappointing in Premier League play. Cody Gakpo’s shot locations in the Premier League have been horrific, but in Champions League he’s scored a couple of headers from 6 yards, one from open play and one from a corner.

Gakpo’s a pretty poor shooter from the edge of the box, but awesome when he gets to crash the 6-yard box.

Late Tuesday: Atalanta vs. Real Madrid

We’re spoiled for choice here, with Bayer Leverkusen vs. Inter Milan also deserving consideration. But I couldn’t pass up the Serie A leaders hosting the defending champions. Bayer-Inter should be a defensive chess match; this game should feature more goals.

Kylian Mbappe has gotten off to a poor start at Real Madrid, but things might be turning around for him. Surprise, one of the best players in the world did not magically become crap overnight. His shots map is starting to look nice, and he scored a stunning goal from a narrow angle 0.02 xG chance this weekend.

Still, if Mbappe is going to be a full-time center forward, he should probably be a lot more of a threat to score from that big blank area to the right of the penalty spot.

We went over how good Atalanta have been in the Friday newsletter, and they went on to beat AC Milan to go top of Serie A a few hours after that was published. This is one where Ted and I have some disagreement — given Madrid’s injury list, I really like Atalanta’s chances to win at home, and I think a draw is more likely than a Madrid win.

Early Wednesday: Lille vs. Sturm Graz

We got a decent early game on Tuesday, and then get hit with two on Wednesday that are not great. So let’s talk about Lille’s Jonathan David, who has run down his contract and looks set to pick up a fat signing bonus from someone this summer when he signs on a free transfer.

David is a fairly limited striker, but one that’s useful to just about any team. He presses his tail off and has good shot selection. He’s also comfortable playing on the wing in a pinch. But given how many great Champions League highlights he’s had this year, I was a bit surprised to see his shooting stats are unspectacular. He’s just made the most of the big opportunities he’s gotten.

Thankfully for Johnny, Sturm Graz are fertile ground for stat farming. I think he’ll find his way to the Premier League come summer.

Late Wednesday: Dortmund vs. Barcelona

This game, Arsenal-Monaco, and Juventus-Man City are all on at the same time. Hey UEFA! Move one of them to the early window!

Lamine Yamal has been covered extensively on the midweek podcasts where Patrick and Ravi talk Champions League and La Liga, but we haven’t talked about him much here. Mostly because this newsletter is slanted towards discussion about the transfer market, and Yamal will not be moving clubs any time in the next decade. But oh my god, look at his key passes in La Liga.

The boys have presented the idea on the pod that Yamal is already the best player in La Liga at 17 years old. His production as a passer, shooter and dribbler suggest that might be the case. But surprisingly, Yamal hasn’t really produced in Champions League this season. It’s a tiny sample and in no way worrying, but we’re still waiting for a superstar performance in this competition.

He’s got a pretty tough matchup this week too — Dortmund left back Ramy Bensebiani is 80th percentile or better in Europe’s top leagues for tackles and interceptions per 90, tackle%, and defensive action OBV. That should be an outstanding individual battle to watch.

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