Evaluating Europe's biggest January transfers

The day after the January transfer window closed, we took a look at the biggest transfers in the Premier League. They outspent the rest of Europe’s big 5 combined. But there were still some really interesting moves across the Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, so we thought we’d catch you up on a few of those. —KM

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Paris Saint-Germain for €80 million

We went into more detail about this move when it was in the late rumour stage, and I feel the same way now as I did then. In Kvara’s two starts for PSG, Bradley Barcola has sat on the bench for one, and moved to the right wing for the other. He had two shots for 0.22 xG in the latter match. I hate it here.

9 players to Rennes for €75m

Rennes currently sit one spot above the relegation places in Ligue 1, and they clearly do not want to stay there. They purchased three players who are 29 or older for fees in excess of €10m, which is not something that Rennes should ever do for any reason. I assume they’d ultimately like to become a team that competes for European places again, and this transfer window is probably a significant setback.

But forgetting about optimal financial strategy for a minute, I am excited as a football fan to see Kyogo Furuhashi get a chance to compete in a stronger league. He’s been outstanding for Celtic, who have done well to cash in on a 30-year-old after getting a lot of production out of him. Playing for Celtic inflates anyone’s numbers, but Furuhashi was consistently excellent.

Mika Biereth to Monaco for €13m

A Danish-Bosnian guy, born in England, who came up through the Arsenal academy, and eventually settled at Sturm Graz in Austria. Also, he did this in the Austrian Bundesliga, which is why Monaco have paid 8 figures to sign him.

Biereth has scored 4 goals in 3 games since arriving at Monaco, including a hat trick against Auxerre. He’s probably in line for his first Danish national team call-up now. These are my favorite kinds of football stories.

Amine Gouiri to Marseille for €19m

Marseille hopes they’re buying low on a guy who used to be an elite goal-scorer from the wing. Gouiri was considered one of the top up-and-coming attacking talents in France at one point, but he’s stalled out hard the last couple of seasons.

I wouldn’t have paid €19m for this guy, but there’s a non-zero chance that a change of scenery sparks him to life and it looks like a bargain eventually.

Elye Wahi to Frankfurt for €26m

It’s strange that Marseille bought Wahi in the same window as Mason Greenwood, Jonathan Rowe and Neal Maupay, but they’ve gotten exactly their money back.

Substitution effects caveat here, but this looks like a potentially effective player in the right situation. “Omar Marmoush replacement in Frankfurt’s 3-5-2” is probably a good situation.

Hopefully Frankfurt have done their due diligence when it comes to any off-pitch issues Wahi might have. I’m not currently an investigative reporter and UK libel laws are very fun, so I’m going to limit my commentary on him, but give the “controversies” section of his Wikipedia page a look.

Andreas Skov Olsen to Wolfsburg for €15m

The former FM wonderkid didn’t have a great time in Serie A after leaving his home country, but he’s been balling in Belgium.

€15m seems like a fair price for a prime-age player putting up good numbers at Club Brugge, and Wolfsburg seems like a good landing spot for him. Everyone involved gets a solid B grade. 👍

Xavi Simons to RB Leipzig for €50m

As mentioned previously in a rumours roundup newsletter, this is some variety of not real. Teams do not pay €50m fees for players who are only willing to sign two-year contracts. Either they’ve already agreed to sell him on elsewhere, or there’s some financial reason they want to delay inking a longer-term contract. We’ll learn more about why the structure of this deal is the way it is this summer.

Santiago Giménez to AC Milan for €32m

It’s a huge meme that strikers from top Eredivisie teams don’t score when they go to other leagues, but I don’t know how anyone can evaluate Giménez as anything but a really good striker. He gets a lot of shots inside the box, scores goals, and works hard as a presser.

Milan have changed managers mid-season, and it’s pretty clear that new boss Sérgio Conceição prefers a classic out-and-out No. 9 to a deep-lying all-rounder like Álvaro Morata, who has been shipped out to Galatasaray.

Randal Kolo Muani to Juventus on loan

Kolo Muani already has 3 goals for Juventus, hooray! They came on 4 shots. He’s putting up 0.27 xG per 90 in his early appearances. I consider myself extremely Vlahovic-skeptical, but the problem is not the striker my dudes. Your whole entire attack is busted.

10 players to Como for €48m

Much like Rennes, this team that should be too rich and talented to go down would really like to make extra sure that they don’t go down. I like their moves a lot more. They’ve spent quite a bit less, and they’ve purchased early prime-age players who will retain resale value if they do happen to go down.

One of them is Maxence Caqueret, who I previously mentioned in a newsletter about potential budget players who were signable in January. Given the sparse and wacky DM market, I expected Caqueret to go to a traditionally bigger team, and for a little bit more than €15m.

This is a solid player who could do a job for a high Europa League, low Champions League type of team… which is kind of what Lyon is, or should be when not in financial crisis.

Cucho Hernández to Betis for €13m

MLS mentioned!!! This versatile deep-lying forward is just as much a playmaker as he is a goal-scorer. Hernández tallied 19 goals for Columbus Crew last season, but also 14 assists. His radar looks a little more like that of a 10 than a striker.

MLS is in this really strange place where their clubs have more revenue than all but the top 5-6 teams in La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1, but transfers to those teams are still extremely attractive for MLS players. In rare cases, the right fit can be found, and this seems like a very good deal for all parties.

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