Finding the right fit for Martín Zubimendi

Today’s newsletter on Martin Zubimendi is a guest piece by José C. Pérez. José has previously appeared on The Transfer Flow Podcast. You can find him on Twitter at @jcperez_ and read his work regularly at Football España.

Picture this: San Sebastián’s air bites with that crisp, coastal chill. The Anoeta Stadium buzzes with anticipation, and Martín Zubimendi — Real Sociedad’s homegrown metronome — snags a loose pass and pings the ball forward, all in one fluid motion. The crowd roars, not just for the skill, but for the symbolism: a local lad, born and raised in San Sebastián, is leading the team and holding the fort.

At 26, Zubimendi is no longer an academy kid breaking through; he’s the heartbeat of a side that was playing Champions League football last season but is currently stumbling through the 2024-25 season. Now, with over 200 appearances for the Txuri-urdin side, one wonders how long he will remain in his hometown now that Europe’s elite circles around like seagulls ready to pounce on a tasty local pintxo.

Real Sociedad: a season of frustrations

Under Imanol Alguacil, Real Sociedad built an identity around structured possession, pressing, and control. While often described as an offensive and “attractive” team, their success relied more on winning duels and well-timed fouls than intricate passing and goal-scoring.

This approach brought five straight finishes in the league’s top six, but this season, La Real languishes in 12th place. Defensively, they’ve held steady. Both in goals and xG conceded, they are performing at last season’s levels. The problem? Goals. Or rather, the lack thereof. With just 25 goals, they are tied with Getafe as La Liga’s second-worst offense. They are five goals below their xG, per FBREF data, but the bigger concern is a 10% drop in xG created compared to last season. And last season already had a 15% decline compared to the one before.

This decline stems from a steady erosion of attacking talent. Over the last six years, players like Mikel Merino, Martin Ødegaard, Alexander Isak, and Alexander Sørloth have come and gone. David Silva retired, and injuries turned Mikel Oyarzabal into a different, less impactful player. Their successors — Brais Méndez, Sergio Gómez, Luka Sučić, Arsen Zakharyan, Ander Barrenetxea, Sheraldo Becker, and a carousel of inconsistent strikers — have yet to reach a similar level. Each departure chipped away at La Real’s offensive bite, and this year, they’ve hit a new low. Takefusa Kubo has been the attack’s most consistent performer, yet his output alone isn’t good enough to drag the team back into European contention.

Faced with this talent drain, Alguacil has struggled to find new solutions, and as results slip, frustrations are mounting. After a painful loss in the Basque Derby in November, he fumed: “If I could have substituted all eleven players, I would have.” Captain Mikel Oyarzabal defended the players and fired back: “Maybe we need to take a look at how we set it up [the game],” a clear jab at Alguacil’s tactics. While the squad still backs him, Alguacil himself might be one closest to burning out. His contract expires at the end of the season, and there’s no sign of renewal yet.

Zubimendi shines amid the gloom

In the midst of this turbulence, Zubimendi has stepped up. His performances remain as sharp as ever—perhaps even better. This is reflected by the radar comparison below, which shows his 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons.

With the midfield structure increasingly disjointed, he’s making more tackles, interceptions, and blocks than in previous years, all while increasing the success rate in his duels (66% tackle success, 67% aerial duel success, per FBref). On the ball, his role has expanded slightly since Merino’s departure, with a few more touches, passes, and progressive actions. However, with the attack misfiring, his shot creation has taken a dip — a reflection of wider team issues and his own creative limitations.

Real Sociedad’s possession style also doesn’t flatter him in Hudl StatsBomb’s OBV (On-Ball Value) model. La Real ranks 4th in La Liga in possession (54.3%) but just 11th in passing accuracy (78.5%). Their riskier approach can lead to more ball losses, which will be penalized by the OBV model.

The pros and cons of the midfield organizer

Zubimendi has never been an analytics darling; his bars are not as green as those of high-volume defensive or ball progression freaks. I wouldn’t define Zubimendi as an elite midfield destroyer or playmaker but as a midfield organizer. Let’s discuss what that means.

He excels at circulating possession quickly and efficiently and occasionally delivers a great line-breaking pass or switch of play, but he isn’t a top-tier deep playmaker. He won’t thread a defense-splitting pass through a parked bus, solve buildup issues single-handedly, or rack up 15 progressive passes a game.

He is not obsessed with having the ball, as he explained during a 2022 interview:

His technique allows him to be like a pressure valve, executing simple passes very quickly under pressure to keep the team ticking. He makes those around him better by being in the right place at the right time and keeps things flowing while others take creative risks. It’s the kind of unglamorous, glue-like presence that doesn’t pop in ball progression metrics.

His biggest impact, however, happens out of possession. It’s not just about tackles and interceptions — it’s about countless small adjustments to prevent danger before it materializes. He knows when to step up and press and when to sit back and protect the space behind him. His discipline, timing, and positioning help organize a defensive structure.

Data models tend to highlight players racking up defensive actions, but Zubimendi is more about duel quality than quantity. He picks his battles wisely and wins them not through raw strength or pace but through impeccable positioning and timing. That’s why his ground duel success rate is among the best in his position.

He’s no physical powerhouse, but he comes from a team culture obsessed with winning duels, and he reads the game so well that he rarely finds himself chasing shadows. As Kieran Tierney describes the intensity of Real Sociedad’s training in an interview for The Athletic, it’s hard to imagine Zubimendi struggling with English football:

Which club needs him the most? A potential transfer fit guide

With so many top teams circling, the big question isn’t who wants Zubimendi but who needs him the most.

Arsenal feels like the obvious fit and currently has the strongest transfer links to the player. Mikel Arteta’s system principles mirror Real Sociedad’s: possession, pressing, control, structure. Zubimendi’s got the traits Arteta craves, particularly out of possession. The problem is, does he really move the needle? He is a midfield organizer, yet Arsenal’s possession and defensive structures are organized almost to a fault. Zubimendi might just be another cog in a machine that’s crying out for a spark, not more stability.

Now, Liverpool, Bayern, or Barcelona? That’s where it gets more interesting. These are high-wire acts — teams that push forward, take risks, and leave gaps. Zubimendi’s off-ball organizing could provide their safety net: neutralizing counters, winning second balls, and quickly redistributing them to more creative players such as Salah, Musiala, or Pedri.

A Real Madrid destination feels less convincing. Ancelotti’s team thrives in chaos and prefers players who put out fires in the team’s patchy tactical structure. Zubimendi isn’t a firefighter, he’s the guy who prevents the fire from happening in the first place. The situation might change, however, if Madrid appoints a new coach who prioritizes structure more than Ancelotti, perhaps one who also happens to be Zubimendi’s idol and mentor.

The Manchester clubs are also in the rumor mill, but a move there feels unlikely. City has the one holding midfielder guaranteed to start over Zubimendi, while cash-strapped United lacks the pull to lure him in over other projects.

A transfer decision looms

Zubimendi’s contract runs until 2027, making this summer decision time for Real Sociedad — sell now or push for a renewal? The player has a strong attachment to his Basque home and family, so perhaps he would rather stay in Spain, closer to home. So, if a Spanish giant makes a serious offer, suitors in England and Germany may get a polite “gracias, pero no gracias.” That’s why Arsenal is moving fast before such an offer materializes.

Any club that signs him won’t be getting a headline-maker, but they’ll be getting something more valuable: reliability and organization. And in this superclub football with razor-thin margins, that can mean the difference between silverware and second place.

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