Darwin Núñez has a big opportunity vs. Arsenal

Hello friends, and welcome to the Friday grab bag.

Over on the podcast, Patrick and Ravi discussed the possibility of Xabi Alonso taking over from Pep Guardiola at Manchester City, and they previewed El Clásico. If you’re not a YouTube person and prefer your podcasts in audio-only format, you can pop the RSS feed into your platform of choice, or search for “The Transfer Flow Podcast” on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

On the premium newsletter, Ted got into why he’s not currently playing accumulators/parlays, as well as his picks and the market-implied odds for the weekend. If you’re interested in gambling content, you can upgrade here.

OK, onto one of my favorite subjects: Getting the ball to the big man and letting him dominate. —KM

It’s Darwin time

Two of the biggest stars will be missing from this weekend’s clash between Arsenal and Liverpool, with center back William Saliba suspended for the Gunners and striker Diogo Jota injured for the Reds. This presents a huge opportunity for Darwin Núñez, who has yet to get firing for Liverpool in the Premier League this season.

This is a tiny sample size and mostly short sub appearances, but it’s still true that Núñez has struggled to get quality shots in the Premier League this year. He’s scored one great goal, but he’s on a very pedestrian 0.18 xG per 90 minutes and has just 4 shots. Last season, he was one of the best strikers in the league with 0.57 xG per 90.

But Núñez looked a lot closer to the best version of himself in the Champions League midweek, tallying 1.09 xG from 3 shots and scoring the game-winning goal against RB Leipzig. He’ll go into the Arsenal match with the benefit of knowing he’s the man up top from the start, and with the team having planned around his presence in the team, rather than Jota’s.

He’ll also be salivating looking at Arsenal’s list of missing players and the backup-laden back line he’s about to face. Saliba isn’t the only one out — Jurrien Timber, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Riccardo Calafiori have also been injured recently. Ben White could move inside from right back to center back, or Jakub Kiwior could get a start. They’re not bad players, but they’ll certainly be easier for Núñez to run past or bully off the ball than Saliba would be.

I think this is a really scary matchup for Arsenal given the circumstances, and a great opportunity for Núñez to turn his season around — and establish Liverpool as title contenders.

Games we’re watching

As always, the easiest place to find times and TV/streaming listings for your region is LiveSoccerTV.

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona — Can’t imagine I need to sell you on El Clásico. Real Madrid have the two best forwards in the world over the last couple of seasons, Barcelona have the best team in the world on current form. Doesn’t get better than this.

Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt — No massive matchups in the Bundesliga this weekend, but we haven’t mentioned Union much this year, and they continue to overperform their budget. They’ll be a tough defensive matchup for emerging star Hugo Ekitike.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool — This feels like a pivotal moment in the title race. I know we’re supposed to be the data nerds who tell you that any game is just one of 38 and they all have the same points on the line, but if either team loses this game it’s going to feel like a massive gut punch.

Inter Milan vs. Juventus — Both were really disappointing mid-week in Champions League, perhaps looking ahead to the big derby at the weekend? I’m not sure who I like in the battle between Juve’s surprisingly bad attack and Inter’s surprisingly leaky defense.

Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain — This one doesn’t get as much play as other big derby matches in the English-speaking world, but it’s one of the fiercest around. Marseille are overperforming their expected points on Understat by 5 and really need to start actually playing football well if they want to challenge PSG for the title.

Stuff we’re reading

Michael Cox at The Athletic dove into Barcelona’s exceptionally high defensive line.

The team at Scouted dropped the Scouted50 for this season, their annual list of potential breakout young players to watch.

Luis Kircher at Total Football Analysis went deeper into some youngsters from German-speaking countries.

Grace Robertson at Grace On Football was very much in favor of England hiring Thomas Tuchel to be its next men’s team manager.

Flo Lloyd-Hughes at The Cutback has a look at what to expect from England women during this international break.

Seth Vertelney at Pro Soccer Wire has three thoughts on the U.S. women’s win over Iceland on Thursday.

Ryan O’Hanlon at ESPN looks at Christian Pulisic’s evolution into a more of a playmaker than a speedy winger.

Jacob Steinberg at The Guardian details the pressure that technical director Tim Steidten and manager Julien Lopetegui are under at West Ham.

Luis Paez-Pumar at Defector comments on Russell Martin’s stubbornness and how unlikely Southampton is to stay up with their current tactics.

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