Newcastle went and got really good

Newcastle United are not only up to 3rd in the Premier League table, but they’ve got the 3rd best goal differential too. Given that their massive uptick in form happened around the same time as their EFL Cup win, I kind of bought into the conventional punditry that a trophy gave the club a huge emotional boost, but I actually don’t think it’s true after looking into the numbers a bit more.

Even though it took some time for the consistently great results to roll in, Newcastle have been one of the best teams in the league since January. and their recent results have been more about final third execution and grinding out close games than outright dominance.

They actually had less xG than Crystal Palace in their 5-0 win midweek, though there were some major game state effects there given Newcastle’s massive first half lead.

Alexander Isak is the Newcastle player who’s gotten the most attention during this excellent run of form, but the players supplying his goals deserve equal praise. We mentioned Jacob Murphy’s surprising playmaking output a couple months ago, and he’s only gotten better since then. If Mohamed Salah didn’t exist, he’d be in Best XI contention.

This is such a sick key passes map. Obviously this is made possible by Isak’s outstanding movement, physicality, and finishing, but Murphy’s still got to put the ball in the right spot and he’s doing it over and over again.

On the other wing, you might be surprised to learn that Harvey Barnes is actually outperforming the much more highly regarded Anthony Gordon. Unsurprisingly Barnes has spent most of the season coming off the bench, but he’s started in recent games and his production is crazy. Shoutout to the reader who sent Ted a DM to point this out.

This weekend, Newcastle face the similarly hot Aston Villa in a Champions League place 6-pointer. Ted’s taking Villa in a pick ‘em at home, but doesn’t feel great about it. I wouldn’t either! Betting actual money against Newcastle at the moment would put a pit in my stomach.

If you haven’t seen it yet, check out the Man Down Podcast, Ted and Patrick’s other show on men’s health and relationships. On this week’s episode, they explore the concept of fear casting, a technique for overcoming anxiety and overthinking by defining worst-case scenarios and analyzing potential outcomes.

Games we’re watching

Newcastle vs. Aston Villa — God, this is going to be a banger, isn’t it? Every remaining Premier League top 5 battle is. What a blessing.

Monaco vs. Strasbourg — Hey, did you guys know BlueCo’s other team is kinda killing it and fighting for a European place? They’re facing a Monaco team coming off a whooping of Marseille last weekend.

Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao — The Super Williams Bros have a chance to cement their own Champions League place and end Real Madrid’s title hopes.

AC Milan vs. Atalanta — Milan are in 9th with a +14 GD. Lmao, lol. Pain.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach — Probably a top 4 eliminator if this game produces a decisive result… and pretty close to one if it’s a draw. A near must-win for both of the local rivals.

Stuff we’re reading

Ryan Benson at Opta Analyst digs into which Premier League teams are making the most of set pieces.

David Astill at Total Football Analysis breaks down the impact Anthony Elanga is making for Nottingham Forest.

Kieron O’Connor at Swiss Ramble looked into the last 10 years of finances in the Championship.

Graham Ruthven at The Guardian has a reminder about how important prize money is in the Premier League and how it works.

Ryan O’Hanlon at ESPN trolls his readers by looking into the tiny handful of simulations where Liverpool blow the Premier League title to Arsenal.

Jason Anderson at Pro Soccer Wire wrote his usual NWSL Take-Off column on Chicago and Gotham’s big wins last week.

Pablo Maurer at The Athletic investigated a minor league soccer club in Virginia going through ownership and facility troubles and the toll it’s taking on the squad.

Dave Proudlove at Football Heritage has a history of the Estadio Azteca in Mexico, from the 1968 Olympics and 1970 World Cup, to modern day.

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