Serie A has the best game of the week this Friday

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Hello, and welcome to the Friday grab bag. If you are into betting, Ted had the gambling newsletter up earlier, with the usual market-implied model odds and picks for the Premier League and Championship. There are some pretty good internal battles this week between trusting the math or adjusting for injuries and/or what your eyes are seeing.

Usually this post has a look at a Premier League team or player who’s interesting for the weekend, but the Serie A headliner was too good to pass up. Seriously, you should watch Atalanta and Milan.

Before we get going, some business. Today’s newsletter is sponsored by 1440 Media, which produces a news roundup that I enjoy reading every morning and find useful. It would help us a lot if you clicked the link and checked them out.

OK, onto the football. —KM

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Atalanta vs. AC Milan should be a banger

Gian Piero Gasperini is a man after the heart of stats nerds. His Atalanta side are No. 1 in Serie A in high press shots, clear shots, and counter-attacking shots. They’re above 90th percentile in top European leagues for all of those things too. They’re also near the bottom of the league for shots from outside the box. Their 3-4-3 system creates so many quality shooting opportunities, and so few speculative ones.

Their best player this season, and arguably the best in Serie A period, has been Ademola Lookman. When he was linked to a move back to England this summer, we said that he’d been performing great, but teams should beware of the stat inflation that Atalanta’s system and his specific role produces.

I’d still have the same concerns about a team trying to buy him that doesn’t play exactly how Atalanta does — which is no one — but his quality is totally undeniable. Their weird half-winger, half-10 role between a target man and an overlapping wingback seems to be completely made for his skillset, and he’s contributing to the attack in every way possible.

On Friday, Lookman and Atalanta take on an AC Milan team that seems to be on the verge of a crisis constantly. They’re sitting 7th in Serie A, 10 points off the lead. They’ve conceded some real comedy goals this season, and even had a spell of 3 games where star winger Rafael Leão — probably their best player! — was benched for a lack of defensive effort.

Would you believe that Milan’s defense is actually not that bad? It’s fine actually? They’ve just had some spectacular lowlights and conceded a handful of absolute bangers from opponents. Milan’s xG conceded is actually better than both Atalanta and Inter.

But Milan have re-inserted Leão into the lineup recently, and they’ve looked willing to push fullbacks Theo Hernandez and Emerson Royal high up the pitch in search of attacking overloads. Even if Milan’s defense is not as bad as advertised, it might struggle with the best attack in Serie A, especially if the Rossoneri are willing to keep their best attackers in the lineup and engage in a track meet.

I’m hoping for a Leão vs. Lookman shootout, and I think we’re going to get it.

Games we’re watching

As usual, the best place to find TV/streaming and times for your region is LiveSoccerTV.

Atalanta vs. AC Milan — Our aforementioned best game of the weekend.

LA Galaxy vs. New York Red Bulls — NYRB have won the Supporters’ Shield (best regular season record) 3 times, and been the MLS Cup runner-up once, but they’ve never won the playoff final. Their opponent’s best player, Riqui Puig, tore his ACL in the semifinal. You will see grown adults literally sobbing in the stands if they finally get it done.

Athletic Bilbao vs. Villarreal — A European place 6-pointer. These teams look like the best candidates for 4th, and they get into high-scoring games too.

Fulham vs. Arsenal — Yes, there are two much bigger local derbies on this week. But this is the Premier League game with the highest potential to actually be a good football match, and we’ve given you a couple other wild and crazy ones above.

Bayern Munich vs. Heidenheim — The Bundesliga is light on big matchups this week, enjoy some Jamal Musiala highlight farming.

Stuff we’re reading

Anantaajith Raghuraman at The Athletic profiles every team in the Club World Cup, which had its group stage draw this week. And on an extremely related note…

Nick Harris at Sporting Intelligence breaks down Saudi Arabia’s very expensive takeover of global sport, which includes their propping up of the Club World Cup.

Edin Halilović at Total Football Analysis has a big preview of the MLS Cup Final.

Grace Robertson at Grace On Football looks into what’s going wrong at Manchester City.

Kyle Boas at Tactics Journal has an interesting look at the way Arsenal rotates their defenders in an unconventional way.

Llew Davies at Scouted has notes on several interesting players, including Stefanos Tzimas, an 18-year-old lighting up the 2. Bundesliga.

Jessy Parker Humphreys at The Cutback breaks down what we learned from England women’s recent matches.

Jason Anderson at Pro Soccer Wire looks at the candidates to replace Alyssa Naeher as U.S. women goalkeeper following her retirement.

Sid Lowe at ESPN wrote about Las Palmas’ difficult regular travel schedule between the Canary Islands to mainland Spain. [Extremely American voice] This is just what every MLS and NWSL team has to deal with.

The Lads at Not The Top 20 have their managers of the half-season in each of the three EFL leagues.

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