Hey Chelsea, you guys OK over there?

Your Premier League weekend roundup.

Author

Ted Knutson
March 17, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

1.70 xG to 1.66. Remember when City matches were basically guaranteed to be bores because they always seemed to have control of every match, especially after scoring? This season, their matches are probably the most fun to watch in the league. You get consistent haymakers from both sides against everyone in the top 12.

Football changes, even when the people involved actively want it to stay the same!

City took the lead twice in this one and lost it twice as well, with both goals for Brighton coming from set pieces. Estupinan’s free kick was absolutely unsaveable, and Marmoush’s goal is worth your time as well.

It’s worth noting that Marmoush has 4 goals already, but only 1 xG. City are just kinda, sorta that weird right now. Long may it continue!

Arsenal got the win courtesy of an absurd header from Mikel Merino. The corners are back, Arsenal are going to win the Champions League!

Back on planet Earth, this match transpired exactly as expected. Both teams fought for control of the ball and the centre of the pitch, and created little of note. Neither team cracked 1 xG in attack.

One thing that is noticeably absent these days are Chelsea fans complaining to either this highly-esteemed newsletter or “mandatory listening” podcast that we’re being too harsh on either their summer recruitment or on Maresca’s performance as a head coach. The summer was dire and overpriced new recruits helped them almost not at all for this season. And the questions we’ve been stating on the podcast about Maresca since the autumn are ones pretty much all sensible Chelsea fans are asking now.

They aren’t unanswerable and he’s not actively bad… but there are lots of questions that should be asked.

I had one Premier League owner tell me earlier this season that people willing to ask questions of “football experts” even in the face of derision and criticism are some of the most valuable members of their organisation.

Or outside of it!

“How could Forest score FOUR and Chris Wood not have a goal?” That was my son on Saturday evening, lamenting the status of his fantasy team.

Milenkovic got the first goal with his foot (oo, changeup!) on the second phase of a corner. Elanga picked up the second on a break off a tight angle shot. Elanga also got the third off an absurdly easy pure route one ball, and Jota Silva got the fourth on another break while Ipswich were chasing the game and exhausted.

Ipswich had two goals from nice finishes as well. In fact, there were six goals in this match off 1.53 xG.

Sometimes it be like that.

“I actually think this is a little high on Bournemouth. Brentford’s performances this year have been better, especially away, and I don’t think they are quite as poor as this line suggests. That said, the Bournemouth numbers have been pushed down by injuries too, so maybe it all evens out.”

Update: It did not all even out. At some point this year (but maybe not this season), I am going to have to trust my non-math/model reads in the Variance Betting analysis a little more and put my money where my pen is. (It’s fine — I finished +1 this weekend.)

For those who just care about the fitba, I have one thing to say: LONG THROW WINNER!!!!1!11!

(I have other things to say too, like how I love how Brentford attack but kind of hate how they defend — it’s too stressful. But that’s a topic for another day, especially given we’ve just entered the international break and there’s space to be filled.)

I follow too many Spurs fans on social media, and they are the most anxious fanbase in the world. Which also means that I can never trust their takes on a match while it’s going on, because they are the world’s MOST fucking unreliable narrators.

Anyway, somehow Spurs lost 2-0, but edged this on expected goals. According to StatsBomb, Spurs come away with at least a point in this 68% of the time. The sequence that leads to the first Fulham goal from Muniz is just a dumb player mistake. Why is Odobert dribbling into a three-man midfield trap? When he loses the ball, he is both out of position defensively and Fulham get the pressure-regain break. Dumb dumb. Then Spurs fail to get a defensive clearance and Muniz puts a slow grass-cutter into the corner.

The second goal is arguably worse, as Ryan Sessegnon wins a 1v1 on a route one ball, the other defenders ball watch, and Sess pings a great shot into the corner to make it 2-0.

Even smart Spurs fans sound fed up at this point, but Levy isn’t firing Ange before the end of the season, and so he’ll get a run of matches with a finally healthy squad to see what happens. There was a point where smart Arsenal fans were fed up with Arteta too, and then he had a run where everything came together and look where they are now.

I actually think Spurs fans should be stoked for post-break football — it will be the first time in five months their good players get to play together.

Allegedly Everton win this about 53% of the time. I put money on the home side at -.25 (meaning I lose half my bet if they draw), knowing this one was certain to draw.

Soucek got the West Ham goal from prime position, and Everton’s equalizer came from a header off the giant noggin of Jake O’Brien.

I still think Everton need about a billion pieces in the summer to return to midtable normality, but they do have interesting players at the back and in some attacking positions (Ndiaye, Lindstrom) to build around.

Look, there are neither Wolves fans nor Southampton fans who read this newsletter, so this is mostly here for completeness.

Strand Larsen scored two goals — his first since December — one a header, the other a fairly innocuous long-range shot that snuck into the corner.

Southampton won the xG battle, but there were pretty big score effects involved and PAUL! Onuachu pulled one back off a Dibling shot that hit the post in the 75th, which was the last shot for either team. I guess they knocked off early so everyone could catch their flights to spring break or something.

—TK

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