The case for Darwin Núñez to Arsenal

It wouldn’t be the last week of August if we didn’t have some extremely silly transfer rumours to parse through. On Tuesday, Chilean journofluencer Eduardo Hagn suggested that Darwin Núñez would like to leave Liverpool, followed by Fichajes reporter Javier Parra Peña dropping the BOMBAZOOOOOO: EL ARSENAL QUIERE FICHAR A DARWIN NUNEZ.

I have no idea if Arsenal are interested in Núñez, or if Liverpool are trying to sell him. Hagn admits he doesn’t either, and I suspect Peña is either parroting agentspeak or getting tricked by someone who’s having a laugh, rather than speaking to Edu Gaspar himself.

But this is a fun rumour to explore for a few reasons.

• One, it’s believable that Liverpool would listen to offers for him. He hasn’t played a big part in their first two games of the season and has been mildly disappointing since arriving from Benfica.

• Two, Arsenal could use a change of pace option at center forward, and theoretically have budget for such a thing after selling Eddie Nketiah to Crystal Palace for £25-30m.

• Three, Darwin Núñez is an extremely polarizing player who is not obviously or obviously not worth a big fee.

Núñez is outrageously physically talented and intense, but he is not the most elegant-looking footballer. He takes the occasional shocking touch and plays like his pants are on fire. A lowlights tape of Núñez will contain some of the most shocking misses and turnovers you’ve ever seen in your life.

Last season, he got into some excellent shooting locations, but underperformed his xG by 3.57.

Besides getting a high volume of high-quality shots, Núñez presses like crazy, creates quite a bit of value for his team with his dribbling, and sets up a lot of chances for his teammates. He had 8 assists in 2047 minutes, and he averaged 0.15 xA per shot assist, which is really good. This is a guy who inarguably does a lot of stuff well.

Liverpool, of course, do not have to sell, and certainly not to a direct rival. I feel similarly about this to how I did about the Luis Diaz rumour. They have had a notably quiet window, and this late on, it’s unlikely that they’re looking to fund a huge move for someone else. The difference, though, is that Diaz is currently starting matches and Núñez is not. Maybe that’s for preseason fitness reasons, but maybe it isn’t.

But it’s entirely possible they don’t rate Núñez anymore and want to extract maximum value before he spends half a season sitting on the bench. This excellent piece by Josh Williams explored what Núñez will need to improve on to fit into Arne Slot’s system, and I don’t think it’s ridiculous to hypothesize that Liverpool have decided he simply doesn’t work in their team.

Meanwhile, Mikel Arteta could be looking at what his mentor is doing with Erling Haaland, then looking over at Liverpool’s Diet Haaland, and pondering: “What if I can fix him? What if I have the technology?”

Liverpool have paid somewhere between £65m-85m for Núñez, depending on whether he’s hit his incentives from the deal. If we assume the Reds have paid the maximum, they’ll need a fee of £51m this window to break even for PSR.

Given the £65m Tottenham paid for Dominic Solanke and the £70m Chelsea have reportedly been quoted for Victor Osimhen, I’m guessing Liverpool would start by asking for something more in that neighborhood. If someone were to buy Núñez in the next three days, something like £55m guaranteed + £10m in performance-based incentives feels like the right price to me.

To be clear, we have no good reporting that a transfer is likely, and it seems rather late in the window for such a big deal to happen out of nowhere. But if I’m running Liverpool, and my coach has told me he doesn’t rate Núñez, I’m selling for that price. And if I’m running Arsenal, I’m betting he improves my team and I can get serious value out of that deal.

This is all pure fiction, but I genuinely would like the move from everyone’s perspective.

—KM

Rumours and News

• Italian media is hot and heavy on Federico Chiesa to Liverpool right now, including one of the journalists who was early on the Calafiori news as well. Kim’s been thoughtful about what Chiesa could bring to the right team previously, while I don’t quite think I understand the shape of Liverpool under Arne Slot enough yet to comment. What’s clear is that Juventus desperately need someone to take Chiesa’s salary off their books because they have already purchased other shiny objects.
  
  About an hour before we usually press send on the newsletter, Paul Joyce waded in, legitimising the Italian reporting and suggesting the deal is a very specific £10.9M. Exciting stuff.

• Evidence from “watching the games” suggests that Barcelona, despite being a mess financially and utter drama queens, are actually pretty good on the pitch this season. This is the type of information one might be inclined to note, should one be wagering on future Barcelona matches.

• Kim’s head can barely fit through doors this week, as her fan fiction about a potential Raheem Sterling ←>Jadon Sancho exchange of (expensive) misfit toys immediately captured the media’s imagination. Not that the actual parties are legitimately discussing such things, because NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING.
  
  Except that both Chelsea and Raheem’s agent contacted every big club in their address book to check for interest. We know that because they told everyone that’s exactly what they did.

• Leicester City have signed Bilal El Khannous from Genk to fill the Bridgerton Dewsbury-Hall shaped hole in their midfield. Feels believable.

• Brighton have signed Ferdi Kadioglu, a left back from Fenerbahce. I have LOVED Brighton’s window, but this one gives me pause as the only hard and fast rule I have about Turkey is that I will let other people sign players from that league, though I am happy to sell players to the teams there at inflated prices. It’s also a rumour that felt weird early in the summer, but turned out to be true.

• At this point in the window — and it is LATE — Chelsea’s potential moves for striker include the obvious Victor Osimhen, the injured Dominic Calvert-Lewin, and the gambler Ivan Toney. Oh, and Jhon Duran’s agent would like him included in this list too. Osimhen is the only one who makes actual sense, but for once Chelsea are acting sensibly here and refusing to pay Napoli’s asking price. I am amused and intrigued, and Chelsea are already one of my fun vibes-watch teams this season.

• If I were in charge of Newcastle’s transfer policy, I simply would refuse to sign Marc Guehi for £70M. It is a thing one could do… but it is also a thing one could NOT do.

• Speaking of which, I drove a Bentley Conti GTC along Highway 1 in California on my extended holiday. My god, what a roar on that engine. And what a car. And what a road to drive it on. Should the opportunity arise in your life to do something similar, I highly recommend it.
  
  I also just bought a used, bottom spec Skoda Enyaq to drive my kids to school.

• Liverpool signed Georgian GK Giorgi Mamardashvili, who has had a bit of a rough start to the season, but was Rather Good™ last year for Valencia. He will continue to toil for Valencia this year, but is now part of the future Alisson Ramses Becker protection plan.

• One thing that happens when you follow this stuff day after day is you notice teams and agents talking via the press. Take the James Ward-Prowse rumour at the start of the week that West Ham were actively looking to get rid of him before deadline day. Then Sky reported a day later that West Ham would merely “listen to offers,” but are not actively looking to sell him.
  
  JWP is an odd one, as these days he’s a bit like letting Rory Delap wander vaguely around midfield just so he can take long throws, except for JWP it’s set pieces and corners. Maybe he just needs more rest.

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