Chelsea will never stop buying attackers

Hello, and welcome to the Friday grab bag. Before we get to games we’re watching and stuff we’re reading, a very fun Chelsea update.

Chelsea were confirmed to have passed PSR this week, clearing the runway for them to continue going sicko mode in the transfer market. Despite all their recent spending, they’ll probably decide they need to continue reinforcing the squad with new players to remain competitive for Champions League places, since this year’s signings have mostly sucked.

João Félix has made 11 Premier League appearances, though mostly as a sub, and he’s only got 5 total 90s. In that time he’s taken a very high volume of low-quality shots and done nothing else of note, leading to a radar that looks like this.

High xG and shots per 90, hooray! Except check out that shot OBV. It’s in the toilet, among the absolute worst in the league. He’s also not making much of a contribution to the team beyond occasionally letting one rip from 18 yards. Hate to say we told you so but uhh… we told you so.

Félix already looks like £42m+ in fees down the drain, but according to Gazzetta dello Sport, AC Milan would like to at least temporarily relieve them of the pain that is paying Félix’s wages.

Between passing PSR and this summer’s marquee signing looking like a colossal flop, the Blues want to give it another shot with a high profile, high priced winger. The Ornacle says they’re looking at Alejandro Garnacho of Manchester United and Jamie Gittens of Borussia Dortmund, among others.

BlueCo will never stop going in. And while their transfer activity remains wildly entertaining, I think they could probably stand to take a bit of advice from Michael Jordan.

Ted’s weekend gambling piece is out for premium subscribers here. He had a good midweek slate, +2.5, taking him to +17 on the season. This weekend’s analysis contains some picks that might be surprising to you if you’re not real up on Gambling Math: Bournemouth over Newcastle, Brentford over Liverpool, and Aston Villa over Arsenal.

The reason I’m just giving the picks away here is they’re not what the gambling newsletter is for. You’re going to learn a lot more from the thought process behind why those picks are being made than you are from just seeing some picks. If you’d like to see the explanations of the lines and market-implied model odds, you can upgrade to premium here.

We’re also currently running a promotion with Bet105.eu. If you sign up with our link and create an account, you’ll get better prices on bets on English Championship games between 1-6pm UK time.

Games We’re Watching

Atalanta vs. Napoli — If you are usually a Prem Only kind of person, I very highly recommend you make time for this game. Two of Serie A’s three main title contenders, both playing excellent football at the moment.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Borussia Dortmund — At this point, it seems fair to say that Dortmund are not a very good team. The good news for them is the race for 4th in the Bundesliga is absolutely wide open. It’s also easy to recommend their games in good conscience; even when they stink, they do it in a way that’s very fun.

Brentford vs. Liverpool — I’m just a big time Brentford Enjoyer, even when they sit deep in a compact shape against a big club. Nothing better than one of those quick Mbeumo-Wissa counter-attacks.

Getafe vs. Barcelona — If you haven’t noticed, Barca are winless in 3 La Liga games and down to 3rd. 😬

Lille vs. Nice — Two Champions League place contenders. I really love the combination of prospect spotting and guy remembering that these teams offer. Yeah, there are up and coming youngsters on these teams, but remember Andre Gomes and Tanguay Ndombele?

Stuff We’re Reading

Gabrielle Marcotti at ESPN was linked yesterday, but I want to reiterate that you should read this piece about the deflating transfer market.

Sebastian Bush at Grace On Football wrote about the difficult task Ruben Amorim has in changing Manchester United’s style of play.

Jake Entwistle at Scouted has a look at some left-footed center backs that you might see make a move soon.

Max Rushden at The Guardian argues for Ange Postecoglou to get more time at Tottenham.

Paul Harvey at American Soccer Analysis was inspired by something Ravi said on our podcast and looked into how much consistency in team selection matters in MLS.

Felipe Cardenas at The Athletic says that Neymar to Chicago is a really bad idea for everyone.

Seth Vertelney at Pro Soccer Wire details a major MLS rule change, for those of you who love insanely complex rulesets.

Matt Dallinson at The Cutback disagrees with a proposal for Celtic and Rangers women to join the WSL.

Greg Lever at Not The Top 20 proposes 8 realistic transfers that could make the difference in the Championship promotion race.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.”