Nicolas Jackson could use some help

Hello friends, and welcome to the regular Friday grab bag. It’s 6 °F/-14 °C where I live, so I am probably just going to stay inside and watch football all weekend. The good news is that the schedule is absolutely loaded with great games. The marquee one is probably Chelsea-Man City, so let’s talk a bit about the Blues.

—KM

Chelsea’s title chase has been halted by a poor holiday period run, and they’re now very much content to win a tight top 4 battle to secure Champions League football for next season. A very noticeable factor in Chelsea’s recent drop in form has been that it’s coincided with some struggles from their main striker.

Nicolas Jackson got off to a hot start this year, but his finishing has been poor in recent weeks. He’s scored just 2 goals from 4.78 xG since December 1, and he’s now underperforming his xG on the season as a whole.

This run has led for renewed cries for Chelsea to pursue one of the big name strikers reportedly ready for a Premier League move — the likes of Victor Osimhen, Viktor Gyökeres and Benjamin Šeško. And sure, those players are likely to improve Chelsea, but the performances of the players around Jackson are the bigger issue for me.

Cole Palmer is obviously exempted from this; he’s the best player in the league not named Mohamed Salah. Same goes for Nono Madueke, who’s had a solid campaign and solid recent performances, with 4.15 xG+xA since December 1, and 5 goals+assists in that time period.

But Jadon Sancho’s production has dropped off in recent weeks, with 2.28 xG+xA and 3 G+A in that same time period. Pedro Neto has been genuinely horrific, with 0.78 xG+xA and 0 goal contributions in over 500 minutes since December 1. João Félix and Christopher Nkunku (4.5 xG+xA, 2 G+A combined) have been considerably less garbage in limited minutes, but certainly not good enough to make a case for getting back into their manager’s plans.

It’s reasonable to pick out Jackson as a key man for the Man City match and point out that his team is unlikely to win if he misses big chances. If he keeps underperforming his xG at his December-January clip, he’ll be replaced in the summer. But Chelsea’s bigger problem is that one of their attacking players has been genuinely poor in most matches. One of Sancho, Neto, Felix or Nkunku needs to be something other than a black hole.

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Games we’re watching

Manchester City vs. Chelsea — Obviously. Two rich but struggling and inconsistent teams in a scrap for top 4.

Atlético Madrid vs. Villarreal — If anyone can get Atléti out of their shape and force them to play football, it’s the Yellow Submarine.

RB Leipzig vs. Bayer Leverkusen — RBL’s on a bit of a bad run and fading in the top 4 race, but still just one point out of it. Leverkusen are fun to watch every week regardless of opponent.

Napoli vs. Juventus — Technically a very important game between two huge clubs with scudetto implications, I can’t not put it here. But high probability of a 0-0.

Nice vs. Marseille — Marseille is the weirdest mishmash squad, but hey, they’re in 2nd place on a +19 GD.

Stuff we’re reading

Nick Harris at Sporting Intelligence on Man City using Haaland’s new contract as a bit of PR narrative control.

Ryan O’Hanlon and Bill Connelly at ESPN rank the Premier League clubs, and honestly they’ve been too nice to Man United and Tottenham.

Billy Carpenter at Edu’s BBQ broke down a million different thoughts on Arsenal’s season. Warning: very long.

Josh Williams at Distance Covered is Trusting The Process that led to a 37 shot game for Liverpool.

Jeff Reuter at The Athletic thinks Tyler Adams is going to be a key player for the United States now that he’s back in great form for Bournemouth.

Jack Chippendale at Total Football Analysis details the changes Barcelona made that led to their incredible Champions League comeback.

Jake Entwistle at Scouted has a look at up-and-coming progressive passers.

Jessy Parker Humphreys and Max Radwan at The Cutback preview this weekend’s big WSL match between Chelsea and Arsenal. I’ve linked 5 consecutive articles by people with first names that start with J.

Grace Robertson at Grace On Football has a lava hot but ultimately correct take: Neymar was mid.

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