How Man City should line up against Real Madrid

Kevin De Bruyne’s time as the centerpiece of a Champions League contender has clearly passed. He still has the quality to deliver a moment of brilliance, and will likely still produce a few great highlights in a Manchester City shirt, but last week’s match against Real Madrid made him look elderly.

Pep Guardiola will almost certainly opt for someone with more mobility to start the second leg on Wednesday, when his team needs to win away at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. But who will — or should — take up the No. 10 role isn’t exactly clear.

With Jack Grealish injured and Jérémy Doku seemingly out of favor, it looks likely that Omar Marmoush and Phil Foden will start the match together. Guardiola has shifted them around depending on matchups, with Marmoush playing both left and central attacking midfield, while Foden has played all three positions in the 4-2-3-1 that Guardiola has favored since Rodri’s injury.

In my head, Marmoush is the more athletic and direct goal threat, while Foden is the better passer of the two. In an early small sample of Marmoush’s performances for City — alongside Foden’s numbers since January 1 — that doesn’t appear to be the case. Foden’s getting a lot of high xG chances, and Marmoush has been the more valuable passer. Neither is racking up the xA though, which is a bit alarming when playing behind Erling Haaland.

Foden and Marmoush are both undeniably top quality players, but neither offers the kind of attacking movement you’d expect from a right-footed left winger in a team that’s spending a lot of time with the ball around the opposition’s penalty area. Neither has shown the ability to get good shots off from the left side of the box.

And Foden’s key passes map is a similar story. It’s equal parts surprising and alarming that neither player has any key passes originating from the left half-space and ending up somewhere more central in the box. It’s kind of a massive part of the pitch — both in size and importance — to have almost no scoring or assisting threat.

Grealish, for all his faults and inconsistency, absolutely lives in this zone. By contrast, almost all of his shots and key passes come from the left half-space area that Foden and Marmoush have been offering no threat from. This forces central defenders and defensive midfielders to make tough decisions about whether they need to vacate their position and close down the winger who’s cutting inside, opening up space for other attacking players.

Generating a consistent attacking threat in this area is made more difficult by Carlo Ancelotti making an important change at right back for Real Madrid. Veteran winger Lucas Vázquez has been filling in since Dani Carvajal suffered a knee injury, but he’s recently been replaced by usual central midfielder Federico Valverde.

This radar comparison needs some context. It’s definitely skewed by Valverde playing most of his games in the center of the park, and only recently logging minutes at RB. But I think it’s a fairly accurate representation of the players’ skillsets, and why Ancelotti has made the move. Vázquez is the better dribbler and gets into good positions to cross, but Valverde is the better passer and one-v-one defender.

Valverde’s tendency to sit narrower in possession also changes his starting position in transition defense, which might cause him problems against a very quick left-footed left winger, but serves him well in most situations.

Man City’s second half meltdown against Arsenal on February 2 might have scared Guardiola off the idea of playing Savinho on the left, but I think it’s his best option for this match. At the same time, Foden looked uncomfortable on the right in that Arsenal game, and Marmoush was at his best for Frankfurt as a right-leaning striker in a front two. Between the personnel he has available and the opponent he’s facing, a setup of Savinho on the left, Foden through the center and Marmoush on the right is probably the best solution for the problems Guardiola is facing.

Of course, because I have spent a couple hours researching and writing this, Guardiola will instead opt for a W-M with Foden as one of the halfbacks. —KM

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