Everyone wants this striker... his team wants €100m

Benfica striker Vangelis Pavlidis is the subject of interest from all of Barcelona, ​​Atlético Madrid, Chelsea, and Newcastle, according to Portuguese outlet Record. They also say that Benfica are seriously aiming to get his full €100m release clause in a transfer.

I’m pretty confident that no one is going to pay €100m for Pavlidis, a player who moved for €20m last summer, and has been great but not dominant since. He’s had some very solid performances in Champions League and recently scored a hat trick against Porto, but this is not an obvious €100m player.

Pavlidis is very well-rounded, offering his team some very solid shooting, dribbling and playmaking value, along with elite pressing.

His shot map reflects solid instincts and decision-making. This isn’t a particularly high volume of shots, but he’s also been rested in league play ahead of big Champions League matches on several occasions. I’d call this very nice, a solid return on investment for Benfica’s €20m, but not something that the world’s richest clubs should be paying €100m for.

And finally, the main reason that fee is a pure fantasy. Here’s Pavlidis compared to the last striker that Benfica got a massive fee for. Darwin Núñez, who was 4 years younger at the time of that transfer and a more dangerous attacker in every single way, went for €75m, plus some add-ons.

In addition to all that, all the teams listed as interested in Pavlidis do not have €100m in their budget given financial restrictions in the leagues they play in, and would need to make huge sales to justify that kind of purchase. So what’s happening here?

Pure speculation time! My hypothesis is that Benfica would much rather keep Pavlidis around for another season or two rather than cashing out on him. For that reason, they’ve “leaked” that they expect to sell him for his full release clause, and the “interested” clubs are ones that they know won’t make a bid like that. The price point and supposedly interested parties are designed to make legit suitors feel like pursuing him is not even worth their time and effort. Pavlidis can’t get mad at Benfica for not letting him move to a bigger league if no one ever made a serious bid.

Obviously you don’t start a negotiation with the number you’re willing to sell at. But by starting with this number, Benfica aren’t negotiating. They’re telling potential bidders to piss off.

More transfer rumours:

• Another striker that Newcastle is being linked to is Moise Kean, who we’ve discussed on the newsletter before. In contrast to Pavlidis, who’s a bit of an all-rounder, Kean is very narrowly focused. He shoot ball. Striker only for shooting.

• Kicker have linked Everton to Merlin Röhl, a 6’3” central midfielder from Freiburg who has very bad passing and ball-winning numbers. He wins aerials and does nothing else. They should not spend 8 figures on this player.

• Eberechi Eze’s agent and/or entourage is yapping about Liverpool being interested in him, which doesn’t make a lot of sense. He’d just add to the glut they have in the No. 10 space.

• The Daily Mail says Brighton and Bournemouth are interested in Bristol Rovers teenager Kofi Shaw, who is a pretty spectacular dribbler from the central midfield position. I have to admit I am not terribly well-versed on what Premier League teams should be paying for raw developmental projects from League One, but he looks exciting.

• Fichajes believes Chelsea are going to offer Real Madrid €120m for Rodrygo, and you know what? Sure man. Why not? Money isn’t real. PSR isn’t real.

• I saw a few folks speculating that Real Madrid could go for Rafael Leão if Rodrygo or Vini Jr. is sold for a big fee this summer, and I kind of disagree with that line of thinking. If one of those guys goes, I’d be inclined to sign a false 9 or back to goal, holdup-style striker to get Kylian Mbappe starting wide more often.

• Inter Milan have offered Kevin De Bruyne the chance to continue competing at Champions League level, if he’d prefer that to making obscene amounts of money overseas. They’ve managed to keep Henrikh Mkhitaryan performing at CL level, why not KDB?

• Two players Manchester City are being linked to at the moment as KDB replacements are Nottingham Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White and Lyon’s Rayan Cherki. I find it hard to believe that a scouting department as sophisticated as City’s, with a well-defined game model to work off, has identified both of these players as potential targets for the same role. Cherki is a tricky playmaker with limited physical upside and workrate. Gibbs-White is a superb athlete and ball-winner for an attacking midfielder. If City likes both of them, it’s for two different jobs.

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