Chelsea's unhinged transfers create a giant mess

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Welcome back to our transfer grades. Unlike mainstream media, we don’t care about maintaining access to club sources in order to keep our jobs. They can’t ban us from press conferences for what we say here. Well, I mean they could… but who would bother listening to a press conference in this day and age?

Our distance from the subjects at hand combined with actual expertise in the transfer markets is what sets us apart from most of what you can consume from other so-called experts.

Plus we’re handsome and funny. What’s not to love?

And in today’s edition, it’s what lets us be particularly mean to Chelsea. Who have a first team that is actually fun to watch, but their summer transfer business… whooboy.

Also, thanks to our advertising partner for this newsletter, 1440 Media. We’d appreciate it if you would help us out by checking them out.

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As explained in yesterday’s post, we tried our best to separate out guaranteed fees from add-ons, but there isn’t detailed and accurate reporting on every transfer. Ravi’s expanded thoughts will be on the podcast.

Crystal Palace — This is fine (really, nothing’s on fire)

Total incomings — £74.5m

• Eddie Nketiah — £25m + £5m add-ons

• Maxence Lacroix — £15m + £3m add-ons

• Ismaila Sarr — £12.5m

• Chadi Riad — £12m + £2m add-ons

• Daichi Kamada — Free

• Trevoh Chalobah — Loan, no buy option

• Matt Turner — Loan, no buy option

Ignoring Nketiah for a moment, I like all of these deals. They are low cost, and low risk/solid upside moves. Kamada is already great fun to watch, and the centreback pickups should let them cash in on Guehi next summer.

The fee on Nketiah is fine. I think the way I would frame that move is: what could a great England youth team striker do away from Pep/Arteta’s weirdo systems? Could he flourish? Or is he just going to be bang average everywhere he goes? Even if he is, that’s a perfectly good fee to pay for an average striker in the current market.

Rule number one in the transfer market is still: Avoid expensive fuckups. They did. —TK

My one criticism: I’d have gone for a younger, higher ceiling/lower floor winger with the Sarr money and squad spot. —KM

Ted: B+ | Ravi: B+ | Kim: B

Total outgoings — £100m

• Michael Olise — £50m + £5m add-ons

• Joachim Andersen — £25m + £5m add-ons

• Sam Johnstone — £10m

• Jordan Ayew — £5m

• Jairo Riedewald — Free

• James Tomkins — Free

• 2 senior players loaned (including Odsonne Eduard)

Good outgoings. They even got a fee for an Ayew at this stage in his career. I feel like they should have let Newcastle overpay for Guehi, though… then they would have been great. —TK

Olise rocks, but getting that much for 1. an injured guy, and 2. selling him abroad so you don’t have to play against him, is good business. The Andersen fee is a robbery of Fulham, and they cleared some dead wood. —KM

Ted: A- | Ravi: B | Kim: A-

A disciplined window from a team that knows where they are. Palace are not under serious relegation threat or in a window to push for Europe. They replaced their outgoings for less than they sold them for and took exactly one medium-risk gamble, on Nketiah. Pretty good! —KM

Overall grade: B+

Chelsea — Hahaha, this sucks man

Total incomings — £211m

• Pedro Neto — £51m + £3m add-ons

• Joao Felix — £42m + £4m add-ons

• Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall — £30m

• Filip Jorgensen — £21m

• Omari Kellyman — £19m

• Renato Veiga — £12m

• Marc Guiu — £5m

• Tosin Adarabioyo — Free

• Jadon Sancho — Loan, possible £25m buy obligation

• Aaron Anselmino (loaned out) — £15.5m

• Caleb Wiley (loaned out) — £8.5m

Alright, settle in… this may take a while. Chelsea’s first team has a lot of talent. They went into the summer not needing much, and their academy continues to produce outstanding players every year.

Pedro Neto is a huge mistake. He had a complicated knee injury, with a setback. These are immediate red flags for any deal with a large transfer fee attached to it. As is the fact that he’s had regular muscular injuries after the knee rehab. Then there’s the whole “he hasn’t actually been good the past couple of years” thing, which taints the analysis.

