Ollie Watkins, and when low-percentage shots are good

There used to be a common xG argument on Football Twitter that I’m very thankful we’ve mostly gotten over. It goes like this:

Person A shares xG value of a goal, showing that it was a low percentage shot. Person B gets mad at them for implying that the shot shouldn’t have been taken. Person A says they were implying no such thing, Person B yells about nerds ruining the game they love, on and on.

Here’s Ollie Watkins’ winner for England vs. the Netherlands. 0.05 xG.

I don’t think this implies that Watkins was lucky, or that he shouldn’t have taken the shot.

Deciding whether or not a 0.05 xG shot is a good, bad, or OK decision depends on a bunch of factors, none of them being “did the shot go in.” A shot having an xG value of 0.05 probably tells you that the prospective shooter should look to see if they have a good passing option before taking it, and that you should not design your tactics around trying to get that type of shot specifically, but not that taking it is inherently incorrect.

In the case of Watkins’ winner, there wasn’t a better decision to make. One of his passing options was surrounded. Two others weren’t getting to the box within the next second. His chances of successfully holding up the ball and executing a perfect pass to Jude Bellingham or Luke Shaw were probably much lower than scoring himself.

So Watkins turns and shoots. At a narrow angle, with a defender in front of him and the goalkeeper reasonably positioned, he has a 5% chance of scoring. He has to execute the timing and placement of his shot perfectly, and he does.

Watkins has consistently, for 7 years now, done stuff like this at Championship or higher level. He did it in League Two and the Conference South too. He does it whether he’s playing on the wing, underneath a classic striker, or up front as the 9 himself. In both direct and possession-based teams, in 1 or 2 striker systems, in front of a back 3 or 4. It’s outstanding enough to score 10-plus goals a year every single year without usually being a team’s primary shooter, but his adaptability is even more impressive.

It was a great goal by a great player, and I enjoyed it a lot.

—KM

Rumours and News

• Liverpool might have to do a surprise striker search after Darwin ran into the stands and punched some fans, and maybe a cop. [Source: Kim watched him go into the stands and punch fans on TV.] Copa America really IS different. This kind of thing occasionally results in FIFA issuing some kind of all-competitions ban.

• Xavi Simons, he of the thunderbastard in a Euros 2024 semi-final last night against England, was a name on the rumour mill earlier this summer, but that went quiet while the Netherlands marched on. Expect the noise to pick up next week, and we’ll even drop in an extended analysis to help shape your opinions.

• Romano reports Dani Olmo has a release clause worth €60M that expires July 20th. “Several clubs interested.” 🍿 

• Bayern Munich has now officially signed Joao Palhinha and the quoted price is €50M. Which is still rather a lot, but not as much as was quoted previously in the filthy English pigdog media.

• We have a Luton rumour. I repeat, we have a LUTON RUMOUR in the BBC. They (Luton, not the BBC) are allegedly interested 19-year-old Mechelen midfielder Ngal'ayel Mukau, who does appear to do midfielder type things in the Belgian league.

• Manchester United are considering a surprise move for Chelsea’s Ben Chilwell. One English left back that is never fully healthy isn’t cool. But two… two just might be.

• Beerschot are set to sign Scottish midfielder from Hibs and an English winger from Stoke?!? Are we sure the rumour machine isn’t broken today? There’s a little confused. There’s a lot confused. And then there is whatever I am after reading that last item, which appeared in Nieuwsblad.

• Speaking of… Spurs are allegedly looking at a swap deal with Aston Villa for Giovani Lo Celso. His might be the most confusing midfielder career vs talent AND outputs that we can remember. This was alllll the way back in… checks notes last season.