How good can Mathys Tel get for Tottenham?

Today’s newsletter is a guest piece from Mohamed Mohamed (@moesquare on bsky) on Mathys Tel, who recently moved to Tottenham Hotspur on loan with an option to buy for €55m.

Moe has writing about football in the public sphere for nearly a decade for various outlets, including The Analyst, The Athletic, and StatsBomb. As well, he’s dipped his toes into the world of YouTube with the channel Footy Insights, which looks into the present and past of the beautiful game.

Previously, Moe wrote here about tall strikers on the road to stardom and Dejan Kulusevski’s position change.

Mathys Tel has been well known in French football and youth scouting circles over the years as a high-end prospect. He remains the youngest player to ever appear in a senior match for Stade Rennais, eclipsing Eduardo Camavinga’s previous record. His three goals in the UEFA Under-17 Euro 2022 helped France win the tournament, a stacked squad as several players have become regular contributors for prominent clubs in Europe. Despite barely featuring for Rennes’ senior squad, Bayern Munich saw enough and acquired him for just under €30m.

Tel’s time with the German superclub has been one of tantalizing teases as a result of a lack of game time, since Bayern having an absurd amount of very good to great attacking talents at their disposal. In just over 2.5 seasons in Germany, he’s played less than 2000 league minutes, with the majority of his time coming off the bench. The lack of a sample size has not helped with figuring out what Tel’s true position is.

Perhaps the biggest area which will help answer this positional question is with what Tel can do off the dribble. There’s such an importance to this in today’s game for wingers, particularly higher up the pitch. The dribbling and progressive carrying aspect to his game is a bit of a mixed bag, despite his numbers being solid overall. In the final third, he constantly looks to cut inside rather than utilize a variety of angles to attack. His first step is good enough to allow him access into the half space and even beyond, albeit the predictable nature does make it easier for defenders to shade him a certain direction.

There can be a lack of finesse to Tel’s dribbling in these situations, including in situations when he’s dealing with a 1v2. He’ll occasionally barge into defenders in something of a clumsy manner, including when he himself tries to initiate contact to get the advantage going towards the byline. He shows some bright moments when carrying from deeper areas, but it’s not much of a value add at this stage. The same can be said for his ability to spin off defenders when playing with his back to goal in central areas.

As a playmaker, Tel is decent at mapping the pitch for options but it’s more the execution which can be erratic. An example of this would be his switches of play, as he’ll sometimes under hit them by a decent margin. Here and there, he’ll uncork a nice pass towards the wide zone of the box that can grease the wheels and potentially lead to secondary assists.

The repertoire of passes Tel uses isn’t at an advanced level compared to other attacking talents around his age. He’s constantly looking to try and create quick one-twos to get into the box against a set defense, with the success being more hit or miss.

There is intrigue with Tel’s crossing, even though he does it sparingly in terms of volume. He’s shown willingness to attempt with either foot and has some comfort with the variety of techniques he uses. A good example of Tel’s crossing was the assist he had in Bayern’s 5-0 victory over Hoffenheim from a couple of weeks ago when he expertly hit Leroy Sané at the back post.

In terms of movement, Tel shows some bright moments but is a work in progress, which makes sense given his age and lack of minutes played. When situated on the left flank, he’ll try to sprinkle in some diagonal runs against the blindside of wide defenders. He could be more aggressive at attempting those straight-line runs within the channel to set up potential cut-back or square passes which could juice his creative output.

In the very small number of mins he’s played leading the line, he was keen to try and drag central defenders out of position by dropping into pockets of space and it did lead to some bright moments. When trying to stay on the last line, he will sprinkle in some channel runs. The box movement is rather basic, although he at least shows some activity for trying to attack the far post. An issue with Tel off the ball is the lack of assertiveness with some of his runs, including in situations where he could make third-man movements into space and create dangerous opportunities.

One can look at Tel’s current skill-set and see the rough outline of a high impact player in the future, but it would be fair to classify him right now as a project. While perhaps not possessing elite burst and speed at the moment, it’s certainly above average. He’ll need to get stronger as he gets older, but that is a physical feature which tends to improve over time for most players. The physical maturation could help with improving his dribbling impact, with frantic being a decent descriptor of how he currently operates when trying to get an advantage on his marker. Becoming stronger could help with him being able to absorb contact, including when trying to attack the byline in the final third.

