Sancho move agreed, but not with who he REALLY wants

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Fans are insane. Basically by definition.

I remember sitting at a conference at St. George’s Park and listening to England manager Roy Hodgson tell us how he hated the term “fans” and far preferred the word “supporters,” because it conveyed the right tone around England fandom. He’s right, but when you look online at Twitter/Threads/forums, you’ll find the world has largely overruled any sensible boundaries when it comes to football. And in most countries, it was always this way.

When it comes to transfer windows, sense from the fanbase is basically impossible. First of all, if they had their way on transfers, fans would be spending other rich people’s money. Of course they want the most flash, gaudiest transfer window possible. Consequences? There are no consequences! There is only what happens on the pitch this next season and nothing else.

Perhaps more importantly though… transfers represent hope. Hope that one more dribbly boy (or girl), will help create the goal that propels YOUR TEAM to defeat their rivals both home and away, and in the cup this season. Like fanaticism, hope is by definition a little bit irrational. But it helps us get through the weekly grind and make it to the weekend.

On the team side, however… consequences are real.

Budgets exist.

Fuckups deservedly lose their jobs.

The same fans that clamoured for one more signing last summer will shout “ORFF WIV ‘IS ‘EAD” when those (sometimes) rash decisions land the team in the shitter.

That’s where managing risk (and money) comes in. Running a team is a long-term endeavour that clashes with fan desires and sometimes with owners as well.

Sometimes it’s right to tap out in a particular transfer market. Sometimes it’s right to keep the powder dry, waiting for opportunities to arise from teams who made dumb mistakes in recent seasons.

Sometimes, it’s necessary to recoup some of the large cash splashed last summer by selling extra players…

And sometimes, you’re Chelsea.

This late in the window, we’re seeing fascinating new stuff every day. One team I talked to has been looking at Tammy Abraham for years, and they like the player, but they have to balance a large salary against the risk that injuries have either hampered his long-term output, or the risk of re-injury threatens to sideline those big wages too often for a deal to make sense.

Arsenal have done a decent job selling fringe players this summer, but boy does that squad look lean right now, especially given fans once again expect them to compete for the league title and a Champions League trophy. Maybe they are interested in and have need for someone like Raheem Sterling in the squad. But you should also expect them to play extreme hardball with Chelsea on a potential fee and who is covering portions of Sterling’s wages, because why would they not?

I used to think teams did dumb shit when limited to 4- and 5-year increments. Just imagine the damage that can happen across 6, 7, and 8-year timelines.

When your Premier League competitor is over a barrel, you don’t help them up — you stick the knife in and twist a little further.

Liverpool are once again engaging in smart behaviour of exactly this sort with perennial “Magic Money Tree” club Juventus. Federico Chiesa should be a real asset, but he’s an asset on huge wages for a team that has already replaced him with shiny new toys. I have to wonder how much of the transfer “fee” Liverpool are paying goes straight to Juve and how much to cold-blooded agent shark Fali Ramadani for simply removing Chiesa from Juve’s books.

Running a team has changed a lot in the decade since I got involved. There is far less low-hanging fruit available now*, and the introduction of even soft salary cap constraints adds significant degrees of difficulty even for rich teams to operate. But the basic guidelines still look like this:

1. Plan for the long-term.

2. Don’t do dumb shit.

3. Be disciplined enough to implement all the edges that already exist. No one actually does this.

4. Set aside money to get actively smarter. Good process + more smart people on staff = large compounded edges over time — as long as you give them license to speak.

Fans mostly clash with teams around 1 and 2, and I doubt that will ever change. But at least we’re here to tell you when teams are being reasonably smart about it, or when they are absolutely, positively Doing Dumb Shit.

—TK

*This is partly true because some idiot built an analytics and data company that made everything in worldwide player recruitment MUCH EASIER to do than it was in 2014. A decade later, said idiot neither owns a club nor works for a football team. Absolutely useless behaviour, I tell you.

News and rumours

• In case you forgot about it, the Champions League draw takes place today at 5 pm UK, 12 noon if you’re on the east coast of the USA. Here’s how the new format works.

• Manchester United and Juventus have agreed on the structure of a loan-to-buy move for Jadon Sancho, according to Fabrice Hawkins. Earlier in the week, we talked about Juventus going nuts signing wingers.
  
  Sancho is reportedly willing to take the offer, but is stalling to see if Chelsea can sort themselves out and figure out how to fit him into their squad. Now that Man United don’t have to accept a Raheem Sterling or Ben Chilwell swap deal to offload Sancho, I’m not sure how the Blues are going to do that. As much as he’d apparently like to return home to greater London, I think Juve’s system and personnel are going to revive Sancho’s career.

• Similarly, Victor Osimhen is willing to accept a move to Al-Ahli in Saudi Arabia if he absolutely has to, but would like Chelsea to make him a suitable offer instead. I think we’ll see Osimhen in a dark blue shirt within 48 hours, and Chelsea’s PSR scramble next June is going to be hysterical.

• Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen have apparently resumed talks for Jonathan Tah. Remember when German teams would wrap up their business early in the window instead of getting into the Daniel Levy-style transfer sagas? Anyway, he’ll probably end up costing Bayern €30m, and yes he is absolutely worth ONE-THIRD OF MARC GUEHI. Sorry for yelling, but good lord, Newcastle.

• Trevoh Chalobah is another talented center back who would cost one-third of Marc Guehi, and he’s being linked to… Crystal Palace. That makes sense! He’s also linked to Stuttgart, and basically every relegation-battling Prem team. I think someone buys him tomorrow.

• Everton is in a very tough spot with Dominic Calvert-Lewin. He’s unwilling to talk extension, and a team with significant financial problems can’t really afford to let a player like him walk for free instead of selling him for a ~£20m fee. At the same time, Everton is also selling Neal Maupay to Marseille. Shipping out DCL this late in the window without a replacement lined up could make the Toffees favorites for relegation.
  
  Chelsea have been linked to him as a backup if they can’t sign Osimhen, and the boys speculated on the podcast that DCL might be a good budget option for Arsenal. Newcastle and Man United are also reportedly poking his agent for info (or his agent is chatting shit trying to get them interested). In any event: Calvert-Lewin wants to leave, Everton needs money, and a bunch of teams could use a budget rotation striker.

• Brazil international central midfielder André is making a £19m move from Fluminense to Wolves, and he’s an interesting profile. This guy is the king of midfield metronome ball-retainers.

• Arsenal is inching closer to its backup goalkeeper swap deal. The structure of the two deals will differ, but it’s basically a financially neutral move for the Gunners. Aaron Ramsdale is heading to Southampton for £18m + £7m in potential add-ons. Espanyol goalkeeper Joan Garcia has a release clause of £25m, which Arsenal is more or less willing to pay, but they’re negotiating the structure. Gonna keep it real with you, I do not have strong opinions on data for Segunda keepers who played half the season.

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