Cole Palmer running ice cold

And more on every game in your Premier League roundup.

Author

Ted Knutson
March 10, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

+1200 on the weekend for Variance Betting, with one more game to go tonight. I’m still up big on the season, but a substantial recovery was necessary after the horror show of the last Champions League round.

Meanwhile, it kind of felt like another average weekend of the Premier League... Except for the fact that the European spots, including the final Champions League place, are now chocka with teams that could sneak in before the end of the season. Liverpool have already won the league, but only five points separate fourth and ninth, which is setting up some sizzle for the final ten games of the run-in.

I feel like this season more than any other, injuries are dictating what we see at the top of the table across so many teams. City and Arsenal have been ravaged. Chelsea and Newcastle have had some issues. Forest and Liverpool… nary a blip, and they have the results to show for it.

Kim was unconvinced Forest could get something out of this match, but my perspective was that the Zen Buddhists of Sherwood Forest would be able to enforce nothingness, especially at home. City had 14 shots, but a paltry .73 xG on the day.

Ederson had an unbelievable save in a sequence at about the 45-second mark in the highlights. It looks simple, but the placement and pace on the shot from Hudson-Odoi crossed with the traffic in front of the GK meant something special was needed to keep it out of the goal.

It was CHO that also had the goal to give Forest the 1-0 win, from a crazy acute angle and a deflection that put it in off the near post.

Khusanov + Gonzalez seem to have been enough to stabilise the City defense. Now the trick - and this has always been Guardiola’s magic — will be figuring out how to get the attack to create consistent elite chances while continuing to smother opponents. He hasn’t found that recipe yet with this group of players.

United’s goal came off a foul near the box, and a brilliantly-placed freekick from Bruno Fernandes. I don’t think that’s a goal without the screen near the wall from United. It was struck well, but if Raya was able to see it and react faster, he probably could have gotten a glove on it. That’s good set pieces, folks.

Watching the match and the highlights, Raya was unbelievable otherwise. It felt like he saved three amazing chances that should have given United the win any other match day.

Meanwhile, injuries have cost Arsenal their attack against any team that isn’t providing free gifts upon arrival (looking at you, PSV). United served up 17 shots and 1.6 xG, so nearly qualified, and the eventual capitulation to Declan Rice certainly felt like it was coming.

This isn’t an awful result — Liverpool has dropped points against United this year too — and Arsenal are already locked into the next CL round, so maybe a return to health and longer days will lighten the mood in North London.

Cole Palmer hasn’t scored in nine, including missing a penalty here (to cause me to lose my bet, tyvm). He also might not have been fully healthy. Jadon Sancho hasn’t scored in sixteen. The goal here came from Marc Cucurella?

It’s weird, because Chelsea have the best attacking expected goals numbers in the league according to StatsBomb, but they certainly do not have the brutal efficiency of Liverpool’s forwards to go alongside them.

It’s a win, and it was never really in doubt. But it didn’t exactly feel great, did it?

This was a dreadful 15 shots total match, but the goals outside of the penalty were peaches.

Brighton’s highlights start with the Iwobi early cross, which actually occurred in minute 35. It is an ABSURD ball, delivered at near full-speed after a 50-yard run, which Jimenez chested into a half-volley and a thunderous finish.

Brighton’s equalizer came off a wide free kick where Fulham’s zone didn’t adjust to the ball properly and Van Hecke had a fantabulous open header bank in off the far post. Should any centreback get a free header off a free kick? No. And that’s why it was 1-1.

I’ve watched the Joao Pedro penalty goal multiple times from multiple angles and have no idea what to think. Sort of like the player himself, I guess. He’s a beautiful ball of chaos right now, but I’m not convinced he’s actually good yet.

Brighton are on a heater that has them right back in contention for a Champions League spot, something that seemed impossible after the 7-0 loss to Forest at the start of February.

This was fun for a neutral. Like most Spurs games, really. It’s their own fans that they delight in torturing.

You MUST watch the Bournemouth goal and then the one that was ruled out by VAR. Electric football, there.

Spurs kept consistent pressure on all day, but it certainly looked like Bournemouth walked out thinking they deserved a lot more than a draw.

The world is excited by Adam Wharton, and his throughball for Nketiah to open the highlights shows exactly why. Hopefully he stays healthy for a good while, because his development is exciting both for Palace and the England national team.

StatsBomb has this match as around 4.4 xG in total, with Palace at 2.76 and one goal. That said, Ipswich had the best chance off the match off a Jaden Philogen shot off a pinballed corner.

Ismaila Sarr finally got Palace a goal in the 82nd, with a bit of luck putting the ball at his feet for a deft touch through on goal. Yes, Palace deserved to win, but not controlling Ipswich more than this is a black mark on what has been quite a good run this year.

Look, we get it. Everyone except Liverpool fans are fairly jaded by the title race at this point. It’s easier when City are in this position because Liverpool fans are a lot more fun when they aren’t running away with the league, but still somehow anxiety-riddled and defensive at the same time.

I got genuinely excited by Southampton’s goal. Not because I care about the team or a potential upset or even a bet, but because it came off a throw-in throughball that’s exactly what blows people’s minds in our set piece course. Transition throw-ins might be my favourite part of the game these days.

Meanwhile, we were treated to a full Darwin Nunez Experience day. He nearly got himself sent off before scoring the equalising goal and later winning a penalty for Salah. A second penalty for a handball, and Liverpool had a fairly easy day (4 xG total after the two pens), even with a less-than-perfect performance.

They’ll need to muster something a lot better than they did in Paris midweek to get through to the next CL round, but the league is toast, so they should be able to play the strongest available team from here out.

Unlike a lot of Brentford home matches, this one was low scoring, with an average number of shots, but pretty much all from distance or angles. The Watkins goal looked like a horrible GK gaffe across two replays until the third showed a deflection on the attempted block — he also hammered it — which explains why Flekken looked so confused about the whole situation.

Villa had a second ruled offside by VAR, and then did what they always do — try to contain the team trying to get back into the game. They largely succeeded, and created a couple of break opportunities themselves, including a huge 1v1 for Watkins at the end that was chipped to the keeper.

My suspicion is Brentford were very unhappy with some refereeing decisions on this one given it was in West London, but whaddayagonnado?

[YT note. The Brentford highlights were MUCH better than the Sky ones this go round. Well done to their social media team for packing in all the action.]

Expected 1-1 game between two not-quite-relegation teams ended 1-1.

—TK

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