What I mean to say is, any time you can sign a pacey, dribbly wide forward with a history of knee and hamstring injuries, and lock him on a contract UNTIL 2031!, you gotta do it.

Joao Felix has the same agent as Pedro Neto, and the reported numbers on the Felix deal are fairly reasonable? He was good at Barcelona after years of underperformances in and around Madrid. Will he be good for Chelsea? At this price, it makes sense to find out.

Did Chelsea need him… well, no, but that hasn’t been their transfer M.O. for at least five years. Was this deal attached somehow to the Pedro Neto deal? Fully understanding Gestifute deals is difficult. See also: Joao Neves to PSG.

Dewsbury-Hall is a gift to Marseca. A new coach dowry, if you will. Bridgerton is a fine luxury player that might help unlock some deep blocks against the bottom half of the table. He doesn’t scream “Champions League quality,” but given the other bollocks going on, this one is mostly harmless?

Omari Kellyman? PSR fodder. Except it feels like Chelsea have taken the stance that PSR won’t matter for them, so why bother? From the outside, it’s impossible to see the joined-up thinking here.

Filip Jorgensen. Someone did analysis that said at one point this summer, Chelsea had something like NINE GKs on professional contracts floating around the club. What’s £21M for another one going to hurt, really?

What if GKs are like pokemon, and you gotta catch ‘em all?

Why are there so many questions?!?

Still going… Renato Veiga. Why are Chelsea paying £12M for a (young) Basel left back/defensive midfielder who wasn’t great last season? Is it to loan him out so he can play for them in two or three years time? Is it part of some grander scheme of buying all the best, incredibly young players in the world before anyone notices, and then reaping the payouts later when they develop into top class players? Because I think everyone has noticed.

Did they realise that the more of these players they buy, the harder it gets to generate top fees for them because everyone realises they’ll need to sell? And that the players all need to get minutes somewhere with very high levels of competition to continue developing, or their values will tank?

Do they realise that player development, even when tightly controlled, is highly variable? Injuries happen. Development can stall. Sometimes they learn to hate football, especially after terrible loans. Or working with bad coaches. Sometimes these highly competitive kids, who you paid eight figures for, just quit.

At least Chelsea have one of the best academies in world football, so they can leave the continued development of these players in good hands.

Except those guys left this summer too.

They have co-sporting directors and a packed recruitment group on payroll and still couldn’t get everyone they signed the last few seasons shuffled out to appropriate landing spots for the minutes they need to play so they can hopefully keep developing.

I, LIKE MOST SENSIBLE CHELSEA FANS, AM LOSING MY MIND.

tl;dr There are so many questions and assumptions stacked on top of each other, with so much risk to both the club and players involved, that at the end of the day you have to ask two questions:

What the fuck is going on here?
Who authorised this?

It’s not my problem, but someone is going to spend years cleaning up the mess. —TK

Ted said it all, huh? The concise version: This sucks man. These guys aren’t good. I don’t think a single guy on this list is better than the players they replaced. Money down a toilet. —KM

Ted: F | Ravi: D | Kim: D-

Total outgoings — £187.5m

• Ian Maatsen — £37.5m

• Conor Gallagher — £36m

• Lewis Hall — £28m + £7m add-ons

• Romelu Lukaku — £25m

• Omari Hutchinson — £20m + £2.5m add-ons

• Angelo Gabriel — £19m

• Hakim Ziyech — £2.5m

• Thiago Silva — Free

• Malang Sarr — Free

• Academy sales — Approx. £10m

• 5 senior players loaned (including Raheem Sterling)

Maatsen is PSR fodder and has a confusing fee, so that’s hard to parse. But he was a very capable left back on a Champions League finalist last season, so he’s good. Gallagher is also good and has also gone to another Champions League team for a fee that is too low versus his ability. The Lewis Hall sale was good business.

