Osimhen to Arsenal?

We spend most of our time on this newsletter talking about players that we think are good. Often we think they’re overpriced, or a poor system fit for the team they’re linked to, but they’re clearly talented enough to make a positive impact for someone in a top European league.

Today I’m going to get a bit mean and talk about 3 players who I don’t like. It’s nothing personal, and I’m not rooting for anyone to fail, but these guys are going for 8-figure transfer fees that I am struggling to justify.

At the same time, in all of these cases, I am wondering what I am missing. Some teams are genuinely stupid, but even the dumbest clubs in the Premier League have people working for them who know ball. I always assume it’s possible that there’s just something I don’t see. If you think that’s the case with any of these guys, get in touch.

Scott McTominay

As far as I can tell, the only skills that McTominay currently performs at an above average Premier League level are short passing and being tall. The latter skill does not help him much in the air; he wins 1.72 aerials per 90 at a 42% win rate.

Fulham have reportedly bid £20m, with Man United rejecting that offer and sticking to a £30m valuation. Can anyone explain this to me?

Are there not a dozen players in the Championship with this exact set of skills, available for half the price? And even if your scouts have made a compelling case for why McTominay is used incorrectly at United and perfect for your team, why would you open with such a high bid for a player who is currently performing poorly? I strongly dislike this for Fulham.

William Osula

Osula is big and strong, and he’s fast for a big and strong guy. He’s got the physical profile that just about any team would want in a center forward. He also had just 22 shots and 1.64 xG in 900 minutes at striker last year for Sheffield United.

Osula did not previously fare considerably better in the Championship or League One.

Newcastle are reportedly negotiating a deal to sign Osula for £10m + £5m in add-ons. If those numbers are flipped, we might be approaching the realm of something reasonable. This is a lottery ticket. £10m is too much for a lottery ticket. Especially for a team that was just forced to sell Yankuba Minteh at a discount to comply with PSR. Spend less money on candles.

Pedro Neto

Full disclosure for anyone who’s unaware, I’m a Tottenham fan. (Yes, this newsletter is co-written by Arsenal and Tottenham supporters, we’ve managed to keep things civil so far.)

Spurs have repeatedly been linked this window to Wolves winger Pedro Neto, who, in addition to having hamstrings that are made of glass, is not that productive.

Neto is just an OK dribbler for a winger, doesn’t get a lot of shots, and is extremely poor defensively. His 9 assists came from 3.27 xG assisted. Transfermarkt estimates his value at £55m, and Wolves should laugh all the way to the bank if they get half that.

—KM

Rumors and News

• We spend a lot of time cutting through the chaff in the rumor mill so that you don’t have to. Think of us as your meat shield for transfer madness. That’s not to say that some of you aren’t masochists that insist on reading every journo and aggregator account you can find during the summer. You go right ahead. We’re not judging you, but we are here for you when you need to enter rehab and choose a healthier mental lifestyle.
  
  Anyway… our service to you is why you did not see us aggressively linking Victor Osimhen to Arsenal. Which, in our opinion was nothing more than someone hoping to leverage a move for him and doing transfer math around an outgoing Eddie Nketiah. Because, you know, there would totally be room for a Jesus/Havertz/Osimhen trio at striker? Anyway, we’re ignoring that while explaining why we’re ignoring it, but also using it to generate cynical opens to our free newsletter.

• For those who missed recent posts, we’re pretty locked in on Nico Williams staying at Athletic Bilbao. This reminds me that I wanted to host a nerdz/StatsBomb style conference during an international window in Bilbao in Nov/Feb-Apr because I ALSO love that place. Lemme know if anyone is reading this in/around Bilbao and has venue ideas.

• Eddie Nketiah to Marseille is getting the whiff of inevitability about it.

• Sky Germany are reporting both Chelsea and Aston Villa have submitted offers for Maxi Beier. We covered him a bit earlier in the summer, reaching a brief verdict of “promising, but needs a year in the weight room to compete in the Premier League.”

• In Leeds rumours, reports from Turkey suggest they might be in for former Rangers player Ryan Kent. Kent is 27, so this feels like a bit of a plausibility stretch. However, if you squint your eyes, tilt your head, and view it from “I am an agent and my English lad wants to come back to the UK/won’t play under Mourinho” and “Leeds need to replace Summerville” angles, it sort of makes sense?

• In what may be the vaguest “rumour” of the summer, Football Insider suggest Liverpool will try to sign a defensive midfielder before the window closes. The content mines, they be harsh.

• Pascal Gross has been confirmed as a Borussia Dortmund player. Way back in 2015 he was the single biggest target for Brentford if they were promoted to the Premier League due to his insane ability to create chances for teammates in both set pieces and open play. I didn’t think he’d end up playing for Dortmund some day, but he turned out to be a fantastic budget Premier League player.

• David Ornstein has reported that Newcastle is the first team to make a formal approach to sign Marc Guehi from Crystal Palace. There’s been no reported fee yet, but Guehi is: good.

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