Can Barcelona score without Lewandowski?

I didn’t expect Barcelona’s home La Liga match against Mallorca on Tuesday to be a particularly notable one, and when I first saw the 1-0 score, I assumed it was a pretty uneventful one. As it turns out, Barcelona had 40 shots in the game, the most in La Liga in 15 years.

The highlights wouldn’t give you much of an indication of what happened here either. Barca look like they were not quite at their best, but found a decisive goal, in a pretty normal game.

But the race chart looks crazy. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen one that looks like this, with tons of low-value shots and, for a 40 shot game, surprisingly long stretches of not getting any shots at all.

The shot map has so many blocked efforts that, if I didn’t know that there were 40 shots here, my brain wouldn’t come close to registering that they were there. If someone asked me, quick guess without counting, how many shots do you think are here, I think I’d say 25?

As a result, Mallorca goalkeeper Leo Román did not have as much to do as you’d expect in a game where an opponent shot 40 times. He was good, for sure — someone who had 1.84 GSAA every game would be the best goalkeeper in the world — but only two of the saves were exceptional ones.

It’s a pretty similar game to the one Bartłomiej Drągowski had for Empoli against Atalanta in 2019, known for breaking two records — most saves in a game in Serie A, and most xG in a game without scoring in Opta’s database (5.86). Even though he made 17 saves, StatsBomb only credited Drągowski with 1.90 GSAA on that occasion.

Those games had a couple more obvious things in common — poor finishing and a lot of blocked shots. So it’s probably notable that Barcelona was without Robert Lewandowski in this game due to injury, while Raphinha was rested. Barcelona do not have a true backup center forward, and played winger/attacking midfielder Ferran Torres in that position for this game. Torres wasn’t terrible — he had 4 shots for 0.41 xG, definitely acceptable for an out of position backup — but obviously he isn’t Lewandowski.

As Ted and other people he’s employed have tried to tell you for the last 15 years or so, finishing is pretty random outside the extreme edge cases. 95% of players will regress to the mean and, over the span of their career, score at right around their xG. If Barca keep generating 40 shots and 3+ xG per match, they’re going to be fine.

But Real Madrid and Inter Milan are a lot better than Mallorca, and this match should probably have Barca worried for upcoming trophy-deciding matches in the Copa del Rey and UEFA Champions League. Barca can dominate games in every aspect but finishing without Lewandowski in the lineup, but I’m not sure they can beat the best of the best if they don’t have their most reliable finisher.

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