Rafael Leão is electrifying, but what's holding him back?

Today’s newsletter is a guest piece from Mohamed Mohamed (@moesquare on bsky) on Rafael Leão, the exciting and polarizing AC Milan winger. He’s one of the most exciting players in the world to watch, and he’s been linked to big money moves, but his lack of defensive work can sometimes hold him back.

Moe has writing about football in the public sphere for nearly a decade for various outlets, including The Analyst, The Athletic, and StatsBomb. As well, he’s dipped his toes into the world of YouTube with the channel Footy Insights, which looks into the present and past of the beautiful game.

Previously, Moe wrote here about tall strikers on the road to stardom, Dejan Kulusevski’s position change, Mathys Tel’s potential for Tottenham, and the rise of Carlos Baleba.

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And now… on with the Moe!

One of the biggest complaints for some with the modern game is that the creative geniuses and mavericks of yesteryear have been phased out. Those who make this argument contend this is the end result of a heightened focus on positional play and out of possession structures from today’s coaches. Whether or not this argument has merit is something that will be a continuing discussion point for years to come.

For those who yearn for the on-ball wizardry from the past, Rafael Leão is brought up as an example for what the game used to be. His creativity and ability to drive play have been a fixture of Milan matches since his move to Italy in the summer of 2019. That’s helped him become one of the best players in Serie A, and it’s driven the club’s return to prominence.

He’s 6th in total goals and assists among players in Italy from the 2019-20 season to present. The 2021-22 season saw him named the league’s Most Valuable Player as he led Milan to their first Scudetto since 2010-11. A season later, he was a major contributor to the club’s run to the Champions League semi-finals, an accomplishment not achieved since winning it all in 2007.

Clearly, that is a strong resume for someone who is completing their age 25 season, and few players are as exciting across European football. Yet, there is a question of just how good he is.

To start, no discussion of Leão’s skill-set could begin without a mention of how devastating his progressive carrying and 1v1 dribbling are. In deeper areas, he can eat up a ton of space if afforded to him. He’s able to receive in traffic, embrace physicality through using his off-arm to get inside position and bounce off opponents to get an advantage. In 1v1 situations in the final third, his first and second steps can be so electric that he leaves his marker in the dust. He can blend both his acceleration and trickery to consistently leave his marker in the dust. His output in this area speaks for itself, as he’s in the 94th percentile in Serie A for carries into the penalty area and 95th in successful take-ons among wingers and attacking midfielders according to FBref.

The compilation below shows how versatile Leão is as a solo progressor.

That dribbling gravity Leão possesses also helps with his creativity and playmaking. He can get into wide areas in the box which are prime real estate for square passes or cut-backs towards the penalty spot. Outside the box in the final third, he’s a willing crosser with both feet and shows delicate touch on attempts from shorter distances. In the middle third, he’s quite aggressive at looking to spring teammates into space with deliveries that can quicken tempo if connected on. This includes when Theo Hernández makes his customary forward runs. His substitute appearance in Milan’s comeback victory vs Lecce showed how devastating his short-range crossing can be.

Usually for this archetype of attacker who is heavily reliant on being an on-ball threat, you’d expect the shooting numbers to take a bit of a hit. It’s hard to consistently create good opportunities for yourself off the dribble. Yet, Leão’s numbers are pretty solid. He’s in the 68th percentile for non-penalty expected goals per shot and 75th percentile for average shot distance, all the while taking over 2.5 shots per 90. Part of this goes back to Serie A being a more lax out of possession environment compared to other leagues. the undeniability of his off the dribble game, and being able to generate shots quickly with minimal backlift.

If there is one massive flaw in Leão’s game, it’s what he does without the ball, especially defensively. Whether it be in high pressing situations or defending in a low block, he tends to have a low motor out of possession. Part of it is that he’s tasked with a ton of on-ball creation duties so exerting a massive amount of effort on defense is asking a lot, but there’s just a lack of intensity which can hinder Milan’s OOP structure.

That same lack of intensity can also show itself with Leão’s off-ball package in attack, particularly versus a set defense. Occasionally, he’ll sprinkle in an impactful out to in diagonal run across the grain of the fullback. Given that his positioning is relatively fluid for a winger, he is in position to attempt curling runs towards the middle when in the halfspace. However, these movements don’t happen with enough consistency. More often than not though, he just stands idle during many possession sequences in the opposition half, including moments where he could make third man runs. In crossing situations, you won’t often see him try to attack the back post or find openings. He’s better at attacking space versus high lines, including when in his own half. Those straight-line runs on the blindside of the FB in transition or semi-transition.

All of this amounts to an interesting combination of skills. Few players in the world can create something out of nothing for himself or his teammates at the rate Leão does. That is an incredibly valuable trait which can help him be resilient against stiffer competition. His playmaking package is very good, and perhaps even great. Without the ball on both ends is where Leão loses some value. You wonder if he sometimes leaves quality shots on the table because the off-ball motor runs hot and cold. That said, it’s a credit to how devastating he can be off the dribble that his shot numbers have been good to great over the years despite those worries.

To make a cross sport comparison to basketball, Leão sometimes gives off the feel of an artist who plays at his own pace, which isn’t always beneficial for the team and can lead to situations of ball stopping (think someone like Carmelo Anthony during his heyday). The second leg of their CL playoff tie vs Feyenoord was an example of this. Now, he’s so talented that despite those concerns, it works more often than not.

Perhaps one comparable in today’s game would be Kylian Mbappé, who himself might be the worst out of possession forward of the modern era. That said, he also happens to be one of the most devastating attacking talents, with an off-ball repertoire vastly superior to the Portuguese international. He can remain a vital final third threat even when the dribble game is not at full form. As good as Leão is, he’s a level or two below that vaunted stratosphere Mbappé resides in.

No one would deny that Leão is a very good player. He’s been a key catalyst for Milan’s most successful era since the early 2010s. Various media outlets have ranked him among the better players in the world, which is certainly a valid viewpoint. His coordination, explosiveness, and strength make him a nightmare to deal with on the ball. This is particularly impressive given he’s not been part of expansive in-possession systems over the years.

Part of what keeps him from being one of the absolute best in the sport is the relative lack of activity without the ball at both ends, especially in attack. Some of it is understandable, and it’s certainly possible to build a solid OOP system if he’s the worst player defensively. Utilizing his excellent athleticism to become a greater threat without the ball could be the missing piece which pushes him to become one of the best handful of attackers in the sport. For now, Rafael Leão will have to settle for being a borderline great player who doubles as one of the most exciting talents in European football.

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