Sorry Conor Gallagher, you have to come home

Hello friends. Every once in a while we’re going to link to a bunch of other people who are doing work we enjoy, as well as plugging our stuff that we’re doing off this platform. The transfer rumours are still here at the bottom as always, but I hope you’ll give some of these folks a bit of your time.

To get the self-promo out of the way up top: We have a podcast! In the most recent episode, Patrick van Straaten and Ravi Ramineni talk about Dani Olmo to Barcelona and Mikel Arteta’s pickpocketing scheme, among other things. If you prefer audio-only to YouTube, you can find us by searching for The Transfer Flow Podcast on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, and our RSS feed is here for other platforms.

Ted, Patrick and Ravi will keep doing the regular shows on a weekly basis, but keep an eye out for upcoming episodes with special guests focusing specifically on the Championship and La Liga.

We’ve also launched our initial content for Variance Betting, with Ted talking about his picks for the Premier League season and the reasoning behind his betting strategies. Once Ted gets back from his holiday, we’ll be launching a paid newsletter where Ted goes into detail about which bets he’s making each week and his methodology.

OK, onto stuff I’ve liked from other folks recently.

The Double Pivot Podcast from Mike Goodman and Michael Caley has been one of my favorites since it’s launched. They’re previewing every Premier League team in alphabetical order.

Not The Top 20 Podcast has 1-24 predictions for all three divisions in the Football League, plus a review of all the games from the first matchday.

Bill Connelly at ESPN is best known for his college football (gridiron) work, but he’s a big (association) football fan too, and I loved his recent piece on how to categorize different teams’ styles of play.

Grace On Football is consistently excellent. Her most recent piece was about how Manchester United’s recent management changes have stopped their bleeding, but not really fixed anything yet.

Karim El-Shesheiny at Total Football Analysis put a ton of time into analyzing the set pieces of Premier League teams in preseason to see what new ideas they might be bringing into this campaign.

Swiss Ramble is the GOAT of analyzing football finances, and he chronicled the downfall of Bordeaux.

Josh Williams at Distance Covered has some great thoughts on how Darwin Nuñez’s game might change under Arne Slot.

Tactics Journal by Kyle Boas is a really enjoyable blog of bite-sized micro-tactics analyses, with the most recent post being about how Leicester were exposed in a pre-season friendly.

News and rumours

• Conor Gallagher’s been told to come back to London as a negotiating ploy while Chelsea try to get Joao Felix for as little money as possible. His family literally got a tour of the Atléti stadium, and they posted pictures of it on their social media accounts, announcing a deal was almost done.
  
  He’s back in Chelsea training, but he’s still not allowed into the first team facilities at Cobham. I imagine this will get worked out, because Felix wants to go to Chelsea and Atléti want to get rid of him, but how pissed do you think Gallagher is right now?

• With Chelsea backing out of the deal to sign Samu Omorodion, he’s now subject to interest from Napoli and RB Leipzig. I think this would be a much better move for Napoli than paying €30m + €8m a year wages for an aging Romelu Lukaku, but we know how much Antonio Conte loves his godson.

• Speaking of RB Leipzig, they’ve spent €21m + incentives to sign winger Antonio Nusa from Club Brugge. His highlights pop, but he’s not actually that productive, and he took a step back from his age 18 to 19 season. I can see the argument that he could really pop and become a superstar if he develops his footballing brain a bit, but I don’t like this move.

• Negotiations for the O’Riley-Koopmeiners set of moves continues to chug along, but Celtic seem pissed that Atalanta are lowballing them. I think that all of this eventually goes down, but I’m interested to hear about what up-and-coming J. League or Scandinavian star Celtic are targeting in midfield.

• Celtic are also reportedly close to securing striker Adam Idah from Norwich for about £8m + some add-ons. He’s been really inconsistent in his career, but had some great performances on loan at Celtic last year, maybe this is what finally gets him to kick on.

• While Brighton continue to go for high variance youngsters in attacking roles — Brajan Gruda is reportedly close to joining from Mainz for £25m — they seem to be a bit more willing to go for prime age, lower risk players in defensive positions. They’ve been linked to 26-year-old PSV defender Olivier Boscagli in Dutch media, and a lot of outlets are running with the story that they’re in for 24-year-old Fenerbahce fullback Ferdi Kadioglu. I’d be nervous about paying big fees for defenders from the Dutch and Turkish leagues, honestly.

• Arsenal would like to upgrade at backup goalkeeper while booking a bit of a profit at the same time. They’ve rejected a loan bid from Ajax for Aaron Ramsdale, and are trying to negotiate a permanent sale. At the same time, they’re being linked to Espanyol’s 22-year-old Joan Garcia, who was an excellent shot-stopper in the Spanish Segunda last season.

• Roma are in negotiations with Saudi team Al-Qadsiah to sell Paulo Dybala for about €12m. I think getting his big wage off their books and getting a fee at the same time is good for Roma, and I’m interested to see if they can re-invest the money into a young attacker this window.

• Brentford have apparently held firm on their £60m valuation of Ivan Toney in the face of a Manchester United inquiry, despite his contract expiring next year. I’m going to go out on a limb — someone can absolutely get Toney for less than £60m this summer.

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