The Chelsea Academy Saga

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On July 4th, it was reported that long-time Academy Manager (recently Head of Football Development) Neil Bath would be leaving Chelsea. This sent ripples through the English footballing world, as Bath was responsible for many of the best footballing prospects of the last 20 years, including many who formed the cornerstones of England’s recent footballing success.

Producing great academy players consistently is hard work. Humans are complicated, and young athletes doubly so. It’s also undoubtedly one of the most important elements for top football teams to have these days, and Chelsea’s academy has been exceptional for a long time now. The whole thing was odd enough that I decided to ask around and learn more.

The public statements tell us Neil Bath was ready to take a break, but other accounts suggest that Jim Fraser and Bath were very close, and Fraser leaving pushed Bath to make this choice as well. Weighing up 31 years at Chelsea building something special versus new management and doing it without one of your close friends and valued co-workers is a tough one.

One person suggested the club’s own analysis indicated that for all the hype around the academy, it produced few viable first team players. They also felt others who went on to become top players (Declan Rice, Jamal Musiala, etc) got away from the club. There was also some sentiment that the academy’s ability to determine which 15-year-olds would blossom into top stars and which ones would be player trading fodder wasn’t great.

Finally, there was allegedly some feeling that other academies had bypassed Chelsea.

All of the above dovetails with what we’ve seen from Chelsea’s recruitment policy. They have been on a prolonged youth buying spree from around the world over the last two summers. If their feeling really is that it’s more straightforward to identify talent and pick it up cheaply in South American, Africa, and Eastern Europe, then the transfer policy makes a lot of sense. I’m not saying it will be successful… but at the very least, it’s logical.

From my perspective, there are a few flaws in what’s coming out from the club perspective. First of all, Chelsea’s academy was unequivocally good. Like, in the top 5-10 academies in the world good for a very long time (at least in football terms) good. And having a productive academy at Chelsea’s level is a godsend for almost any team. Not only does it tend to produce far cheaper talent than the transfer market on lower wages, it also delivers home grown players to fill out the squad for UEFA competitions.

And man… fans fucking love academy kids that break into the first team.

Some of what was reported from the Chelsea/Boehly/Clearlake side is clearly a misunderstanding of what is possible at the academy level.

You can’t hang on to every player with potential. If the rest of the world knows you have a good academy, they will compete to steal away whomever they can.

Additionally, predicting exactly who will work out when a player is 15 years old is not just spectacularly hard, it’s impossible. The best you can do is provide an environment to help them succeed and reach their potential, while keeping the ones you think have both the talent and the mentality to be stars. You’re going to miss some. Welcome to dealing with humans.

The bigger issue comes down to evaluating the actual production of players by the academy. The suggestion the academy wasn’t producing enough players for the Chelsea first team (or given the whims and follies of various Chelsea head coaches — teams LIKE the Chelsea first team) is frankly mad.

Is this academy currently producing productive players for Chelsea or teams like Chelsea?
Holy shit, yes! For most top teams, if your academy is delivering one Champions League level player every other year and sundry other slightly less talented, that’s a huge win. Here’s Chelsea’s recent track record:

• Chelsea just sold Ian Maatsen (age 22) for £35Mish.

• Lewis Hall (19) was sold to Newcastle for £28M + add-ons

• Omari Hutchinson (20) to Ipswich for £23M.

• Levi Colwill (21) is probably worth £40M.

• Billy Gilmour (23) is a Premier League midfielder at Brighton.

• Conor Gallagher (24) is a first teamer and England international worth £50-60M.

• Marc Guehi (23) was a Chelsea academy player until 2021, when he moved to Crystal Palace. He’s also an England international.

• Hudson-Odoi was a first teamer as a teenager before injury issues curtailed his career.

Declan Rice. Mason Mount (£55M). Reece James. Dom Solanke. Tammy Abraham. Fikayo Tomori. Loftus-Cheek. Andreas Christensen.

There is a LONG list of CL/PL players and substantial transfer fees, and that’s just for players currently at peak age or younger. It also ignores the kids that were sold to smaller teams/leagues and the mountain range of loan fees generated during player development.

Running a productive academy is hard. Maybe the combination of ownership change and work personalities meant it was time for Bath to seek out new challenges, and wish everyone else the very best in their future endeavours. But that track record of excellence is impossible to argue with.

That Chelsea Academy under Neil Bath was great, to the extent that it helped change the trajectory of English football for the better.

I talked to enough people around the industry who own clubs and are deeply dissatisfied with their academy production to know Neil Bath won’t be short of job offers and new opportunities after this.

What will happen to Chelsea’s production line of talent over the next decade remains to be seen.

—TK

News and rumours

• 19-year-old Portugal and Benfica midfielder João Neves appears to be the subject of some hefty transfer bids. A Bola reports that Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester United have both made bids in excess of €60m, which were rejected. Benfica says they’re holding out for his entire €120m release clause. I’d have to spend some time looking at similar transfers and watching games to decide if he’s worth that much, but to just answer the question of whether he’s good enough to play for the biggest clubs in the world: Yes.

• Ipswich sure liked what they saw when they were scouting Hull. In addition to signing Liam Delap and fighting for Jaden Philogene, they’re also about to sign center back Jacob Greaves for £15m. He’s a left footer with solid aerial and passing numbers, looks like a nice pickup.

• Manchester Unijted would like to compliment Joshua Zirkzee and Matthijs de Ligt with another Dutch signing, Xavi Simons. Maybe they’ll look into Jeremie Frimpong and Brian Brobbey while they’re at it.

• Fab says that Monaco midfielder Youssuf Fofana has rejected Nottingham Forest to sign for AC Milan, but Milan haven’t sorted out the fee yet. He’s a solid all-rounder who doesn’t excel at any one thing, which could be good or bad depending on the players around him.

• Crystal Palace would like to avoid losing all of their good players in one summer, having rejected bids for Eberechi Eze and Marc Guehi. Those players might be slightly less chill about that once they’re done with England duty.

• Arsenal have been linked to Spain and Real Sociedad midfielder Mikel Merino, a deal that doesn’t make much sense to me. I don’t think he’d be more than a respectable backup, he’s already 28 years old (at least until he’s 29), and the fee being quoted is €25m. The Gunners can do better.

• The former heir apparent to Harry Kane, Troy Parrott, is moving on from Tottenham. He had a solid campaign on loan at Excelsior last season, and AZ Alkmaar have signed him up for €8m. Perhaps an extremely positive development for Ireland fans.