Musiala to pull an Mbappe and head to Manchester?

We’re still finding our feet with regard to in-season content. I was faced with a dilemma of whether to continue breaking down the Champions League like Kim did yesterday, or to branch off into other topics and couldn’t really decide. So… it sounds like it’s time for a poll!

Poking around the gossip columns is sad business lately. The excitement is gone, there’s trash everywhere, and columnists have been forced to reach ever further afield to feed the endless content monsters.

What’s clear right now is that everyone has decided Real Madrid is the transfer boogeyman.

They are allegedly ready to bring World’s Best Midfielder Rodri home to Spain, where he belongs. (Obviously.) And they are directly encouraging Trent Alexander-Arnold to jump ship from Liverpool, having previously been successful in convincing Mbappe and Fonzie Davies to run down their contracts and move to the Spanish capital. (Davies should be considered “in transit.”) They are even rumoured to be ready to poach Big Bill Saliba away from North London, though one wonders if that is simply because Real Madrid is one of the few places believable for turning El Grande William’s head.

Maybe most interesting right now is Bayern Munich’s struggles to lock down Musiala for the long term. The 21-year-old attacking midfielder has a deal that expires in 2026, and everyone is aware of how good he is. Normally this is a doddle for Bayern, as most German players are typically content to play for the German giants on very good wages.

The complicating factor here is Musiala spent the bulk of his youth in the Chelsea academy, and everyone in England — but especially Manchester City and Arsenal — are aware of exactly how good he is.

Maybe Germans are content to play in a competition where they win nine out of every ten titles in a row at Bayern or whatever the norm is. (And Munich really is lovely.) But who wouldn’t want to move to Manchester and uh… do exactly the same, at least until Pep leaves the building? Or until Manchester United become competent again. Or until Liverpool bring in Jay-Z money alongside King James, to propel the budget a little further beyond breaking even into “competes for league titles again” territory?

Musiala isn’t the average Bayern Munich academy grad, he’s a kid who probably spent his formative years believing the Premier League is the best league in the world.

Actually, all of the above is likely total nonsense, but see how easy it is to take vague speculation and turn it into a “story”?

But the more interesting kernel is that the young players that everyone has been obsessing about the last couple of transfer windows now know their value, as do their agents. Musiala can see that TransferMarkt thinks he’s worth €130m on the uh… transfer market. He can also see what Mbappe did in pocketing his entire potential fee as a bonus in his move to Real Madrid, and the very best players definitely want to capture as much of that bag as they can.

The sticky point in the football industry is something that isn’t talked about that much, but kind of needs to be discussed in order to understand the economics. Because players are labour and labour is often at the forefront of suffering in most industries, there’s this assumption that players should be paid the maximum they can earn on the open market, whenever possible. That’s true as individuals, and you will see us root for players to get whatever they are worth, while also chastising some teams for paying them more they should.

The problem here is that AS AN INDUSTRY players are probably paid too much, especially outside of the top leagues. When the wages to turnover ratio across most of the English pyramid is over 1 — meaning teams spend the entirety of their income on player and coach wages, without adding in all the other costs that are needed to run a football team — player wages constitute too much of a total sustainable pie.

The result of a fundamental desire to compete is owners and fans want the best players and coaches they can get, spending beyond the means of their total revenue. Owners then fund everything else it takes to run a club, and potentially saddle the clubs with debt in the process. This in turn puts the clubs, which are really historic entertainment and cultural institutions, in jeopardy of going out of business should the sugar daddy flow turn off, something no one ever wants to see happen.

The reasons for the fragility is because (most) fans don’t actually care about economics, they care about competing and winning titles, and want their football team to produce things that make them feel. Like new transfers! Which we then use to produce content. Picture Rafiki holding up a shiny transfer baby, and then us doing running commentary on Simba’s fitness for purpose, and you’ll understand the TTF circle of life. Owners are fuelled by fan emotion to push onward, spend a little more, and hope for the best. But there are limits to even the richest of rich people’s largesse. When those limits are reached and no potential buyers can be found, POOF… you get Everton. Or worse.

The problem is football is a closed system and there really is just so much money to go around. TV revenues have likely topped out in the men’s game. Ticket prices and concessions have largely been “optimised.” [Translation: we are now bilking fans for the maximum amount they will allow without revolt.] There are very few new owners ready to plonk money into most smaller clubs because the economics make zero sense as a business, they are only for rich people who want to create their own play toys/vibe machines.

And Ryan Reynolds.

The whole “players running down their contracts to capture more of their value,” is probably great for the best players. Maybe it works for the top quartile? Middle tier players… eh? Lower half of the population players should view this as a bad idea, because it takes money from them and reallocates it up the chain.

I have an econ background and decades of experience in practical applied economics across various ecosystems, and from the outside, I’m still not 100% sure how this shakes out for winners and losers. But it’s coming.

The Musialas and Alexander-Arnolds of the world will benefit from their leverage. But because it’s zero sum, and there’s only so much money to go around, it’s unclear who will suffer on the other side.

—TK

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