The BIG Champions League Swiss Finale

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I finished down small over the weekend, so I guess the streak is over, but it didn’t feel that bad due to all the winning prior. Now we need to start a new one!

Today we need to talk about DGF…

What is DGF?
It’s betting syndicate shorthand for “Don’t Give a Fuck” and is used to refer to matches where teams lack incentives to win.

Example: League matches late in the season where the teams are safely midtable and have nothing riding on the result, compared to teams that are scrapping either for European places or to stave off relegation.

Obviously DGF is REALLY important today, because there are six matches where the result matters not at all. Two matches where the results will determine whether the teams directly make the knockout rounds. And then ten matches that either have some KO jeopardy or Top 8 placement + a bye and some rest involved.

The betting approach to DGFs varies by person, bankroll, and how much you agree that teams will actually acknowledge the situation. In many cases, professionals still bet, but reduce the size of those wagers due to increased uncertainty. Or they add a motivation factor to their team ratings to compensate for some level of mismatched incentives.

The other pitfall is huge lineup changes for exhausted teams that do not care about today’s matches.

Today’s a bit of a crapshoot - I would not blame you for sitting it out.

Stuttgart v PSG +.25 1.75/2.21 OR +.25 -133/+121
Ted's Bets: PSG -.25

A BUBBLE MATCH. Both of these teams have 10 points. They really care about their result and the result of the City match. Probably. Unless they don’t. But they will only know that while the match is going on.

A draw puts both teams on 11, which seems fairly certain to qualify them, but it also brings the Benfica and Sporting CP matches into play, and potentially puts Brugge into trouble? And it affects their potential opponents for the next round.

I think Stuttgart struggled in the early season, but have been improving domestically as time has gone on. PSG have been destructive in France, but rarely in the CL.

And yet… as we covered last week on the podcast, the numbers are really good in the CL even before they monstered City.

I’m on Paris today, but maybe be careful about the sizing if you’re worried both teams may decide to twig to the draw.

Man City v Club Brugge -2.25 2.06/1.84 OR -2.25 +106/-119
Ted's Bets: No Bets

City must win.
Brugge are DGF.

I think the City line is too low. But also… they are still super weird and can’t play any of the new players until the next round, should they make it.

🤮 

Salzburg v Atletico Madrid +1.25 1.94/1.96 OR +1.25 -106/-104
Ted's Bets: Atletico Madrid -1.25

Salzburg are dead.
Atleti need a point to secure probable top 8, but could still get it if various other matches go their way.

I have been hating on Salzburg against every good team since round 1. They changed head coaches, but I’m not sure that matters much outside their league.

I usually don’t like betting on Atleti on the road, but this team feels a bit different this year, and I think Simeone gets it done.

Boring 0-0 incoming? 😬 Under 3 might be a decent hedge if you’re concerned about it?

Lille v Feyenoord -.25 1.86/2.05 OR -.25 -116/+105
Ted's Bets: No Bets

This is a live one for both. If either team wins, they probably lock a Top 8 bye.

Feyenoord’s head coach Brian Priske was on his way to being fired, despite having the second best xGD in the league and likely being qualified for the CL knockouts. I guess they had too many away draws, or needed to beat the big Dutch rivals.

And then his team beat Bayern Munich, and suddenly they could NOT fire him due to fan PR. I imagine that is a tough, uncomfortable position for a coach to be in, but also one that just comes with the job. Priske hasn’t exactly deterred future suitors with the job he’s done thus far.

Meanwhile, Lille have been legit in this tournament all season. As much as I’d like to root against their metrics in France, or be on the scrappy underdog that just beat Bayern Munich, I just can’t pull the trigger.

Inter Milan v Monaco -1.0 2.05/1.86 OR -1.0 +105/-116
Ted's Bets: Monaco +1

Inter have 16 points, a decent goal difference and should be top 8. So probable DGF?
Monaco could get Top 8 with a win.

Intriguing… at +1 this absolutely feels like a Monaco bet, not least because Inter are a huge under team. I should have bet on Monaco last round too.

Barcelona v Atalanta -.75 1.95/1.95 OR -.75 -105/-105
Ted's Bets: CHECK LINEUPS

Barca are locks.
Atalanta need a win to lock top 8.

