Digging into the Champions League quarterfinal matchups

The UEFA Champions League has come down to the real top contenders that you’d expect to see here. The crests you really want to see on the page. Former treble winners. Teams with Ballon d’Or contenders.

Also Aston Villa got here too, which is pretty sick.

Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa

I’ve fired up the attacking and defensive StatsBomb radar comparisons for each Champions League quarterfinal ties. And with zero disrespect intended, Villa look like by far the biggest underdogs. Their attack has been meh, with the departed Jhon Duran firing them to some results on 0.00000001 xG bangers. Their total inability to create set piece chances is a huge negative for their prospects of pulling an upset against Paris Saint-Germain.

Meanwhile, PSG are just crushing it in every way imaginable, with only back-to-back superstar performances by Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson Becker making their lives difficult against the Premier League leaders last round.

But Villa have been very solid defensively, and with a much different style of play than their upcoming opponents. They’re good at pressing immediately after losing the ball, but settling into a deeper shape if they don’t win it back early. PSG are your typical Big Club that does their defending higher up the pitch and presses a lot.

I think Villa are a good enough team to keep this tie competitive, but there’s not really a good reason to think they have any matchup advantages against PSG.

Arsenal vs. Real Madrid

Real Madrid… aren’t that good? Arsenal… aren’t as bad as the doomers might have you think?

Are these guys just the same attacking team?

OK, it seems a bit silly to say that about a team with Arsenal’s injury crisis vs. a Real Madrid team that is likely to have Vini Jr. and Kylian Mbappe in the lineup. But Real Madrid had just 10 shots and 1.15 xG against Atléti on Wednesday, and that’s been a typical Champions League performance for them.

I don’t think there’s any reason Arsenal can’t outscore Madrid, especially given… BRUH.

I’m not gonna lie, I had not noticed that Real Madrid’s defense had been this poor and this passive in Champions League this season. What the actual hell? Meanwhile, Arsenal's defense continues to be one of the best in the world, even as their attacking threat has slowly eroded away.

A casual fan is going to look at the names on the lineups and say that Real Madrid is clearly fielding the better team. And it certainly feels like the universe favors Los Blancos in this competition, giving them ridiculous bailouts like an opponent double-hitting a penalty. But there isn’t much of a data case for Madrid being better than Arsenal in Champions League so far this year.

Barcelona vs. Borussia Dortmund

We’re gonna keep it brief on this one: Barcelona are better than Dortmund. I think they could bench a couple of their stars and still be better than Dortmund. Sure, most of BVB’s numbers came under a different coach, but they’ve still got the same players. Their attack is mid.

And their defense is mid. I think there are definitely teams that can defy the stats and exploit matchups against Barcelona’s ultra high press and offside trap, but Dortmund don’t feel like one of them. They’ve got dribbly boys and target men, but no real run in behind threats. Give me Barca something like 5-1 aggregate.

Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan

“Styles make fights” is a huge cliche in the boxing and MMA worlds, and I think it’s one you could apply to this matchup as well. Bayern and Inter are both very good teams, but they couldn’t be more stylistically different. There are going to be all kinds of interesting micro-tactical battles, to go along with the wildly different shapes and approaches.

Bayern are a slow buildup team who like to pin opponents in their own half and suffocate them slowly. Inter are comfortable playing that kind of game and taking a low volume of chances on the counter.

These are both great defenses, but in completely different ways. Bayern use the aforementioned typical rich club style, pressing high and pinning opponents back. Inter have virtually zero interest in this and settle into a deep 5-3-2 shape very quickly when attacks fizzle out.

Neither Inter or Bayern has matched up frequently against a team matching both the quality and style of the other. This should be by far the most interesting tie of the round.

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