Some Arsenal-Real Madrid narrative busting

The UEFA Champions League quarterfinal tie between Arsenal and Real Madrid looks likely to be an absolute banger, but I don’t love the way I’ve seen a lot of folks talking about it over the last couple days. So let’s challenge a bit of conventional wisdom.

Conquering the Narrative

Real Madrid finds a way to win in Champions League, no matter how crap they are. Arsenal finds a way to blow it in Champions League, no matter how good they are. This is supposed to be an analytics-focused newsletter, where we try very hard to not get caught in traps like that, but I’d be lying if I said I was confident that this won’t play out again.

I can’t look away from the hard data, though. Arsenal are the best defensive team in Champions League. Real Madrid’s defense is bang average.

The argument for Madrid being better is that they feel better. The crest carries weight, the names on the team sheet carry weight. But they’re just… not. They’re not playing better than Arsenal right now. If a team with this defensive profile had any other name and crest, we’d be here arguing that regression to the mean is inevitable and they’re going to lose a game by 2 or 3 goals pretty soon.

Have you heard about this Bukayo Saka guy?

Arsenal have eased Bukayo Saka back into fitness, playing him for 30 minutes a couple weeks ago and 45 minutes over the weekend. He’s in line to start for the Gunners on Tuesday, and you probably don’t need this newsletter to tell you that they’re a much better team when he plays.

Saka is one of the best all-around wingers on the planet. He’s a mega elite dribbler and assister, as well as a solid plus shooter. If he ever adds a tiiiiny bit more shot value to his game (or just has a really lucky shooting season), he’s going to be contending for the Ballon d’Or.

Between Arsenal’s recent league form and Saka not having shown his best yet since returning from injury, it’s easy to be pessimistic about Arsenal’s chances here, but this is a very good matchup for him.

I don’t think Fran Garcia is as good of a matchup for Saka as the injured Ferland Mendy, plus left center back Antonio Rüdiger is struggling with a knock, plus defensive midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni is suspended, limiting Madrid’s options to pack the center. I think we’ve got some excellent conditions for a magical Saka performance.

If Madrid win, it’ll come on the break

Speaking of un-analytical conventional narratives, a lot of people seem to think that because Real Madrid are a) good, b) rich, and c) Spanish, they love to dominate possession and play The Beautiful Game. Like, for instance, former Everton goalkeeper and television analyst Tim Howard.

Real Madrid have players who are excellent in space on the counter-attack, but pretty average at pressing. The departure of Toni Kroos has left them without a reliable way to break down bunkered defenses. This is not a team that wants to dominate possession.

In the two legs against Manchester City, Real Madrid had 47% possession away and 48% in the home leg. They had just 52% at home against the notably possession-averse Atlético Madrid. And a quick selection of some other games: 52% vs. Dortmund, 45% vs. Atalanta, 38% vs. Liverpool, and 43% in El Clásico vs. Barcelona.

Arsenal is going to have a ton of the ball. The game will be decided by what happens in the 5 seconds after they lose it.

Some quick thoughts on the other Champions League games:

• Over on the Premium betting newsletter, Ted likes Inter +0.5. I’m not going to put your own money on the line against a team of Bayern’s quality at home, but I think Inter is perfectly set up to absorb pressure and score on the break without making really significant alterations to the tactics they play in most regular Serie A matches. It’s the same 3-5-2 structure, just with a bit less risk-taking from the wingbacks and one of the CMs.

• On the podcast, the boys huff some hopium for why Aston Villa and Borussia Dortmund can pull off massive upsets. I like PSG and Barca by 3+ goals each over the whole tie. And I’ll be honest, it’s what my heart wants as much as my brain. Underdog stories are cool… in the domestic leagues and cups. In Champions League, I want a semifinal with 4 proper big dogs.

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