Large mismatched incentives on this one. And yet… I wouldn’t make this bet unless the Barca lineup is all second 11 or worse. Which it absolutely should be! And if it is, you should lump in on Atalanta to draw or win.

Aston Villa v Celtic -1.0 1.86/2.05 OR -1.0 -116/+105
Ted's Bets: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Villa are fatigued, but are also win and probable Top 8
Celtic are DGF

Hahahaha you want me to bet on either Aston Villa OR Celtic in Europe? The fuck you do.

Bayer Leverkusen v Sparta Prague -2.5 1.98/1.90 OR -2.5 -102/-111
Ted's Bets: Bayer Leverkusen -2.5, but not full size.

Leverkusen need a win for Top 8.
Prague are dead.

I was debating this one, but Leverkusen have proven they can blow out teams in the CL when they want to go for it. I think they do here. Obviously they just need a win, so may play it safe after a lead - which is why 2.5 feels a little scary… hence I am dialing down the size a touch here, being worried they may camp on a 2-0.

Juventus v Benfica -.25 1.88/2.02 OR -.25 -113/+102
Ted's Bets: No Bets

Juve are qualified, but DGF.
Benfica might need a point to be safe?

[still grumbling about Juve from last week]

Dinamo Zagreb v AC Milan +1.0 2.05/1.86 OR +1.0 +105/-116
Ted's Bets: No Bets

Zagreb need a win and some help (due to their goal difference) to lock Top 24.
Milan need a draw to probably get Top 8.

Brest v Real Madrid +1.5 1.85/2.06 OR +1.5 -117/+106
Ted's Bets: Real Madrid -1.5

Brest need to win to get Top 8. Good luck!
This match probably does not directly matter for Real Madrid either way.

Since the start of December, Real Madrid are 11-1-1 (ignoring the oddball SuperCopa loss to Barca on neutral ground). Their last six wins have been by three or more goals. They seem to be firing on at least the vast majority of their cylinders, which is useful because we’re getting into the time of the season where matches start to matter.

Outside the Champions League, Brest have not beaten a good team all season. (Lyon do not count.)

INSIDE the Champions League… Brest beat PSV, and that is the only good team they have defeated. They lost 2-0 to Shakhtar last match day. Not great, Bob!

Did I just talk myself into a full bet on Real Madrid in what should be a DGF game for them? You betcha!

Sporting CP v Bologna -1.25 2.05/1.86 OR -1.25 +105/-116
Ted's Bets: [Check lineups for Bologna resting a bunch of players]

Sporting are on the bubble.
Bologna are dead. And boring. But also capable of making other teams boring.

Young Boys v Crvena Zvezda Pick’Em (0) 1.93/1.98 OR Pick’Em (0) -108/-102
Ted's Bets: No Bets

Double dead.

The most epic of DGFs. Only pride on the line here, and maybe a shop window to sell on players in the transfer windows.

Girona v Arsenal +1.0 1.89/2.02 OR +1.0 -112/+102
Ted's Bets: No Bets

Arsenal 99.8% locked for top 8 and should only play children.
Girona are dead.

Epic DGF. If Arteta puts a real player on the pitch, someone should tackle him and have him committed.

PSV v Liverpool +.25 1.98/1.93 OR +.25 -102/-108
Ted's Bets: No Bets

Double DGF.

So Liverpool SHOULD be big favs here, but this line says “the Scousers are only playing second teamers and children.”

Sturm Graz v RB Leipzig +.5 1.97/1.93 OR +.5 -103/-107
Ted's Bets: No Bets

Double dead. Lean Leipzig?

Borussia Dortmund v Shakhtar Donetsk -1.5 2.03/1.88 OR -1.5 +103/-114
Ted's Bets: No Bets

Should be double DGF. Do Dortmund even have a coach?

Bayern Munich v Slovan Bratislava -4.25 2.01/1.86 OR -4.25 +101/-116
Ted's Bets: No Bets

Bayern are probably locked out of Top 8.
Slovan are dead dead.

This handicap is -4.25. Seriously.

Good luck! And enjoy trying to fit the scores of EIGHTEEN matches at once into your head tonight.

—TK

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