Tel might have some room for growth as a playmaker, but It’s possible that he ends up being a tertiary or even quaternary creator for a really good attacking unit. The off-ball stuff shows a bit of promise, and some of it can get better with more game time under his belt, but there’s also a “you either got it or don’t” aspect to off-ball movement. Making assertions about a player’s shooting ability isn’t the wisest thing to do when there’s less than a 100 shots to examine, but I do wonder how his tendency for generating considerable power on minimal backlift will fare vs. expected goal models as he accumulates more attempts.

One shouldn’t normally use player compilations as a form of analysis, but you can see the power he gets on some of his shots:

Some might be surprised at the idea of Tel being such a project given the hype around him, and his numbers in limited minutes being very good, especially given his age. 18 goals and assists in less than 2000 league minutes is a great return, with his underlying production being upper tier among attacking talents. FBref had him in the 72nd percentile among wingers and attacking midfielders for non-penalty expected goals and assists in the Bundesliga during the 2023-24 season. He also had a very high volume of shots and touches in the box per 90 minutes, though you’d expect this from any decent player on Bayern Munich.

The hesitancy stems from a few things:

1. He plays for the most talented team in the league, so his numbers could fall off (at least initially) elsewhere, in part because he’d likely be tasked with a greater usage alongside less talented teammates.

2. As said before, he’s played very little senior football to this point.

3. It’s become common knowledge that substitute effects are real for inflating a player’s production, and we’re beginning to untangle just how it works. In Tel’s case, he’s started 9 league matches for Bayern, and came off the bench 51 times.

That’s more of the skeptical viewpoint. For those trying to make a glass half full argument, we have recent examples of other heralded young talents at superclubs who for one reason or another had their pathways blocked yet went on to perform well not too long afterwards. An example of this was Memphis Depay at Manchester United, albeit he was nearly 3 years older than Tel currently is. His sparkling production in the Eredivisie didn’t translate to English football in year 1 as a United player, and he was sold to Lyon halfway through his second season for £9m less than it cost to acquire him. From there, Memphis became one of the better players in Europe for most of his time in France, adapting his game to become a central playmaking hub.

There are other instances of this occurring. Álvaro Morata was a statistical darling in the limited sample size we had of him during his early years with Real Madrid. Although he didn’t quite turn out to be the star that those numbers suggested he could be, he still carved out a solid career for a host of clubs as a dependable striker who could regularly produce 15-20 goals and assists throughout a league season. Paris Saint-Germain have been guilty of selling talented prospects too early previously with the likes of Moussa Diaby and Christopher Nkunku, and possibly once again with Hugo Ekitike as he’s become a force in German football, just like the other two were. 

Of course, betting on young players in these circumstances doesn’t always pan out. Kelechi Iheanacho was in a similar position to Morata with Manchester City, having incredible per 90 production as primarily a substitute in limited minutes. Leicester City bet big on him and while Iheanacho did average 0.65 non-penalty goals and assists per 90 during his time with the Foxes, he never became a consistent starter for them. It’s also fair to argue that none of these guys became a S-tier level of star (still tbd with Ekitike). Although Memphis and Nkunku got close, they were still a level or two below the absolute best of the best. That said, most of these clubs (Lyon, RB Leipzig, Leverkusen) were still very happy with the value they got on those transfer deals. 

As it stands, Tottenham Hotspur have acquired Tel on loan with reporting indicating there is an option to buy at €55m. This is a change from earlier reports that had them and Bayern initially agreeing on a €60m permanent transfer, which would’ve been a gamble. The option, rather than obligation, to buy structure does protect Spurs from the worst case scenarios. €55m is still a high enough number that he’d have to show some signs he can develop into a high-end starter (or better) under their watch over the next few months. If that happens though, the deal becomes quite favorable for them.

Tel is good enough to soak up some minutes right away at an okay level given Tottenham’s injury crisis, but it would be a bit surprising if he performed like an above average Premier League attacking talent from the start, especially in a wide forward role rather than inside or as a 9.  

Mathys Tel is the type of prospect who’ll need to be nurtured to help unlock the higher ceiling outcomes to his game. Despite the impressive goals and assists return, the process behind it has been more of a mixed bag. A big question his future club will have to ask themselves is whether his pathway to stardom is more likely as a flexible center-forward leading the line, or a hybrid on/off-ball inside forward. As of now, I think it might be the latter, but it’s certainly not a guarantee.

Can Tel become a star in the not too distant future? It’s possible if situated in the right environment, but there will be some growing pains. Because of that and other factors, he’s currently one of the more fascinating prospects in European football right now.

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