When do you refuse to sell a player running down his contract?

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Alphonso Davies does not look likely to be a Bayern Munich player for much longer. He has a year remaining on his contract, and Spanish outlet AS believes he has already decided to sign for Real Madrid. It’s just a matter of whether Bayern would like to collect a decent fee in the neighborhood of €50 million right now or let Davies walk on a free a year from now.

This isn’t an easy decision. There simply aren’t a lot of Alphonso Davies clones hanging around smaller clubs, ready to be purchased for a reasonable price. In case you’re not familiar, the Canadian is a player in the conversation for best left back in the world. He has top tier pace and makes significant positive contributions in all phases of play.

This sounds like a replay of the Kylian Mbappe situation, but there’s one key difference: Bayern Munich is ostensibly an actual business. Paris Saint-Germain is a wealthy family’s (and arguably a government’s) plaything, and would rather have a superstar on their squad for an extra year than collect a significant fee. Bayern, on the other hand, has to raise money to make further signings. They’d like to get ~€50m for a player with one year left on his contract instead of losing him for free.

Bayern’s decision is complicated by the state of their squad and short-term goals. They’re trying to rebuild without capital-R Rebuilding, because they’re Bayern Munich. Their fans and sponsors don’t accept stinking for a year to gear up for the next dynasty, they want to compete for trophies every season. They’re also trying to replace half their squad at the moment.

The best version of Bayern is probably a few years out. Jamal Musiala and Mathys Tel are big talents who make a good contribution to the team right now, but they’re probably not hitting their peaks this season. Michael Olise might need a season to settle in. A ton of young players either coming up from the B team or returning from loans are going to get their first tastes of senior football with Bayern this year. At the same time, Harry Kane is 30 and has a lengthy injury history, while Manuel Neuer and Thomas Müller are on their last legs.

And this is what makes the decision around Davies so tough. Are Bayern in win now or rebuild mode? Well… they’re kind of in both. They’re trying to repair the plane in the air while a bunch of warning lights are flashing at them. Which is why the reporting of “we’d like to keep Davies around, but if you offer a ton of money…” is so believable.

Taking €50m instead of 0 feels so obvious. And yet selling Davies means you run the risk of wasting what could be the final year of Kane’s prime, and the final year of usefulness for two of your club’s biggest legends.

The question Bayern has to ask itself: Is Davies staying with us and not going to the team that knocked us out of Champions League the difference between competing and not competing for a treble?

I’d take the money, but I understand why it’s not straightforward.

—KM

News and Rumours

• Speaking of Harry Kane, Tottenham never properly replaced him because they didn’t want to deal in a market where they had a short window to negotiate and everyone knew they had £100m lying around. Now they’re reportedly negotiating for Feyenoord striker Santiago Giménez. I’d need to watch a lot of games to feel good about an Eredivisie → Prem transfer, but oh baby those shot locations.

• Ajax striker Brian Brobbey has a similar scoring output and shot map, and he’s being linked to both Manchester United and Arsenal. Would you like to see a deep dive into a comparison of these guys? It looks like they’re both on the verge of going to the Premier League.

• Barcelona says they have the money to pay Nico Williams’ €55m release clause, but not if they’re planning on paying it. I’m not broke, please don’t put in the newspaper that I’m broke.

• Man United have upped their bid for Jarrad Branthwaite to £50m and been told to do one again. As we discussed previously, Everton probably won’t budge much from their initial valuation.

• Jaden Philogene could be on the move from Hull to Everton, though Crystal Palace have apparently not given up on him. He’s a Dribbly Boi who probably takes too many hopeful long shots, but a coach can fix that. If they want to. I don’t want to be presumptuous.

• One of the best player-flipping stories in recent memory is Georges Mikautadze, who Metz are going to get to sell twice. They sold him to Ajax for €19m, took him back on loan with an option to buy for €10m when he flopped, executed that option after he scored 13 goals in 20 games for them, and are now negotiating with basically every Europa League-tier team to sell him a second time for around €25m. Getting relegated sucks but this makes it feel better.

• Fab says Atlético Madrid are interested in Conor Gallagher, which feels like a perfect fit. Extremely high work rate central midfielder who the biggest clubs don’t think is a good enough passer for them? Diego Simeone welcomes you with open arms.