Lukaku is probably washed, so taking the money here is definitely the right option. Omari Hutchinson is a nice sale, especially for a guy that has the Townsend Forcefield on shots in effect, though he might be a +ev finisher? Whatever the case, more cash from the academy is good.

Ziyech and Sarr were just huge mismanagement casualties. —TK

OK, so the good news. Getting a fee that high for Lukaku is great. Angelo Gabriel was a profitable flip. Hutchinson was a sensible sale. They probably made enough from sales to avoid a transfer ban or points deduction.

But having to sell Maatsen at all is a massive L, especially given that Veiga is clearly not ready for primetime. Having to sell Gallagher instead of keeping him as your 4th midfielder to cover multiple positions/change games is probably a bigger L. It’s dumb that these guys aren’t still Chelsea players. —KM

Ted: C | Ravi: B | Kim: C

I would never accuse anyone of using illegal drugs without evidence. But if someone who was regularly abusing illegal drugs was put in charge of a large football club, the outcome would be roughly equivalent to what Chelsea have done this transfer window. Reckless, irresponsible, a bunch of nonsense. —KM

Overall grade: D

Everton — I get it, you’re broke

Total incomings — £41m

• Jake O’Brien — £17m

• Iliman Ndiaye — £15m

• Tim Iroegbunam — £9m

• Asmir Begovic — Free

• Armando Broja — Loan, £30m buy option

• Jesper Lindstrom — Loan, £18.5m buy option

• Orel Mangala — Loan, no buy option

• Jack Harrison — Loan, no buy option

With Everton, you have to grade on a bit of a curve. Given the finances, this is better than the worst case scenario. Jake O’Brien was a good pickup. Ndiaye is both flexible and intriguing.

Iroegbunam is probably a good pickup for his age, but he’s hated by spellcheckers and the fact that he’s slotted in already says a lot about the quality of that squad. So too does the fact that Seamus Coleman and Ashley Young still have contracts, which is probably the most concerning part of the summer, minus the whole, pesky ownership status of the club thing.

The old warlock (for those who are new round these parts, that’s Sean Dyche) has his work cut out for him. - TK

I like all the loans, and the guys they bought should be sellable in a year or good in the Championship, should either be required. I know that sounds pretty grim, I’m sorry. —KM

Ted: B | Ravi: C | Kim: B+

Total outgoings — £70m

• Amadou Onana — £50m

• Ben Godfrey — £10m

• Lewis Dobbin — £10m

• Andre Gomes — Free

• Dele Alli — Free

• 2 senior players loaned (including Neal Maupay)

Nice price for Onana. The rest is fine. —TK

I know they didn’t do anything besides not renew these players, but getting 2 dead high wage contracts off the books is very nice! —KM

Ted: B | Ravi: B | Kim: B+

Given their dogwater financial situation, I think Everton did a decent job of putting together what should be a better than relegation fodder team. I know they’ve been ass the first 2 games, but this all makes sense. I think they’ll stay up, and new owners will go into next summer with a decent platform to build on. —KM

Overall grade: B

Fulham — OK incomings, amazing outgoings

Total incomings — £94.5m

• Emile Smith Rowe — £27m + £7m add-ons

• Joachim Andersen — £25m + £5m add-ons

• Sander Berge — £20m + £5m add-ons

• Jorge Cuenca — £5.5m

• Ryan Sessegnon — Free

• Reiss Nelson — Loan, no buy option

I saw Fulham play in person at the end of last season, and the one thing that was top of mind coming into the summer was: They need to get younger. The age of that squad last year was creeping into “relegation candidates” territory, and needed some desperate refreshing.

Who knows if the McTominay rumours were true, but that was one bullet well and truly dodged if they were. And a note of caution around a process that nearly went badly wrong.

Anderson takes a solid CB who is good in the air and ports him across town into a nicer area of London. Fine, but 28. He’s been ever present though, so maybe he ages gracefully. Smith Rowe is promising, but the fee is £5-10M too much in guaranteed money for a lot of unknown.

