Surprise key to the Madrid derby: A coach's son

Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid face off this weekend in a match that should be crucial in the La Liga title race. With Real slipping up last week while Atléti and Barcelona turned around recent poor runs of form, it’s looking like the three teams could be in tight competition all the way until the end of the season.

All three of these clubs made high profile transfers this summer, and are constantly linked to massive sales and purchases. So of course, I’m using this newsletter to discuss a key player who came out of nowhere and cost absolutely nothing: Diego Simeone’s son.

Giuliano Simeone, the Atléti coach’s youngest, has stunningly emerged as an important cog in his dad’s system. He’s started the last 8 La Liga matches in a row, and leads all La Liga right wingers in xA per 90. Like, ahead of Lamine Yamal. He’s also a good passer, doesn’t take poor shots, and — you’re gonna be shocked by this one — works hard defensively.

Youngest Simeone appeared to be on a solid trajectory for a few years. He scored 25 goals for Atléti’s B team in his age 19 season, then had a successful loan to Segunda side Real Zaragoza in his age 20 season. Last year, he struggled a bit on loan to Deportivo Alavés in La Liga, and it looked like he might no longer be on the path towards becoming a key player for his parent (lol) club.

But Simeone played as a cut-inside left winger for Alavés, and it didn’t really suit him. His dad is playing him on the right, either as a more defensive right winger against good opponents, or as an attacking right wingback against poor ones. The result is that he’s playing square balls across the 6-yard box and racking up a crap-ton of high xG shot assists.

Would a young player who had an unsuccessful age 21 loan have been considered for a bigger role in the Atlético Madrid squad if he wasn’t the manager/godking’s son? Man, I don’t know. But Giuliano is genuinely one of the best players in La Liga at the moment. Whether Diego was right because he’s one of the best coaches of all time or because he’s a dad who loves his son, he was ultimately correct to give Giuliano more opportunities.

Over on the premium newsletter, Ted focuses on the EFL Championship this week. There’s value to be found on the FA Cup, but it’s pretty dependent on lineups that come out an hour before kickoff, so we didn’t want to give you any bad info.

Because there’s no EPL this weekend, our partner Bet105 is running our usual promo for La Liga instead. Moneylines are -103 instead of the usual -105.

They’re also running a promo on the big NFL game, AKA the Superb Owl, with discount odds running up until the game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET/11:30 p.m. UK.

If you sign up for an account, please use our link found here. And if you don’t use the link, tell them you came from Variance Betting. You get a discount, and we get a little commission.

We don’t always round up links to our stuff from earlier in the week, since it’s often fairly time-sensitive material. But this week’s stuff is all pretty evergreen, so I thought we’d highlight it in case anyone missed the stuff from earlier in the week:

A roundup of the biggest EPL transfers.

A roundup of the biggest continental European transfers.

Mohamed Mohamed on Mathys Tel’s potential for Tottenham.

Games we’re watching

Como vs. Juventus — The transfer window’s most active team vs. a huge club that’s scraping and clawing to hang on to a Champions League place.

Birmingham City vs. Newcastle — The top team in League One should have an insane crowd on hand for its biggest match in several years.

Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid — Ancelotti vs. Simeone is as good as tactical chess matches get.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Stuttgart — Two super desperate teams in an insane race for 4th place in the Bundesliga.

PSG vs. Monaco — Really excited to watch Barcola not start on the left again, sorry I’m not getting over this ever. New Monaco striker Mika Biereth is very fun.

Stuff we’re reading

Ryan O’Hanlon and Alex Kirkland at ESPN ask if Kylian Mbappe is so back or if it’s so over.

Grace Robertson at Grace on Football has come to the heartbreaking realization that the new UEFA Champions League format absolutely slaps.

Nick Harris at Sporting Intelligence says that format is great for Celtic… and terrible for the rest of Scottish football.

David Astill at Total Football Analysis breaks down how David Moyes’ tactics have turned around Everton’s season.

Rachel Cohen at The Cutback wonders if fans of Spurs women should be worried by their roller-coaster results. Got to love a club that has a consistent DNA across all departments.

Donald Walker at The Guardian went in search of diehard fans who suddenly stop attending matches.

Sam Parry at Not The Top 20 takes a look at the annoying trend of fake goalkeeper injuries and what can be done about it.

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