Should your club sign this striker on a free?

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I’m a big fan of Wednesday’s standalone early Champions League match being the closest tie. I have no idea which of Lille or Dortmund is the better team, and I’m expecting another very competitive match after their 1-1 draw in the first leg.

This game also features a lot of players who are likely to be the subject of transfer speculation and bids over the summer, which I’m assuming readers of this newsletter are interested in. Some quick mentions of guys to pay close attention to: Lille midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi and Dortmund winger Jamie Gittens are two of the hottest properties in world football at the moment.

But those two are very young, and might decide that another year at their current clubs is the best thing for their development. On the other hand, Lille striker Jonathan David is definitely moving on this summer. He’s rejected several contract offers and has made it clear that he’ll move on a free transfer this summer.

David is definitely a solid all-around striker, and he’s racking up serious counting stats in the Champions League. But is the center forward solution for a top club?

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OK, back to David. His radars are not exactly screaming “top striker.” His xG per 90 in Ligue 1 is fine, and it actually hasn’t been very impressive at all in the Champions League. But David will fetch a lot of interest because he’s a very good all-around player. He’s an extremely hard-working presser, an above average dribbler, and sets up his teammates for shots a solid amount too.

David is one of the Champions League’s top scorers with 8 goals, though 3 have come on penalties. He’s overperforming his xG by quite a bit, with neither high shot volume or extremely high xG chances. If you watch the highlights there are some very nice finishes in here, but I’m willing to say he’s running very hot.

David’s also been pretty lucky to rack up the 4 assists he has, though his two highest xA key passes weren’t finished off. Still, this is a decent amount of setting up teammates for a center forward that’s supposed to be the primary goal-scorer.

Looking at Ligue 1, David has a solid number of super high xG chances, but his shot volume isn’t exactly impressive. I’d like to see a striker for a team contending for European places put up more than 44 shots in 1,814 minutes at the position. Once again, Jon’s looking like a bit of a penalty merchant.

OK, that last bit was rude. But my point still stands that David’s “8 Champions League goals” and “14 Ligue 1 goals” is a bit of a mirage. He’s not putting up superstar striker xG or shot volume, and a lot of his goals are pens.

David’s work rate, athletic ability and consistent availability will make him an appealing squad player for big clubs on a free transfer, but I can’t imagine he’ll be seen as more than a high quality backup. He’s going to have to make a difficult decision this summer: Does he prioritize making the most money, winning trophies, or being the clear first choice No. 9? He’s not finding all 3 of those things at any one destination. He’d be extremely lucky to find 2.

I’d take him on any team in the world if he wanted to play for me, but I’m not sure how big of an upgrade he’ll get on Lille if he expects to be the main man up top. Maybe he’ll change some minds about that with a big performance against Dortmund, or in the quarterfinals.

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