Is Gallagher worth €40m?

It’s been almost a month since a Conor Gallagher move to Atlético Madrid was first rumoured and mentioned in this newsletter. It seemed like such a perfect spiritual fit that we were excited to talk about it even before there was any kind of legit sourcing. Some things just make sense.

Over the weekend, Gallagher reportedly agreed to join Atléti after Chelsea accepted a €40m bid, and it looks like the England midfielder is headed to Spain. Now that this is a thing that’s actually happening, I thought I’d get into whether this is actually a great tactical fit, not just a spiritual one.

As Ted and Patrick mentioned on the podcast last week, Atléti have the difficult task of maintaining their ultra-defensive, difficult to break down system and identity in the biggest games while playing more expansive football against teams they’re more talented than. Last season wasn’t their best under Diego Simeone — they finished 4th in La Liga — but they were still very much the Atléti you know and love. They were solid defensively, and did it with a lot more sitting in shape than high pressing for a team with their budget.

Simeone’s always been flexible with his team shape, adjusting to the strengths and weaknesses of his own squad, as well as larger tactical trends. Last season, his side utilized a 3-5-2 more frequently than any other system, and I think their defensive activity map tells an interesting story.

The lower activity sections on the wings are pretty clearly the result of a tactical choice. Teams playing 3-5-2 are usually pretty happy to let opposing fullbacks have the ball in deeper areas of the pitch. But I think the lower activity section in the center is a little more about a lack of ball-pressuring and winning capability from guys who played in that area of the pitch than it is about a tactical choice.

Atléti has experienced a bit of a revolving door in midfield. Geoffrey Kondogbia departed last year after a fairly injury-riddled spell at the club, and wasn’t directly replaced. Axel Witsel, formerly an all-action central midfielder, has been converted to center back. Saúl Ñíguez has clearly declined, and has been loaned to Sevilla. Pablo Barrios is a talented young player, but a more attack-minded one than the previously mentioned players. Simeone’s given his wingbacks run-outs in that role too, but they haven’t worked out.

Koké, formerly Atléti’s superstar do-everything 8, has shifted into a holding role as he’s aged. Rodrigo De Paul is more willing to contribute defensively than most 10s, but he’s still a 10. They need a linking player between them to fuckin’ run around a bit. Enter Conor Gallagher, who is certifiably A Guy Who Runs Around.

A lot of the other teams who were eying Gallagher might have ended up disappointed that their high cost central midfielder didn’t give them enough high quality passing output. Atléti have other guys for that; they need Gallagher to work hard and simply not give the ball away. He should be up to that.

So to answer the question in the subject line: I don’t think he’d have been worth €40m for a lot of teams, but he is to Atlético Madrid. I love this specific fit.

—KM

News and Rumors

• There’s something enjoyable about watching Pep Guardiola irritatedly answering questions over the rare wantaway player. Julian Alvarez is the latest catalyst to these events, with Atletico Madrid leading the way, and sundry others rumored off and on throughout the summer. The Mirror have decided to connect Arsenal to this transfer, but as we covered last week, it doesn’t feel like Arsenal’s attention is on a center forward right now.
  
  Alvarez and Conor Gallagher would be an impressive summer raid on English shores for Diego Simeone.

• The Telegraph reports Bayern Munich have rejected a joint bid from Manchester United for De Ligt and Mazraoui. No Man U, you cannot treat the transfer market like supermarket discounts, and get percentages off for bulk buys. On the other hand, maybe if they collect enough points they can redeem them for a special edition Musiala bobblehead.

• We now also really want a special edition Musiala bobblehead for our collection.

• West Ham are BUSY. Fullkrug looks nearly final, Summerville is final, they are trying to woo Wan-Bissaka to East London, and are apparently batting their eyes at Guido Rodriguez. Who sounds like a generic Danny Trejo villain character, but is actually an out-of-contract midfielder recently of Real Betis.
  
  I liked Fullkrug a lot when I was scouting him as a 22-year old. As a 31 year old changing countries to a harder league… ehhh. Nice work from Dortmund though!

• Newcastle continue to price shop the center back transfer market. Palace’s current reported price for Marc Guehi (remember, everything is lies until it’s not) is £50M base plus add-ons. Malick Thiaw was closer to €40M + add-ons. It feels like there will be more to come.

• “RB Leipzig will reject a second bid from Barcelona for Dani Olmo.” That sort of future tensing transfer rumors is baffling. What if the second offer was 100M, cash only? Rejected? I think not. In fact, we’re pretty sure Leipzig would snap off 60M for Olmo, except Barcelona are trying to finance it through a world record Klarna payment/sponsorship deal as the 63rd lever.

• In a bit of truly left field rumoring, but of the enjoyable variety Universo Online (in Portuguese) suggests,
  
  Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis wants to persuade Arsenal sporting director Edu Gaspar to leave Emirates Stadium and move to the City Ground.

  
  Is this Marinakis planting seeds in foreign press? Is it Edu asking for an improved contract? Is it once again shopping season for sporting directors as well? We lean the Edu route since the source is Portuguese, but with Marinakis involved it could be anything.

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