Can a depleted Bournemouth really compete for Champions League?

Bournemouth pulled off the headline result of last week, smashing Nottingham Forest 5-0. They’re now very much a part of the race for Champions League places, rocking a better goal differential than Forest, Newcastle, and Aston Villa, as well as the same +15 that Chelsea are on.

They’ve done it with a very well-balanced style that makes me think they can maintain their level of performance. There’s no gimmick to “find out” with Bournemouth. They’re not wildly underperforming underlying numbers, riding a hot player, or playing extreme attacking/defensive tactics. Bournemouth are just A Good Team.

In the “stuff we’re reading” section at the bottom of this newsletter, there’s a link to a piece about the modern schedule leading to more injuries and how it is now very much a legitimate excuse for many teams’ poor form. Injuries are the biggest reason Tottenham Hotspur are willing to give Ange Postecoglou more time, and why they’re not getting any heat for keeping him around.

But Bournemouth’s injury list is just as bad as Spurs, or any other team for that matter. If this team completely fell apart and barely avoided relegation, Andoni Iraola would not get a lick of blame for that. It would be expected for a team with this injury list. Just look at it!

No one’s going to criticize Bournemouth or write them off for top 5 if they get waxed by league leaders Liverpool this weekend. I think they’ve already accomplished a lot by achieving positive results against Chelsea, Newcastle and Forest over the last 3 rounds with a squad this thin.

I’m concerned that a big downturn is inevitable. It’ll be the coolest story of the season if it never comes.

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Over on the premium betting newsletter, Ted explains why he likes Bournemouth against Liverpool this weekend, despite my reservations. There’s explanations for why he’s betting the way he is on every other Premier League and Championship match as well.

Games we’re watching

Brest vs. PSG — They’ll win Ligue 1 anyway, but it’s funny watching PSG try to sort out what to do with a squad that has way too many wingers/10s, and not enough anything else. They’re playing Lee Kang-In as an 8 and Warren Zaire-Emery as a RB. It’s unholy.

Atlético Madrid vs. Mallorca — Despite their recent freefall and -7 GD, Mallorca are somehow still in a European qualifying place and theoretically good enough to give Atléti some problems.

Frankfurt vs. Wolfsburg — Frankfurt have stumbled in their last two games without Omar Marmoush, and Wolfsburg have been sneaky good this year. Keep an eye on Mohamed Amoura, who’s having an excellent season.

AC Milan vs. Inter Milan — This game always gets wacky when it seems like one of the Milan sides should comfortably defeat the other. Inter is several orders of magnitude better at the moment, but Milan have been full of drama this year.

Arsenal vs. Manchester City — The obvious headliner and a must-win for Arsenal to keep the title race remotely interesting.

Stuff we’re reading

Kyle Boas at Tactics Journal on why injuries are a legitimate excuse now. I am not optimistic that anyone with power in the game will start to prioritize quality of the product over quick money makers.

Michael Caley and Mike Goodman at Bloomberg wrote about how Chelsea and Barcelona exercise different varieties of financial engineering, and the different ways they might get into big trouble.

Bill Connelly at ESPN wraps up the Champions League league phase and has his best XI.

Jaymes Monte at StatsBomb looked into how long ball tactics are evolving and who’s using them effectively.

Scott Martin at Total Football Analysis breaks down Bayern Munich’s pressing tactics and points out some potential weaknesses for opponents to exploit.

Jessy Parker Humphreys at The Cutback looked at Chelsea women’s new midfield duo and how they got the better of Arsenal.

Sam White at Maldini’s Chain covered Chloe Kelly’s move from Man City women to Arsenal and the importance of international football to top players.

Tom Garry at The Guardian looked at every WSL team’s January window and how they fared.

Hayden Clarkin at The Transit Guy argued that the poor transit infrastructure and fan experience at the 2026 World Cup will embarrass the United States.

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