Erik ten Hag isn't the most likely Prem manager to get sacked this week

Every outlet that covers English football has been spending the last couple of weeks speculating about whether or not Erik ten Hag is getting sacked soon, including this one.

I’m sure you’ve read or watched a dozen takes on it already, so I thought we’d lead today’s newsletter with a bit on the one coach I think might deserve to get fired even more. Plus our usual Friday grab bag of stuff to watch and stuff we’re reading.

Friday is also when Ted drops the gambling newsletter with market-implied model odds and his bets for the weekend, so check that out if you haven’t yet. —KM

West Ham probably got that coaching hire wrong

Julien Lopetegui is currently having a bad time at West Ham. His side is 14th on 5 points from 6 games despite spending £90m in the transfer market this summer. They’re right where they should be on expected points, according to Understat.

And tensions are apparently already boiling over. Lopetegui and Mohammed Kudus had an argument on the sidelines after Kudus was substituted against Brentford, and someone felt it necessary to leak to reporters that the argument escalated in the dressing room.

On paper, Lopetegui’s resume made him look like a solid hire for the Hammers. His Porto teams had good numbers, he never lost a game with Spain, he won the Europa League with Sevilla, and he kept Wolves up very comfortably. His Real Madrid stint was bad, but West Ham are not Real Madrid.

Whatever West Ham thought they were getting with Lopetegui hasn’t happened yet. They look more disconnected and lacking a cohesive tactical idea than any team in the Premier League. They seem to press aimlessly and lose their midfield shape very easily. Their defense is appalling.

Last week’s draw against Brentford was a slight improvement, but they were still completely unprepared for the Brentford kickoff play that everyone knows they’re going to run by now, which is indicative of bad coaching.

West Ham host Ipswich on Saturday, and it’s a game you’d expect to win if you think your team has the right coach in place and can compete for top half. I like Kieran McKenna as a coach and think Ipswich have set themselves up well to make a profit on transfers and compete for promotion again if they get relegated, but they are not currently a good Premier League side.

Erik ten Hag might survive a bad result away to a very good Aston Villa team. If West Ham lose to Ipswich at home, I think it’ll be time to admit they made a mistake with Lopetegui and move on.

By the way, anyone notice that Graham Potter’s been doing the media rounds lately? Hmmmm…

Games we’re watching

Here’s one game from each of Europe’s top 5 leagues that’s worth your time this weekend.

Aston Villa vs. Manchester United — The aforementioned maybe/maybe not must-win game for Erik ten Hag also just looks like one of the most competitive in the Prem this weekend. Hey, Unai Emery: Jhon Duran start? Jhon Duran start tonite king? 👀

Real Madrid vs. Villarreal — “Sure Vini and Mbappe want to play in the same position but they’ll figure it out.” Folks, they’re very much not figuring it out at the moment. Carlo Ancelotti’s switch to a diamond was a sensible attempt at a solution, but Madrid’s had 3 straight very average performances. Villarreal, meanwhile, are currently overperforming their talent level (and expected points).

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Bayern Munich — Hey, Eintracht Frankfurt are 2nd in the Bundesliga table at the moment, let’s check out what they’re doing this ye- OH DANG.

Bayern’s got a tough game for the 2nd week in a row, right after a bad road trip to Aston Villa. Big test for them.

Inter Milan vs. Torino — These are two teams you associate with defensively solid 3-5-2 mid-to-low block defending, but they’ve both been uncharacteristically exciting over the last month. They should cancel each other out in a low shot volume match… but what if they don’t?

Rennes vs. Monaco — Monaco is one of the best teams in the world for pure entertainment value this season, and they might be reeling a bit after their 2-2 draw with Dinamo Zagreb. Rennes have some pretty nasty home/away splits early in the season and could pull an upset.

Stuff we’re reading

Luis Kircher at Total Football Analysis has a preview of the aforementioned Eintracht vs. Bayern match.

It’s been a while since we’ve done something for the American readers. At Pro Soccer Wire, Jason Anderson talked to USWNT players about how Emma Hayes fixed their mentality, and Seth Vertelney has takeaways from Mauricio Pochettino’s first USMNT squad.

The Athletic has a piece from several reporters on Arne Slot’s training methods, and Dermot Corrigan has a rather grim look at Barcelona’s finances.

Grace Robertson’s Grace on Football asks if Manchester City can recreate Giam… I mean, Rodri, in the aggregate.

Kyle Boas’ Tactics Journal makes a great point about the body positioning of Aston Villa’s players and how it helps them start attacks.

This is not reading but I enjoyed this week’s episode of The Double Pivot Podcast on the biggest Premier League data stories so far, and managers lying in press conferences.

Alex Bishop at The Guardian wrote about how Tokyo Verdy Beleza became the best talent factory in women’s football.

Stephen Ganavas at Scouted has a looooooooooooooong read on La Liga’s cost cap and how a mid-budget team like Real Sociedad finds great talent to compete with the rich clubs.

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