I LOVED Sander Berge as a transfer from Genk back in 2020, but I think what we discovered is that he physical gifts that allowed him to excel in Belgium are swallowed up here in England, and his output has been severely muted. New information, new analysis. Could he be better in a better team? Maybe. Are Fulham going to be a better team? 😬 

Maybe all the attackers find the juvenation button, Fulham score goals, and this window looks great, but it feels very average right now. —TK

These aren’t terrible signings, but that’s £10m too much for all of those top 3 dudes. Why is everyone on this team a disappointing former wonderkid? I think Tony Khan has been playing too much Football Manager 2018. —KM

Ted: C | Ravi: B+ | Kim: C+

Total outgoings — £68.7m

• Joao Palhinha — £43.5m + £4m add-ons

• Jay Stansfield — £15m + £5m add-ons

• Tim Ream — Free

• Kevin Mbabu — Free

• Tosin Adarabioyo — Free

• Bobby Decordova-Reid — Free

• Terence Kongolo — Free

• Willian — Free

• Academy sales — Approx. £1.2m

Great, inexplicable fee on Palhinha. A good fee for Stansfield too, though he’s always going to carry a young forward price premium. This is good - extremely necessary - squad churn. —TK

I’m way higher than Ted and Ravi on the outgoings here. I think those are mega bonkers fees for the two guys they sold, and they were disciplined in shedding a lot of high-wage dead weight instead of renewing their contracts. —KM

Ted: A- | Ravi: A- | Kim: A++

For a team expected to be in the bottom half, it’s not encouraging when a team has excellent sales, but questionable purchases. I can’t be too harsh with the criticism but I also don’t think they got much better. —KM

Overall grade: B

Ipswich — The yo-yo masters have arrived

Total incomings — £130m

• Omari Hutchinson — £20m + £2.5m add-ons

• Liam Delap — £15m + £5m add-ons

• Jack Clarke — £15m + £5m add-ons

• Jacob Greaves — £15m + £3m add-ons

• Dara O’Shea — £12m + £3m add-ons

• Arijanet Muric — £10m + £5m add-ons

• Sammie Szmodics — £9m + £2m add-ons

• Chiedozie Ogbene — £8m

• Conor Townsend — £750k

• Ben Johnson — Free

• Jens Cajuste — Loan, £12m buy option

• Kalvin Phillips — Loan, no buy option

You have to view this window for Ipswich through a particular lens, and if you do, I kind of love it? One of the huge problems with being a promoted team is budget management. Do you try and buy players at Premier League prices in order attempt to stay up and endanger your future? Do you buy quality players on the cheap in preparation of going back down and look to yo-yo for a few years? Or do you do what Luton did last season, and take the money and run?

Ipswich are threading the needle here between “invest to stay up” and “invest to yo-yo” and did about as good as job as you can do with an extremely difficult task, including kicking a lot of the fees into add-ons. The leap from League One to the Premier League is large. Are the players they landed good? Potentially — almost certainly at the Championship level. They only need one or two to spike in the Premier League and they can easily pay for the whole window.

Ipswich have given themselves a real chance without running the risk of bankruptcy, which is better than any promoted team did last year. —TK

I agree with the above, and also want to add that I’m hoping for a Kalvin Phillips resurgence. He was an extremely fun player at his peak, and it’s unfortunate that he’s had such bad fitness issues lately. A really good zero risk, high potential reward loan pickup for Ipswich. —KM

Ted: A | Ravi: C | Kim: A-

Total outgoings — £1m

• Vaclav Hladky — Free

• Janoi Donacien — Free

• Dominic Ball — Free

• Panutche Camara — Free

• Kayden Jackson — Free

• Sone Aluko — Free

• Freddie Ladapo — Free

• Academy sales — Approx. £1m

• 3 senior players (including Marcus Harness)

Thank you for your promotion service, all you fine gentlemen. Best of luck in your next endeavours. —TK

Ted: N/A | Ravi: N/A | Kim: N/A

Congratulations to Ipswich on signing guys they’ll eventually sell for a profit and building a future 100 point team in the Championship. They’re getting relegated and that’s just fine. —KM

Overall grade: B+